The current acrylic acid market is facing a dilemma of ups and downs. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was 5866.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% compared to the beginning of this month.
Cost side:
The price of the main raw material propylene remained relatively firm against the backdrop of winter demand and fluctuations in international oil prices. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of propylene was 5871.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.68% compared to the beginning of this month. This also determines the bottom line of cost for acrylic acid. The profit margin of manufacturers has been compressed, and their willingness to proactively lower prices is not strong.
Supply side:
Although 2025-2026 is the period for the introduction of new acrylic acid production capacity in China, since the beginning of the year, some major factories have carried out unplanned or extended shutdowns and maintenance, offsetting some of the supply increase brought by the new production capacity. The overall operating rate of the industry remains in the range of 75% -80%, and inventory levels are in the middle range, without forming significant pressure.
Demand side:
January and February are the traditional off-season for downstream production of coatings, adhesives, etc., with rigid procurement being the main focus. The slow recovery of the terminal consumer market has led downstream enterprises to adopt a strategy of “purchasing on demand and maintaining low inventory” for raw materials, and large-scale hoarding behavior is rare. This has suppressed the upward momentum of prices, but also means that the market has not accumulated huge speculative inventory risks. The overseas market demand maintains a certain resilience, providing a diversion channel for domestic supply and avoiding the comprehensive impact of overcapacity.
How long can the ‘stable’ state last?
The current weak balance is fragile and is expected to be broken by the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter of 2026. Specifically, let’s take a look at the following key variables:
1. The intensity and pace of demand recovery
After March, downstream industries will enter the traditional peak season stocking period. If the effects of real estate policies become apparent and the consumer goods market rebounds, driving demand for butyl acrylate (coatings), superabsorbent polymers (SAP, used for hygiene products) and other products to rebound beyond expectations, the market will quickly clear inventory and prices are expected to break through. On the contrary, if the demand during peak season is “not in good condition”, the market will lose support due to disappointment.
2. Supply side variables
After the end of the first quarter, the pre maintenance equipment will gradually resume production, and the release of new production capacity will be more fully realized. The supply pressure will significantly increase in the second quarter. If the long-term price stalemate leads to a continuous deterioration of industry profits, some high cost devices may be forced to reduce load or shut down, thereby regulating supply again.
3. Macro and Cost Environment
The trend of international energy prices will directly reshape the cost line. If there is a trend of rising or falling crude oil prices, it will disrupt the current cost balance. The actual implementation effect of domestic policies to stabilize growth and promote consumption will determine the fundamental direction of terminal demand.
Conclusion: The current “stable” state of the acrylic acid market is a dynamic and fragile balance, and is expected to be difficult to sustain beyond the first quarter of 2026. The second quarter will be a critical period for direction selection, and its trend is highly dependent on the actual demand performance of the “traditional peak season” and the game of supply increment.
For market participants, it is not advisable to have excessive expectations for unilateral market trends at present. Flexible operations and strict inventory control are still the best strategies, and preparations should be made for possible trend trends in the second quarter.

1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices first rose and then fell this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 142816.67 yuan/ton, up 2.56% from the beginning of the week and up 12.56% year-on-year.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 5 times and risen 7 times. Recently, nickel prices have risen rapidly and then fallen back.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically speaking, at the beginning of 2026, Trump first launched a crackdown on Venezuela and seized resources, and then exerted pressure on Greenland, intensifying risk aversion. The US dollar seized the opportunity to rebound, oil prices fell, stock markets fluctuated, precious metals such as gold and silver retreated, and nickel prices fell under pressure.
News: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) claims that the government plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production quotas by about 34% by 2026. The world’s leading nickel producing country plans to make significant adjustments to its nickel mining quota for the new year, coupled with major producers suspending some mining operations due to unforeseen circumstances, which has raised concerns in the market about future supply tightening. Analysis indicates that if relevant policies are implemented, there may be a substantial gap in global nickel ore supply, which will have a direct impact on the country’s energy system, which accounts for the majority of the global supply share.
On the supply side, it is expected that refined nickel production will decrease month on month, and the short-term surplus pattern will narrow under the reduction in production. However, the overall spot supply in the market is still relatively sufficient. In November, China’s refined nickel production was 25800 tons, a decrease of 28.1% compared to the previous month.
In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand for electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Enterprises are buying at low prices, and the “Two Sessions” emphasize the long-term benefits of defense spending. The demand for stainless steel is generally low, and the depletion of social inventory is slow. There may be an increase in supply pressure due to the improvement of steel mill profits. Spot transactions are still cautious, and nickel iron prices have slightly increased recently. In terms of nickel sulfate, downstream ternary production decreased slightly after the end of the peak season reserve period, and there were constraints on the production of new capacity in the medium term. Recently, prices have fallen.
