On October 21, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 21st, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of the 600000 ton new plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of the petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of the petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of the aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, the domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 18, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 6 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 767-769 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 787-789 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The decline of external price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is stable temporarily.

On October 18, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States fell to US $53.78/barrel, or US $0.15. Brent crude oil futures price fell to US $59.42/barrel, or US $0.49. Measured by total domestic delivery, domestic oil demand in the United States was 20.8 million barrels / day, the highest level in September. 3.2% less than August, but 3.5% more than September 2018. As of September, the total oil demand is 20.5 million barrels per day, up 0.3% year-on-year, the highest level since 2007. The crude oil price has declined slightly, which has limited cost support impact on downstream petrochemical products, and the domestic p-xylene price trend is stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is around 5000-5100 yuan / ton. As of the 18th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 87.3%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 89.5%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and general transaction atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, which are affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China this week was temporarily stable, with the quotation of 180.00 yuan / ton, down 0.92% year on year. Overall, this week’s hydrochloric acid market was temporarily stable, with the hydrochloric acid commodity index at 47.37 on October 18

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

This week, the quotation of hydrochloric acid market manufacturers is temporarily stable, and the overall market is low. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 150 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; the weekend quotation of Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 280 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is 200 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; the weekend quotation of Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid is 60 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

(II) industrial chain:

The market price of upstream liquid chlorine is stable, which gives certain support to hydrochloric acid. The downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane are still mainly purchased according to the demand in the early stage. The hydrochloric acid market as a whole is still weak, the by-product acid shocks the market, the pressure of hydrochloric acid shipment is large, the quality of the by-product hydrochloric acid jointly produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good, and the production enterprises take the shipment as the purpose, and there are reverse freight shipments. On the whole, the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

III. future forecast

After the adjustment in September, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. Business analysts believe: upstream liquid chlorine is good in the near future, but downstream rare earth, fuel demand is still average, and by-product acid shocks the market. Business analysts think hydrochloric acid is still weak in the late consolidation market.

Trade name: phenol

East China market (October 16): 7750 yuan / ton

Trend chart of domestic phenol Market Price

Analysis: the domestic phenol market continues to be weak. The atmosphere in the market continues to be poor, the enthusiasm of downstream terminal market inquiry slows down, the delivery of goods is not smooth, there are many phenomena of low inventory and low output, the focus of pressure is weak, and it is difficult to increase the trading volume. It is estimated that the negotiation range of phenol Market in East China is 7650-7750 yuan / ton.

As of October 16, the offer of phenol in various markets in China is as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation
East China 7750     -150
8000-100 in Shandong
Yanshan surrounding area 7800-     150
South China 8150

-50

 
Trade name: acetone

Market price (October 16, East China): 4500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic acetone market continues to operate in a weak position. Although the trading atmosphere in the market has improved slightly, the overall transaction follow-up is general, and the cargo holders are actively shipping, while the terminal factories just need to purchase, and the transaction of small orders is carried out. It is estimated that the negotiation range in East China market today is 4500-4550 yuan / ton; the negotiation range in surrounding markets of Yanshan is 4800-4850 yuan / ton; the main negotiation range in South China market is 4600 yuan / ton.

As of October 16, the quotation of acetone in all markets in China was as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation
East China 4500   -50
Shandong 4750    -50
Yanshan surrounding area 4800   -50
South China 4600    -50

Price trend:

The domestic market of dimethyl ether continued to rise, with a large range. On September 4, the average price of the domestic market of dimethyl ether was 2880 yuan / ton, and on October 15, the average price was 3550 yuan / ton, with an increase of 23.26% in 40 days. The price was 25.09% lower than that of the same period last year.

With the end of the off-season demand in August, after entering the “golden nine”, the DME market opened an upward channel, and the price rose to a relatively high level. Affected by the gas market, the market demand has improved, but the trend of liquefied gas has not reached the expectation, so the dimethyl ether Market in the early September is not obvious. After the incident in Saudi Arabia on September 14, the crude oil market soared, and the dimethyl ether market rose one after another. Subsequently, under the influence of the national day, the demand for replenishment before the festival increased, and the market atmosphere was good. In addition, some manufacturers stop before the festival, the supply in the area is reduced, the relationship between market supply and demand is broken, the shipment of manufacturers continues to be smooth, the inventory of many factories is cleared, and the price continues to push up. After the festival, the cost of methanol increased significantly, and there was still a demand for replenishment in the downstream. Dimethyl ether continued to increase. Henan xinlianxin increased 300 yuan / ton for six consecutive days, and the manufacturer reported that the delivery was good. Until October 15, the DME market recovered after rising. In the early stage, some manufacturers started to operate their devices, the market supply increased, the downstream receiving strength weakened, and the market returned to rationality.

