1、 Price trend
According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic toluene market fluctuated narrowly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3410 yuan / ton, down 2.57% on last week.
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2、 Analysis and comment
1. Product: as Europe and the United States gradually liberalize the restrictions on the epidemic blockade, global demand is expected to improve, but the overall demand is still insufficient. Affected by this, the price of toluene in China is adjusted by shocks this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3430 yuan / ton.
2. Industrial chain:
Upstream, in terms of crude oil, supported by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait taking the lead in reducing production, the three major crude oil market reports show that the current oversupply situation has eased. At the same time, with the gradual release of restrictions on the epidemic blockade in Europe and the United States, global crude oil demand is expected to improve. Affected by this, this week’s oil price rebound. However, the market is still worried about the risk of a second outbreak, and the weak economic outlook of the United States still limits the rise of oil prices. Generally speaking, early signs of gradual recovery of oil market balance can be seen, but uncertainty in the oil industry still exists. As of early Friday morning, Brent futures rose 29.62%, Brent futures 17.68%, WTI futures 17.41% and Dubai futures 25.12%.
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In the downstream, the TDI market is slightly stronger, and the quotation keeps rising. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 10500-10600 yuan / ton, the quotation of Shanghai goods with bills is 10800-11000 yuan / ton, and the listing price of Wanhua chemical in May is 12000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable and small rebound trend, and pay close attention to the later information guidance of the factory and the actual market delivery Investment situation. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4000 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 467 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 485 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain a stable trend in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Toluene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: in the short term, we can see the supply cost end, OPEC + production reduction, crude oil futures delivery trend in June, and the situation in the US and Iraq. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the approaching June crude oil futures delivery trend. In a word, it is expected that the toluene price in the domestic market next week will depend on the crude oil trend, with great uncertainty.
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