1、 Price trend

 

According to the data in the bulk list of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on May 1 was 8533 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on May 31 was 9916 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 16.21% this month.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Product: the supply of caprolactam in China is tight this month, and there are few spot products. The enterprise is active in price hike. In addition, the price of caprolactam is rising due to the rising price of raw materials. The price began to rise sharply in the first ten days of May, and gradually stabilized from the middle of May to the end of the month. As of the end of the month, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9400 yuan / ton, cash was delivered, and the manufacturer’s capacity was 300000 tons. The actual transaction was negotiable. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 10200 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 10200 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 10200 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted.

 

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Industrial chain: raw material pure benzene rose 19.21% this month. *** Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene five times this month, with a total increase of 700 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. This month, the pure benzene market was mainly driven by crude oil and positive external market. With the recovery of public health events, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. But at present, the domestic price is higher than the import price, which restrains the sharp rise of domestic pure benzene price.

 

*** There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Caprolactam analysts believe that this month, due to cost hikes, caprolactam spot supply is tight, leading to price increases. In the later stage, if the cost is stable and the supply increases, the pressure on suppliers will increase. It depends on the follow-up of downstream polymerization plants. It is expected that caprolactam market will mainly be sorted and operated in the short term.

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1、 Price trend:

 

The crude benzene commodity index at May 31 was 43.87, unchanged from yesterday, 66.72% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 43.65% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

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2、 Market analysis:

 

In May 2020, crude benzene market rose in shock. The factory price in North China was 2250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 2801.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 24.52%.

 

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in May 2020

 

Price increase after date increase unit: yuan / ton

May 6, 3000200 yuan / ton

May 9, 3150, 150 yuan / ton

May 18, 3250100 yuan / ton

May 21, 3350, 100 yuan / ton

May 27, 3500, 150 yuan / ton

 

In May 2020, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene for five times, with a cumulative increase of 700 yuan / ton. By the end of the month, Sinopec had implemented 3500 yuan / ton of pure benzene. This month, the pure benzene market was mainly driven by crude oil and positive external market. With the recovery of public health events, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. However, at present, the domestic price is higher than the import price, which restrains the sharp rise of domestic pure benzene price; in May, the external market of pure benzene rose sharply, and the import of pure benzene in South Korea rose by 74.33 USD / ton, or 22.96%; the import of pure benzene in East China rose by 66 USD / ton, or 19.35%

 

In May, international oil prices were generally good, oil producing countries continued to push forward production reduction activities, and the demand for crude oil and refined oil rose to a certain extent. However, the market is still in a state of oscillation, and the uncertainty of trade relations affects the oil price. Compared with April 30, Brent oil price increased by 14.71 USD / barrel, or 74.78%; WTI oil price increased by 13.99 USD / barrel, or 64.03%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 32.385 USD / barrel, or 48.51%; WTI oil price decreased by 24.93 USD / barrel, or 41.02%.

 

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5.1 after the holiday, the bidding price of crude benzol has been greatly increased. At the beginning of the month, the crude oil has gone up, the bulk commodity has gone up as a whole, and the price of pure benzene has gone up, which is good for the crude benzol Market. The price adjustment of crude benzol bidding on April 30 before the holiday was shelved for various reasons, and after the holiday, the bidding price has been greatly increased due to the favorable fundamentals. The following downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have high cost pressure, high crude benzene inventory and weak purchasing interest, which have double effects on crude benzene entering the high consolidation period, and the market is stable. In recent years, some coking enterprises in Shandong and Shanxi have been limited in starting operation and the operating rate has been reduced, but the crude benzene supply has not been greatly affected, the social inventory is relatively sufficient, the enthusiasm of traders to enter the market is relatively low, the market is slightly cold, although the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene has slightly increased, the overall operating rate is still at a low level, and the demand for crude benzene is limited. As of the 29th, the mainstream price of crude benzene in Shandong was 2800 yuan / ton, which was increased by 600 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

 

The price of styrene in the downstream product market in Shandong Province was 5100 yuan / ton on May 1, and 5416.67 yuan / ton on May 29, up 6.21% this month. The highest price of this month is from May 19 to 24, with a price of 5500 yuan / ton. At present, the rise of styrene is mainly affected by crude oil, and the actual spot shipments are relatively small. Aniline: the price of aniline was 4800 yuan / ton on May 1, 4466.67 yuan / ton on May 29, down 6.94% this month. Aniline fell twice this month, while the rest remained stable. The MDI and auxiliary operating rate in the downstream of aniline are still low, and the demand for aniline is insufficient.

