1、 Price trend
According to the business agency data monitoring: in September, domestic LNG rose by 9.28%, and then rose after the festival. On October 9, the average price was 2706.67 yuan / ton, up 2.92% compared with that before the festival, 12.47% higher than that at the beginning of September, 14.85% on a month on month basis, and 7.31% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Since the second half of the month, due to the relatively stable market situation, the shipment situation of some liquid plants has improved, and the demand has gradually increased. Moreover, after the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the inventory pressure is not great, the shipment situation has been improved, and the bad factors in the off-season demand are added Gradually turned light, the market trading improved, the market continued to rise, near the end of the month is climbing. With the decrease of temperature, the demand for urban fuel and vehicle is better, and some manufacturers have no pressure on inventory and have a good confidence in price.
During the holiday, traffic was blocked and LNG shipment was not smooth. After the holiday, the road transportation was restored and the downstream began to actively replenish. The terminal demand increased. In addition, the weather turned cool. The northern cities gradually entered the heating period in winter, which supported the upward trend of LNG price and the active adjustment of liquid price in many places. Moreover, due to the increase of feed gas price, the liquid plant was optimistic and the market gradually changed from The off-season turned into the peak season.
According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 9, the average price in Inner Mongolia is around 2750 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; in Shaanxi, the average price is around 2720 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Shanxi, the average price is around 2770 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Xinjiang, the average price is around 3120 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Ningxia, the average price is around 2740 yuan / ton, the price is rising, and the average price in Sichuan is 2660 yuan In the vicinity of yuan / ton, the price is temporarily stable; the price of liquid in many places is gradually rising.
Enterprise capacity rose and fell from October 9 to September 1
Inner Mongolia Shitai: 550000 cubic meters / day: 2650 yuan / ton: 2350 yuan / ton: 300 yuan
Star Energy: 1 million cubic meters / day 2770 yuan / ton 2450 yuan / ton 320 yuan
Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day 2650 yuan / ton 2380 yuan / ton 270 yuan
Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 2700 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 300 yuan
Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day 2810 yuan / ton 2470 yuan / ton 340 yuan / ton
Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2580 yuan / ton: 2950 yuan / ton – 370
Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2780 yuan / ton 2360 yuan / ton 420 yuan
Qinshui Xinao — 2700 yuan / ton 2600 yuan / ton 100 yuan
Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million cubic meters / day 2500 yuan / ton 1600 yuan / ton 900 yuan
Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day 4000 yuan / ton 3000 yuan / ton 1000 yuan
Downstream products also increased to varying degrees:
Downstream methanol, Shandong methanol market negotiation price of 1680-1690 yuan / ton, delivered to spot exchange, the transaction was general. The quotation of methanol market in southern Shandong is temporarily stable at around 1800 yuan / t spot exchange. Linyi receives the local price of 1790-1800 yuan / ton and delivers it without tax. The logistics goods are offered at 1730-1750 yuan / ton. On the first day after the festival, futures rose, but most of the downstream watched and the market remained stable temporarily.
Liquid ammonia: in recent years, the domestic liquid ammonia market still maintains the range consolidation. It is not ruled out that the trend of various regions or some differentiation after the festival is not ruled out. The market is mainly affected by large plants. In the later stage, there may still be maintenance of units in Shandong. After the festival, the market may need to consume part of the pre holiday stock, and the price may be impacted to a certain extent. In the late autumn, the demand for ammonia in the downstream is expected to be weak and the demand for ammonia may be weak in the late autumn.
Urea and upstream liquid ammonia have been consolidated at a high level recently, with good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some devices were overhauled and some of them were in short supply. 9 daily offer: 1660-1700 yuan / ton
The market price of dichloromethane and methane chloride in Shandong Province is rising. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2650 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform market is about 1850 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is at a high level, and the price of methane chloride is well supported; the overall purchasing demand of downstream market is poor and the support is insufficient.
3、 Future forecast
LNG analysts from the business club believe that: after the holiday, road transportation is restored to be unobstructed, and the downstream starts to actively replenish goods, and the terminal demand has increased. In addition, the weather turns cool, northern cities gradually enter the winter heating period, which supports the upward trend of LNG prices. It is expected that the domestic LNG prices will rise steadily.
| Thiourea |