1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the average price of domestic mainstream PVC in September 16 was 6587.5 yuan / ton, up 0.11% compared with the previous day, 0.34% higher than that at the beginning of the month, 2.37% on a month on month basis, and 1.46% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
On Wednesday, the market stopped falling and rose slightly, and the PVC market price rose again. Now it has entered the traditional peak season of gold, silver and ten, but the demand has not met the expectation. Last week, the PVC market showed a trend of first rising and then falling, and the weak market continued to the beginning of this week. On the 16th, the spot market of PVC was steadily rising. Taking Tangshan Sanyou as an example, it increased slightly by 50 yuan. Recently, due to the continuous decline of the futures market, the supply of imported goods to supplement the market, the accumulation of social stocks, and the demand failed to meet expectations, the rise of PVC in peak season was hindered, and the manufacturer’s quotation was slightly loose, but the overall situation remained stable and wait-and-see. In September, some enterprises entered the autumn overhaul, and the output decreased. Although the social inventory was accumulated, it was lower than that of last year, and the supply was slightly loose. Downstream enterprises still maintained the rigid demand procurement and replenished on the low price. The operating rate was increased compared with that before. The superimposed foreign demand is gradually recovering, and the demand in peak season is steadily increasing. And raw calcium carbide support is OK, so PVC continued to fall is not easy, short-term callback should not be too pessimistic. On the whole, the current demand is not up to expectations, the market trend is more and more ups and downs, but the contradiction between supply and demand is not big, is gradually improving, PVC market inflection point can still be expected.
In terms of spot goods, domestic pvc5 type tourmaline’s mainstream quotation range is around 6300-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream of pvc5 type calcium carbide in East China is 6550-6600 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 6450-6550 yuan / ton. The price is increased by 6230-6330 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 6550-6650 yuan / ton in Hangzhou, and 6560-6650 yuan / ton in Changzhou, The main price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 6650-6750 yuan / ton, slightly adjusted. The price consolidation in various places is the main factor, with little fluctuation.
In terms of futures, the volatility was strong. The opening price of v2101 contract on Wednesday was 6565, the highest price was 6605, the lowest price was 6540, and the closing price was 6585, up 30%, or 0.46%. The turnover was 126000, with a decrease of 3000. The position was 190000 hands, reduced by 4034 hands.
Regional variety and technology September 16
Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6650-6750 yuan / ton
Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 6450-6550 yuan / ton
Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6550-6650 yuan / ton
Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6560-6650 yuan / ton
Upstream crude oil, on September 15, the US WTI crude oil futures market price rose, and the settlement price of the main contract was $38.28/barrel, up $1.02. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.53/barrel, up $0.92. Oil prices rose more than 2%, mainly due to the impact of the hurricane in the United States leading to partial supply disruption, but demand concerns remained lingering, limiting oil prices.
Ethylene, under the support of cost, the external market of ethylene increased slightly. The price of ethylene market in Asia is rising, while that in Europe and America is on the upward trend. The demand of ethylene market is good and the market continues to rise.
For calcium carbide, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China on September 16 was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on September 14. The price of raw materials is low, and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. Downstream PVC market rose slightly recently, downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and calcium carbide supply is normal. In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2800 yuan / ton.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts believe that the current decline in PVC futures, the supply of imported goods to supplement the market, the accumulation of social stocks, as well as the demand did not meet the expectations of many negative constraints, PVC peak season rise hindered. However, the cost side support is fair. As the enterprises enter the autumn overhaul and the PVC export gradually improves, the PVC market is not easy to fall deeply, and the main melody is the upward shock. The future market still needs to pay attention to the demand follow-up and the market trend.
| Thiourea |