 

The aftermarket business community believes that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil producing countries are considering extending the production reduction period to the end of 2020. OPEC will hold another meeting on June 10 to continue to pay attention to the production reduction meeting. And oil price is not only affected by supply and demand, but also by economic constraints. Uncertainty in trade relations could trigger oil price shocks. Crude benzene inventory is high in the near future, the demand for downstream hydrogenated benzene is general, lack of demand support, crude benzene price is mainly high consolidation, follow-up still need to focus on the trend of crude oil and pure benzene.

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According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, affected by the two-way negative impact of cost and demand, the market of ethyl acetate in East China gradually weakened this week. As of May 29, the average price of ethyl acetate in East China was 5375 yuan / ton, down 1.6% from the same period last week.

 

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From the perspective of production cost, the decline of acetic acid price eased the production pressure of enterprises to a certain extent, but the price of ethyl acetate also declined. At the beginning of the week, jinyimeng plant in Shandong Province shut down, mainly consuming inventory, and the decline of supply side slowed down the downward trend of the price of ethyl acetate to a certain extent; the terminal market just needed to purchase, large orders were rarely traded, small single negotiations, and the market was bearish Sentiment spread, production enterprises more profit shipping.

 

In terms of raw materials, the weak market of acetic acid declined, the supply of the industry was expected to improve significantly, the downstream market was not smooth in receiving goods, and the two-way negative supply and demand led to the continuous decline of acetic acid price; the ethanol market was stable and strong, with fewer enterprises in stock, higher corn prices, higher production costs, more goods and less sales, which had a certain positive support for ethyl acetate.

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International: affected by the international epidemic, the supply and demand of international ethyl acetate are weak, and the regional price difference is large, among which the European port is about 1000 US dollars / ton, and the North American market port price is about 615 US dollars / ton.

 

According to the ethyl acetate analyst of business association, the weak market of domestic ethyl acetate is hard to change in the short term, the upstream and downstream support is insufficient, the industry starts not high, but the market turnover is less, the enterprise sales pressure and inventory pressure are obvious, and it is expected that the operation will be weak in the short term.

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Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply in May, and the market performance of DOP was strong. As of May 29, the price of DOP in East China was 7066.67 yuan / ton, up 12.77% from 6266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 2.97% from the same period last year. Since April, the cost of DOP raw materials has increased, and DOP prices have risen in shock. However, since May, PVC market has rebounded sharply, supporting the strong rise of DOP.

 

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Cost factor

 

It can be seen from the trend chart of raw materials of plasticizer DOP that in April and may, the price of DOP raw materials octanol rose sharply, while the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply. DOP raw material prices rise, DOP costs rise, DOP rising momentum, DOP market is good.

 

Industrial chain factors

 

From the price trend chart of PVC and DOP, it can be seen that the price of PVC fluctuated and remained stable in April. Although the DOP market rose in general, the momentum of the rise was insufficient, and the DOP market fell in late April. Since May, the economic environment has picked up, PVC demand has increased, PVC prices have risen all the way, which is good for DOP market, and DOP prices have risen strongly.

