price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in China experienced a stagflation and correction in October. The spot prices of some brands have fallen. As of October 16th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14483.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.12% compared to early October.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In the first half of October, domestic PC aggregation enterprises had a large and stable load with small fluctuations. As of the time of writing, the industry’s operating rate is about 81%, with an average weekly output of around 68000 tons, with limited changes compared to the beginning of the month. However, many companies in the future will have centralized release of maintenance arrangements. In terms of inventory, there is a high-level stalemate, and the pattern of abundant PC supply remains unchanged. The positive news of early maintenance has basically been exhausted, and the market is waiting for the implementation of maintenance arrangements for many aggregation plants. Overall, the weak reality and strong expectations on the PC supply side provide moderate support for PC.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the bisphenol A market significantly declined in the first half of October. Upstream phenol and acetone both suffered heavy setbacks, which has a significant impact on the bisphenol A market. In addition, the continuous weakness of bisphenol A consumption has led to a rapid decline in spot prices due to multiple factors. The current market atmosphere remains bleak, with many businesses offering discounts and taking orders, making it difficult for the market to have a chance to stop falling. It is expected that bisphenol A will continue to seek a balance point downwards in the future, while its support effect on the cost of PC will weaken.
On the demand side: October is still in the traditional peak season for PC, but the downstream factory load of the “Golden Ten” this year is not ideal, and the inventory remains at a weak level of rigid demand. Pre holiday warehouse building is not obvious, and post holiday inventory digestion is slow. Although there were maintenance signals that stimulated the early rise of spot prices, as the positive news gradually dissipated, market trading activity declined. Merchants tend to focus on selling goods to recoup funds, leading to a concentration of profit taking and price stagnation and decline. In addition, the industry’s market momentum has been weak for a long time, social inventory is high, and on-site sources of goods are abundant. Although there are collective price increases from aggregation factories, terminal enterprises are resistant to high priced sources of goods. After the demand for filling vacancies in the first half of the month was met, the speed of market supply circulation slowed down again. Overall, the demand side provides average support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In October, the domestic PC market in China experienced stagflation and fell back. The upstream bisphenol A market is still in a downward trend, and the cost value of PC support has collapsed. Domestic PC aggregation plants have large and stable loads with small fluctuations, and maintenance in the future is relatively concentrated. The spot price of PC has risen to a high level in the early stage, and the current market trading situation is not good. It is expected that the PC market will be hindered from rising in the short term and enter a consolidation market.

Recently (10.1-10.14), the domestic EVA market has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 14th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from 11403 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, downstream demand for EVA weakened after the holiday; On the other hand, the increase in domestic EVA plant production has led to increased supply pressure. Although the price of raw material vinyl acetate has risen, the overall EVA market has weakened due to the comprehensive impact.
Recently (10.1-10.14), EVA production has risen to around 9.3%, leading to increased supply pressure in the EVA market. During the cycle, the price of raw material ethylene decreased while the price of vinyl acetate increased, and the cost continued to be supported by EVA. As of October 14th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 6300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.35% from 6950 yuan/ton at the end of September; As of October 14th, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 5850 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.41% from 5550 at the end of September.
After the holiday, the demand for EVA was weak, and spot purchases in the photovoltaic sector slowed down. The peak season for downstream orders for foam production was not strong, and some manufacturers lowered their ex factory prices. The EVA market situation was weak and slightly declined.
Future forecast: Overall, EVA still has cost support, but there will be less maintenance of EVA equipment in China after the holiday, with sufficient supply. Downstream demand in the photovoltaic and foam industries will weaken, and it is expected that the EVA spot market will continue to decline slightly in the later period.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and slightly declining recently (10.1-10.14). As of October 14th, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 14391 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.87% from 14666 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the high prices of natural rubber raw materials have fallen, which has weakened the support for the natural rubber market; On the other hand, during the downstream tire festival period, the overall operating capacity was low, which had a negative impact on natural rubber. Despite the continued slight destocking of natural rubber inventory at the port, the natural rubber market has experienced a slight decline due to cost and demand factors. As of October 14th, the mainstream price for 24 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14200-14550 yuan/ton.
