Multiple benefits DME market soared

Price trend:

The domestic market of dimethyl ether continued to rise, with a large range. On September 4, the average price of the domestic market of dimethyl ether was 2880 yuan / ton, and on October 15, the average price was 3550 yuan / ton, with an increase of 23.26% in 40 days. The price was 25.09% lower than that of the same period last year.

With the end of the off-season demand in August, after entering the “golden nine”, the DME market opened an upward channel, and the price rose to a relatively high level. Affected by the gas market, the market demand has improved, but the trend of liquefied gas has not reached the expectation, so the dimethyl ether Market in the early September is not obvious. After the incident in Saudi Arabia on September 14, the crude oil market soared, and the dimethyl ether market rose one after another. Subsequently, under the influence of the national day, the demand for replenishment before the festival increased, and the market atmosphere was good. In addition, some manufacturers stop before the festival, the supply in the area is reduced, the relationship between market supply and demand is broken, the shipment of manufacturers continues to be smooth, the inventory of many factories is cleared, and the price continues to push up. After the festival, the cost of methanol increased significantly, and there was still a demand for replenishment in the downstream. Dimethyl ether continued to increase. Henan xinlianxin increased 300 yuan / ton for six consecutive days, and the manufacturer reported that the delivery was good. Until October 15, the DME market recovered after rising. In the early stage, some manufacturers started to operate their devices, the market supply increased, the downstream receiving strength weakened, and the market returned to rationality.

Industrial chain:
It can be seen from the figure that the price change trend and range of dimethyl ether and methanol are basically the same, and the overall price of methanol market continues to rise, with a large increase and more frequency. Under the support of cost, the market of DME should rise. At present, the methanol inventory in the northwest main production area is low, and the manufacturer has no delivery pressure for the time being, and the price continues to be strong. After the festival, the downstream market gradually recovered, some downstream enterprises actively replenished, the methanol market in the mainland shipped smoothly, and the northwest main production area was strong, the on-site operators had a positive attitude, and the market trend around Bohai Sea and Huaihai continued to rise. On the port side, the trend of the port is strong and the on-site gas buying is good, and the expectation of the operator for the later period is fair. In terms of units, a 600000 T / a methanol unit in Gansu was restarted, a 600000 T / a unit in Shaanxi was restarted, and several early-stage shutdown units in Shanxi were restarted.

It can be seen from the figure that the trend of DME and LPG is rising as a whole, but the rise of LPG is less than that of DME. At present, the price difference between gas and ether in Henan Province is 200-300 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 440-600 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong Province is 400-500 yuan / ton. In September, the peak season of the gas market is coming. It is reasonable to say that the liquefied gas market should usher in a new wave of upward trend. However, due to the slow improvement of terminal demand and limited consumption capacity, it is difficult for the market to get a substantial improvement. In the early stage, narrow adjustment has been the main trend. Until the international oil price soared and the international spot market rose, the domestic liquefied gas market, which has been continuously tepid and tepid, ushered in a wave of push ups. However, with the fall of international crude oil, the liquefied gas market gradually returned to the normal price level. After the introduction of CP in October, the price hike was implemented. The industry has sufficient confidence in the future market and is more active in replenishment. After the festival, the overall performance of the market was good. Sinopec units raised prices substantially, driving local enterprises to actively follow the rise. The overall delivery situation of the national market was good. However, the inventory pressure in Shandong is obvious, taking the lead in delivering profits, and other regions have no intention of falling under the support of main high prices.

Future forecast:

According to the DME analyst of business association, the domestic price of DME has risen to a relatively high level, the downstream receiving capacity is relatively limited, the cost of methanol has dropped after surging high, and the trend of gas market is weak. On the 16th, Henan xinlianxin implemented the 2-day minimum guarantee policy. Supply side: the operating rate is at a low level, with limited support for prices. Demand side: short-term on-demand procurement based, general enthusiasm into the market. Market mentality: the lower reaches of the high price conflict, mainly wait-and-see. Although there are many negative factors at present, the weather will gradually cool down in the later period, and the market demand will increase. It is understood that the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is not big at present, and it is still in a controllable state. The dimethyl ether Market is expected to decline in the short term, but not by a large margin. In the long run, the market may show a trend of falling first and then rising.