In summary, recent market trading has mainly focused on the pace of RKAB quotas in the Indonesian mining sector, and the actual implementation situation in the future remains to be observed. With high valuations and loose expectations, sentiment has sharply declined, and it is expected that nickel prices will experience a wide range of fluctuations and adjustments in the short term.

The phthalic anhydride market is expected to fluctuate and decline in 2025
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 5966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 9.60% compared to the price of 6600 yuan/ton on January 1. In 2025, the phthalic anhydride market showed a fluctuating downward trend and a low-level rebound at the end of the year. The average price of phthalic anhydride in East China was 6653.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.60% from 2024 and a new low in nearly three years. The triple pressure of falling raw material prices, oversupply, and weak downstream demand has led to a deep adjustment in the phthalic anhydride industry.
Cost reduction of phthalic anhydride
On December 31st, Sinopec quoted 5800 yuan/ton for ortho benzene, a significant drop of 13.43% compared to the price of 6700 yuan/ton on January 1st. The average price of ortho benzene for the whole year of 2025 will decrease by about 12% compared to 2024, with a slight rebound in ortho benzene prices at the end of the year and a decrease in the cost of phthalic anhydride. The cost support for phthalic anhydride has weakened, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride will increase in 2025.
Phthalic anhydride production capacity expansion, oversupply
The total production capacity of phthalic anhydride in China is about 2.4 million tons (including 1.63 million tons from the neighboring method and 770000 tons from the naphthalene method), with an additional production capacity of about 50000 tons by 2025. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate within the range of 50% -75% in 2025, while the operating rate of neighboring methods will remain at 60% -75%. The operating rate of naphthalene method will only be 50% -60% due to cost pressure. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride is relatively high, and there is an overall oversupply of phthalic anhydride.
Demand side: DOP prices will fluctuate and fall in 2025
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of DOP was 7325.84 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 10.95% from 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. In 2025, DOP prices will first stabilize and then decline, with a slight rebound and increase at the end of the year. The price center of gravity for the whole year will significantly decrease compared to 2024. Downstream demand is weak, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices is increasing. More than 60% of the demand for phthalic anhydride relies on the plasticizer industry such as DOP. By 2025, the operating rate of DOP enterprises will only be 50% -65%. The market for plasticizer DOP is declining, and caution should be exercised in the procurement of phthalic anhydride, with a focus on essential needs and low inventory levels. There is significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.
Future forecast
The data analyst for phthalic anhydride products at Shengyi Society believes that by 2025, the cost of excess phthalic anhydride supply will decrease, and the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and fall. Overall, in terms of cost, there will be no new domestic production capacity for phthalic anhydride in 2026, and some enterprises will switch to PX production. In addition, with the expectation of maintenance in the Asian market in the second quarter, the price of phthalic anhydride may fluctuate and rise in 2026, which will increase the cost support for phthalic anhydride; In terms of supply, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride will be relatively high in 2025, and may decrease in 2026, with no new production capacity for phthalic anhydride. The expected supply of phthalic anhydride in 2026 is expected to decrease; In terms of demand, with the relaxation of real estate policies and the expected rebound in demand for plasticizers, support for phthalic anhydride demand still exists. In the future, with cost support and weak supply and strong demand, the price of phthalic anhydride is expected to fluctuate and rise in 2026, or stabilize weakly after reaching a high level in the second quarter.

After New Year’s Day, the price of propylene did show a trend of stabilizing and slightly rising, with a short-term upward momentum, but the overall expected increase is limited. As of January 7th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 5797.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.40% compared to the beginning of this month (5717.67 yuan/ton).
Supply side:
Due to cost pressures, some PDH units are scheduled for maintenance, which may reduce supply. Enterprises in Shandong have low inventory and smooth shipments.
Demand side:
There is an increase in downstream production capacity in the northern market. Entering February, pre holiday stocking may lead to a temporary increase in demand. The overall market supply exceeds demand, and the propylene industry is in an expansion cycle. The loose fundamental pattern is difficult to fundamentally reverse in the short term.
The downstream demand support is limited, and the main downstream polypropylene has high cost pressure. Some units have been shut down. As of January 7th, the benchmark price of PP (drawing) in Shengyi Society was 6253.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.35% compared to the beginning of this month (6170.0 yuan/ton). There is some support for the demand for propylene. The sustainability of the upward trend after New Year’s Day needs to be observed, and the key depends on the downstream’s ability to accept it.
Epoxy propane (PO): The profit situation is relatively good (theoretical gross profit exceeded 1500 yuan/ton on January 2), with a high level of production and stable demand. As of January 7th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 7816.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08% compared to the beginning of this month (7733.33 yuan/ton).