 

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Market overview and future expectation

 

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at the business club, believes that since April, affected by the rise of raw material prices and DOP costs, DOP prices have rebounded from the bottom in early April and have risen all the way. From May, the macro-economy recovered, and the demand backlog in the early stage was released. In May, the demand for PVC rose sharply, and the demand for DOP rose correspondingly. In May, the DOP market showed strong performance. For the aftermarket, with the release of the pre backlog demand, the market demand in June was relatively stable, and the upward momentum of DOP was weakened. At the end of May, DOP raw material price was adjusted by shocks, and the downward pressure of DOP market was increased. Generally speaking, the demand support of aftermarket was insufficient, the cost of DOP was reduced, and the downward pressure of the upward momentum of DOP market was increased. DOP prices are expected to fall slightly in June.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of May 28, the reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream area of the initial and high-end is around 300-400 yuan / ton, and the price has been basically stable in the past two weeks. On May 27, the phosphorus ore commodity index was 71.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 38.99% from 117.80 (2012-07-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 39.88% from 51.38, the lowest point on December 24, 2018. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Product: in late May, the market of phosphorus ore in our country did not rise significantly. In addition, the market has been in a weak trend in the recent traditional off-season, and the factory’s shipment volume is average. After many mines in Guizhou and other places reduced the price of phosphorus ore by 10-20 yuan / ton in early May, the overall market is mainly in stable operation at a low level, and the supply and demand in the market is basically balanced.

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the latest price of phosphate rock in China on May 28, 2020:

 

Enterprise name grade specification date price (yuan / ton) remarks

Guizhou Fuquan Huifa 30% raw ore, May 28, 350 yuan, factory price

Guizhou Fuquan Huifa 28% raw ore May 28 310 yuan factory price

Platform price of 30% raw ore of Guizhou Kaiyang Mining Co., Ltd., 310 yuan on May 28th

30% of the original ore of Xifeng Mining Co., Ltd. in Guizhou Province

Guangxi songgan trade 30% raw ore May 28 350 yuan factory price

Guangxi songgan trade 28% raw ore May 28 310 yuan factory price

30% of the raw ore of Guizhou kaiphosphate Mining Co., Ltd. on May 28, the price of car plate is 330 yuan

32% of raw ore of Guizhou kaiphosphate Mining Co., Ltd. 360 yuan of vehicle price on May 28

30% raw ore of Xinxin phosphate ore in Guizhou, May 28, 320 yuan car plate price

30% high phosphorus and low magnesium ore of Liushugou mining industry in Hubei Province

Yunnan phosphate 29% ammonium phosphate ore May 28 300 yuan car plate price

22% of the original ore of Guizhou Qidu Tiancheng Mining Co., Ltd. on May 28, 140 yuan of car plate price

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Guizhou: the reference quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 300-350 yuan / ton. Among them, the platform price of 30% phosphate rock in Guanglong Mining Co., Ltd. in Kaiyang, Guizhou is 310 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May; the vehicle price of 30% grade phosphate rock in Xifeng, Guizhou is 330 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May; the factory price of 28% grade phosphate rock in Huifa Mining Co., Ltd. in Fuquan, Guizhou is 310 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May, and the factory price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 350 yuan / ton compared with the end of the previous period Adjust 10 yuan / ton. Yunnan area: the quotation of 29% grade phosphate ore car plate in Yunnan is about 300 yuan / ton. Hubei area: the quotation of 30% grade phosphorus ore (high phosphorus and low magnesium ore) in Liushugou, Hubei Province is 400 yuan / ton. Guangxi region: the phosphorus ore market is in a weak position. The factory price of 28% grade phosphate rock in songgan trade is 310 yuan / ton, and the factory price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 350 yuan.

 

Industrial chain: in May, the operating rate of Yunnan increased, the market supply increased, and the price of yellow phosphorus gradually decreased, but the range was not very large. The main reason was that yellow phosphorus enterprises basically had no inventory, the on-site spot sales were OK, and the early orders of phosphorus enterprises were still sufficient. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16200-16700 yuan / ton. The quotation in Guizhou is about 16400-16500 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is about 16300-17000 yuan / ton. The overall market performance is average, the downstream procurement is more cautious, and traders mainly wait and see.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the analysis of business data analyst, since the beginning of this year, affected by many factors, 2 and March, as the spring planting season, is also the traditional peak season of phosphate rock, but it does not bring a strong rising market to the market. At this stage, it will enter June immediately, and the market has gradually turned into the off-season. It is expected that the follow-up market quotation of phosphate rock may lower slightly to prepare for the order accumulation in the second half of the year 。

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