Industrial chain:
It can be seen from the figure that the price change trend and range of dimethyl ether and methanol are basically the same, and the overall price of methanol market continues to rise, with a large increase and more frequency. Under the support of cost, the market of DME should rise. At present, the methanol inventory in the northwest main production area is low, and the manufacturer has no delivery pressure for the time being, and the price continues to be strong. After the festival, the downstream market gradually recovered, some downstream enterprises actively replenished, the methanol market in the mainland shipped smoothly, and the northwest main production area was strong, the on-site operators had a positive attitude, and the market trend around Bohai Sea and Huaihai continued to rise. On the port side, the trend of the port is strong and the on-site gas buying is good, and the expectation of the operator for the later period is fair. In terms of units, a 600000 T / a methanol unit in Gansu was restarted, a 600000 T / a unit in Shaanxi was restarted, and several early-stage shutdown units in Shanxi were restarted.

It can be seen from the figure that the trend of DME and LPG is rising as a whole, but the rise of LPG is less than that of DME. At present, the price difference between gas and ether in Henan Province is 200-300 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 440-600 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong Province is 400-500 yuan / ton. In September, the peak season of the gas market is coming. It is reasonable to say that the liquefied gas market should usher in a new wave of upward trend. However, due to the slow improvement of terminal demand and limited consumption capacity, it is difficult for the market to get a substantial improvement. In the early stage, narrow adjustment has been the main trend. Until the international oil price soared and the international spot market rose, the domestic liquefied gas market, which has been continuously tepid and tepid, ushered in a wave of push ups. However, with the fall of international crude oil, the liquefied gas market gradually returned to the normal price level. After the introduction of CP in October, the price hike was implemented. The industry has sufficient confidence in the future market and is more active in replenishment. After the festival, the overall performance of the market was good. Sinopec units raised prices substantially, driving local enterprises to actively follow the rise. The overall delivery situation of the national market was good. However, the inventory pressure in Shandong is obvious, taking the lead in delivering profits, and other regions have no intention of falling under the support of main high prices.

Future forecast:

According to the DME analyst of business association, the domestic price of DME has risen to a relatively high level, the downstream receiving capacity is relatively limited, the cost of methanol has dropped after surging high, and the trend of gas market is weak. On the 16th, Henan xinlianxin implemented the 2-day minimum guarantee policy. Supply side: the operating rate is at a low level, with limited support for prices. Demand side: short-term on-demand procurement based, general enthusiasm into the market. Market mentality: the lower reaches of the high price conflict, mainly wait-and-see. Although there are many negative factors at present, the weather will gradually cool down in the later period, and the market demand will increase. It is understood that the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is not big at present, and it is still in a controllable state. The dimethyl ether Market is expected to decline in the short term, but not by a large margin. In the long run, the market may show a trend of falling first and then rising.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin increased in the third quarter of 2019. On July 1, the average ex factory price of grade-I product of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5000 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the average ex factory price of grade-I product of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5200 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.00%.

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5300 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5000 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton. 。 The quotation for the first grade chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is about 5000-5500 yuan/ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: WTI’s November 2019 futures fell $1.11 per barrel on Monday (October 14) at $53.59; Brent’s December 2019 futures fell $1.16 per barrel at $59.35. China’s SC crude oil futures main contract 1912 rose 13 yuan to 464.8 yuan / barrel.

Industrial chain: the crude oil market rose and fell in the third quarter, fluctuating within the range. The mainstream price of liquid wax maintains stable operation, the manufacturer’s shipment is stable, and the inventory is low. The price of liquid chlorine remained stable. Some areas rose slightly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in September 2019, there were 46 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices, including 30 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 35.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were nitric acid (54.17%), butanone (37.13%) and hydrochloric acid (35.14%). There are 32 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are chloroform (- 20.83%), sulfur (- 16.35%) and R22 (- 14.00%). This month, the average rise and fall was 4.09%.

III. future forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that the market of chlorinated paraffin rose in the third quarter. Up to now, the overall market turnover in October is weak, the downstream is cautious and the market holds a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will remain stable in the later period. It is recommended to pay attention to real-time market trends.