Cost side:
The core contradiction on the current cost side is the conflict between the “low prices” of raw materials such as oil and propane and the “deep losses” of PDH processes. This has led to both downward pressure on cost support and upward momentum due to supply contraction.
Price Outlook
Market average price forecast for January: about 5800 yuan/ton, key resistance level for subsequent increase: 5850 yuan/ton (key observation point for this round of rise). Overall judgment for the first quarter: there is a high probability of a slight rebound in the price center, and it is expected that there will be no strong unilateral rise.
Overall, the current market presents a situation of both short-term rebound and long-term pressure:
Short term opportunities: Tightening supply (low inventory, maintenance expectations) and seasonal demand (pre holiday stocking) are the main drivers of growth. Pay attention to whether the price can effectively break through the 5850 yuan/ton threshold.
Long term pressure: The industrial pattern of oversupply is the fundamental constraint. Although 1.9 million tons of new production capacity are planned to be put into operation in the first quarter, it mainly affects East and South China, with limited direct impact on the main market in Shandong.
Key variables: It is necessary to closely monitor the transmission of international oil price trends to costs, as well as the profits and operating conditions of downstream industries such as polypropylene, which determine the sustainability of the upward trend.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the nickel market will bottom out at a low level throughout 2025. As the end of the year approaches, the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has announced that the government plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production quotas by about 34% in 2026. This news has caused nickel prices to soar to 137733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.77% for the whole year. The lowest price for the whole year was 115050 yuan/ton on December 16th, and the highest price was 137733.33 yuan/ton at the end of the year.
Market Review
In the first half of the year, nickel prices fluctuated significantly around industrial policies and macro factors in Indonesia and the Philippines, with a price focus of around 125000 yuan. In the first quarter, nickel prices rose to a high point of the year due to the combined effects of the reduction of quotas approved by Indonesia’s RKAB and the Philippines’ proposed ban on nickel ore exports, as well as seasonal tightening of fundamentals. But with the easing of disturbances on the resource side and the introduction of the US equivalent tariff policy in April, nickel prices quickly fell from their high levels.
During the four months from June to October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate narrowly around 120000 yuan. On the one hand, the easing of tariff concerns, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and strong demand for new energy vehicles provide support for nickel prices. On the other hand, high inventory and oversupply pressures continue to suppress the upward space. Until November, the expected tightening of the Indonesian mining sector within the year fell through, and downstream entered the off-season, with weak demand and further fermentation of surplus contradictions driving down nickel prices.
The “V-shaped” trend in nickel prices in December, coupled with concerns about high nickel inventory and weak demand in the first half of the month, led to a continuous decline in nickel prices. The real turning point began on December 17th, when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as scheduled and China’s economic data rebounded, providing a systematic upward financial environment for commodities; On the other hand, the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) claims that the government plans to significantly reduce nickel ore production quotas by about 34% by 2026, providing a dual driving force for an epic rise in nickel prices, from a drop to a strong rise in an instant.
Nickel supply
Loose supply of nickel ore
This year, the actual supply of nickel ore is relatively loose. On the one hand, although the final data of RKAB approval in Indonesia has not been released this year, it is at least 298.5 million wet tons, higher than last year’s annual production of about 271.89 million wet tons. On the other hand, Indonesia has significantly increased its imports of Philippine nickel ore this year, filling the domestic supply-demand gap. As of October 2025, Indonesia’s imports of Philippine ore increased by 36.4% year-on-year, with an increase of 3.59 million tons.
Global nickel production
According to the latest data report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in October 2025, the global refined nickel production was 326400 tons, with a consumption of 297200 tons and an oversupply of 29100 tons. From January to October 2025, the global refined nickel production was 3.2046 million tons, with a consumption of 2.8666 million tons and an oversupply of 338000 tons. In October 2025, the global nickel ore production was 342600 tons, and from January to October 2025, the global nickel ore production was 3.5574 million tons.
China’s nickel production

According to statistics, from January to October, China’s primary nickel production was 835000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, the production of electric nickel was 326000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%; The production of nickel containing pig iron was 229000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%
Nickel import and export volume
According to Chinese customs data, the import volume of refined nickel in China in November 2025 was 12670.512 tons, an increase of 2929 tons or 30.07% compared to the previous month; An increase of 3676 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 40.86%. This month, the net import of refined nickel was 1744.426 tons, a decrease of 259.79% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 160.39% year-on-year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel in China was 207794.526 tons, an increase of 128815 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 163.10%. The import dependence of China’s nickel resources, especially nickel iron and refined nickel, is extremely high. The main sources of refined nickel have shifted from Russia to Norway and South Africa, while nickel iron supply is almost entirely dependent on Indonesia.