As of October 14th, the price of Thai glue was 54.10 baht/kg, a decrease of 1.28% from 54.80 baht/kg on September 30th. Although typhoons continue to affect major Southeast Asian production areas such as Hainan and Yunnan, as well as Thailand and Vietnam in recent times, some rubber cutting operations have been hindered. However, the market expects a concentrated release of supply after the weather improves in the fourth quarter, and overall raw material prices continue to decline from high levels.
Recently (10.1-10.14), natural rubber inventory has continued to decrease slightly, which has a greater impact on natural rubber. As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 456000 tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons or 0.11% compared to the previous period.
Recently (10.1-10.14), due to the National Day holiday, the average production of downstream tires has significantly decreased, which has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of October 9th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 4.20%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly decreased to around 4.20%.
Market forecast: The current high prices of natural rubber raw materials have fallen back, and downstream production is low. However, the overall inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to decline slightly, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience weak fluctuations before the holiday.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market has fluctuated downward this cycle. From October 1st to October 13th, 2025, the price of butadiene was reduced from 8886.67 yuan/ton to 8380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.7%. The overall performance of the domestic butadiene market in this cycle is weak, with a wide range of ex factory prices for major refineries in China. The overall performance of downstream demand is poor, and the trend of the synthetic rubber market is weak. The enthusiasm for entering the market is low, and the purchasing intention is weak. The actual transaction performance in the market is poor, and there is a lack of demand support, resulting in a weak overall performance of the butadiene market. As of October 13th, the delivery price to the Shandong market is between 8500-8600 yuan/ton.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 10th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $58.90 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the December contract is $62.73 per barrel. During this cycle, the crude oil price market first rose and then fell. On the one hand, geopolitical factors remain one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. Russia and Ukraine have tense geopolitical factors, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have stimulated the crude oil market to rise; On the other hand, OPEC+has launched a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day, and the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The easing of the Palestinian Israeli situation, coupled with weakened US demand, has dragged down global economic and demand expectations due to US tariff issues, leading to a rapid decline in international oil prices.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 8800 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market situation of Shunding rubber in East China is weak and declining. Currently, downstream terminals are inquiring on demand, and the ex factory price of Shunding rubber has been reduced by 300 yuan/ton after the holiday. Market transactions are light, and merchant offers are weak and declining. As of October 13th, the mainstream prices for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are around 11300 to 11500 yuan/ton, while some private brands are priced around 11000 to 11350 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: There has been no significant increase in downstream demand in the near future, and overall market expectations remain weak. With the intention of purchasing for essential needs, the spot market is generally weak, and there is a lack of positive factors to boost the market. Under the influence of weak demand, it is expected that the butadiene market will be weak and volatile in the short term, with a focus on downstream procurement demand.

In early October, the overall performance of the polyester bottle chip market was weak, with prices fluctuating downwards. According to the price data from Shengyi Society, on October 10th, the market price in East China closed at 5812 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 40 yuan/ton from before the holiday. Faced with a weak market, most polyester bottle chip companies choose to lower their prices, ranging from 20-50 yuan/ton, resulting in a shift in the actual transaction center of the market.
Significant collapse of cost support
The ceasefire agreement reached between Palestine and Israel has eased the instability of the geopolitical situation, leading to a decline in international oil prices. This is the root cause of weakening the cost of the chemical industry chain upstream. The PTA and ethylene glycol markets, which are direct raw materials for polyester bottle chips, have also shown weak performance. On October 10th, the spot negotiation price of PTA in East China fell to 4485 yuan/ton. The collective weakening of upstream raw materials has resulted in the loss of important cost support for polyester bottle chips.
Adequate supply but weak demand
Despite the downward trend in prices, the market supply is relatively sufficient. The overall operating rate of the industry remains at a level of 73.37% to 78.62%, which means that the factory’s output has not significantly decreased and the market’s spot supply is relatively sufficient. Insufficient demand follow-up: Downstream end users, such as those in the soft drink packaging industry, generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, with procurement strategies mainly focused on cautious follow-up according to demand, lacking enthusiasm for large-scale stocking. The sluggish peak season of “golden September and silver October” has led to an imbalance between supply and demand, suppressing prices.
Overall, Shengyi Society believes that there is currently no significant positive trend in supply and demand, and the price of PET spot market may adjust narrowly with the cost side in the short term. The expected price may fluctuate within the range of 5680-5850 yuan/ton.