Nickel demand
Proportion of downstream nickel
In terms of global demand for primary nickel, stainless steel is the main demand, while batteries provide the main increment. Stainless steel, batteries, alloys, electroplating, and others account for 65%, 15%, 13%, and 7% respectively. From the perspective of pure nickel, alloys and castings are the main application areas, accounting for nearly 50%. The demand for nickel beans is replaced by nickel intermediate products (MHP/high ice nickel), resulting in only 1% of pure nickel consumption at the battery (nickel sulfate) end.
Nickel apparent consumption
According to customs data statistics, the apparent consumption of nickel has been on the rise since 2022, reaching the level of 2021.
Under the drag of real estate, stainless steel is unlikely to perform beyond expectations
Over the past 25 years, China’s stainless steel production has maintained steady growth. From January to November, the production of 300 series stainless steel increased by 7.4% year-on-year (previously 8.5%). However, as a post cyclical commodity in the real estate market, downstream demand has been relatively weak due to the drag of the real estate market, and the overall inventory of stainless steel is high and difficult to clear. At the same time, the profit of stainless steel production from primary nickel is sluggish, and it is expected that the stainless steel sector will not perform beyond expectations in the 26th year.
The proportion of ternary battery vehicles is relatively small
In 2025, the demand for new energy will be strong, and the production of ternary precursors will return to the high level of 2022. As of November, the production of ternary precursors has increased by 11.41% year-on-year compared to the previous year. However, in the past 25 years, the proportion of ternary batteries installed in new energy vehicles has remained below 20%, and the installation structure has seriously constrained the demand increment of the new energy sector. According to TrendForce, all solid state batteries are currently in the stage of transitioning from prototype cells to engineering applications. It is expected to begin demonstration applications at the thousand vehicle level in the electric vehicle field in 2027-2028 and begin large-scale applications after 2030. The demand growth for new energy in 2026 may be relatively limited.
Electroplating, alloys, and special steel have limited impact due to their small volume

Electroplating, alloys, and special steel are the main components downstream of refined nickel. The demand for nickel in electroplating remains stable, with an annual nickel consumption of around 43000 tons; The nickel consumption of alloys and special steel has steadily increased since 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 14% in the past five years. However, the proportion of this demand in the total demand for nickel is relatively low, and the overall impact is relatively small.
Policy aspect
Indonesia’s policy shift towards quota tightening and cost restructuring drives nickel price center upward
At the end of the year, Indonesia gave two key policy signals: one is a significant reduction in mining quotas: the target for nickel mining quotas (RKAB) in 2026 is set at 250 million tons, a decrease of more than 34% from 379 million tons in 2025; The second adjustment is the pricing method: the plan is to revise the calculation formula for the reference price of nickel ore, treating cobalt and other associated metals as independent commodities and levying franchise fees.
If these two policies are implemented, they will directly push up the cost of nickel mining from two dimensions: the total supply of mineral resources and the taxable cost of mining. It is expected that the cost center of Indonesia’s nickel industry chain will systematically shift upwards in the future and be transmitted to the global market through the trade chain, becoming a key factor supporting nickel prices in the medium to long term.
Summary and Outlook for 2026
In summary, the pattern of nickel surplus is already evident, and the resource side policies of Indonesia and the Philippines are the main variables in nickel fundamentals. Before the final implementation of Indonesian policies, as a “giant” that accounts for over 50% of global nickel supply, Indonesia’s production adjustment is enough to shake the global supply and demand pattern.
If the Indonesian policy is implemented, the cost of mining will systematically rise, coupled with the narrowing space for the downward movement of domestic integrated process costs, and the “bottom range” of nickel prices is expected to solidify. The current price around 130000 yuan/ton is close to the “break even line” of most enterprises. In terms of demand, the demand for new energy batteries (especially high nickel ternary batteries) is expected to rebound in 2026, and the destocking of the stainless steel industry is coming to an end. Downstream replenishment demand may form a “bottom line” for nickel prices.
However, looking back at 2024, Indonesia’s final approved quota was higher than the initial planned target, and there is a possibility that the policy may be more grandiose than practical. If the actual quota does not significantly shrink by 2026, the rebound of nickel prices may be limited.
Overall, if Indonesia’s 2026 quota is reduced as planned and tax adjustments are implemented, the contraction of nickel ore supply will shift from “expectation” to “reality”. Coupled with rising costs, nickel prices are expected to hit the range of 140000-150000 yuan/ton. There is no expected significant improvement in demand. It is expected that the nickel price will move up in 2026. If it is well settled, the price is expected to reach 150000 yuan/ton. If it is not awesome, it may fluctuate around 130000 yuan/ton.