Trend analysis
According to the data monitoring of business community, the rising trend of cobalt Market at the end of 2019 could not be continued in 2020. Affected by the epidemic situation, the cobalt Market in 2020 was relatively cold, far lower than the market expectation. As of December 30, cobalt price was 272666.66 yuan / ton, up 2.31% from 266500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1). Although the price of cobalt will rise slightly in 2020, compared with the expected price of cobalt, the market of cobalt in 2020 will be rather cold. In the overall cold market of cobalt, several different voices will become the “rising voice” in the trend of cobalt price in 2020.
New energy vehicle market
According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, from January to November 2020, the production of new energy vehicles completed 1.119 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, and the sales completed 1.109 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. In the post subsidy era, the production of new energy vehicles will decrease slightly in 2020, and the sales will increase year on year, providing sufficient support for the demand of cobalt market. The production and sales of new energy vehicles rose sharply, the demand for cobalt market rose significantly, and the positive market of cobalt market increased greatly.
According to the data reported by the media, the cumulative sales volume from January to November in Europe is expected to be 1.1 million, and it is expected to reach 1.25 million this year, with a year-on-year growth of over 120%. The European Union’s 2030 climate target plan raises the 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target from 40% to 60%. Countries have introduced various subsidy policies and the target time of banning fuel vehicles has been advanced. In addition, the quantity and promotion of new models in Europe, a series of measures have led to a sharp rise in the sales of electric vehicles in Europe. The epidemic has limited impact on the European new energy vehicle market. Sales of new energy vehicles in Europe have increased greatly, and the demand for cobalt market has risen sharply, which is favorable for cobalt market.
Domestic mobile phone production and sales data
According to the statistics of China Academy of information technology, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market in November was 29.584 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.1%. In November, the domestic mobile phone sales declined year-on-year, but the decline contracted, and the month on month rise sharply. The demand of cobalt market slowly recovered, which is good for the cobalt market. However, due to the overall decline of mobile phone sales, the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market generally declined, and the rising power of cobalt market is limited.
According to IDC’s 2020 shipment data of global smart phone market, in the first quarter of 2020, the global smart phone shipment decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, 16.0% in the second quarter, still in a declining state in the third quarter, 1.3% year-on-year, and the overall sales volume of global smart phone market is expected to decline by 2.3%. In the third quarter, global smartphone shipments totaled 353.6 million units, down 1.3% year-on-year, but the results were stronger than IDC’s previous forecast of – 9%. The epidemic situation began to improve, and some mobile phone markets around the world have a trend of recovery. The recovery of mobile phone market is obviously good for the demand of cobalt Market in the future, and the rising power of cobalt Market in the future is greater.
According to the data released by IDC, in the third quarter of 2020, the global Tablet PC shipment increased by 24.9% year-on-year to 47.6 million units; in the third quarter of 2020, the global wearable device shipment reached 125 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35%. In 2020, the global smartphone shipment will decline, but the relative Tablet PC and wearable device shipment will increase greatly. Overall, in terms of 3C products and intelligent devices, there is a large space for global demand to rise in the future, the demand for cobalt market is expected to rise, and the demand for cobalt Market in the future is more dynamic.
According to hardware industry executives and analysts, global sales of laptops and desktops in 2020 are at the highest level since the launch of the iPhone in 2007, and PC shipments are expected to reach about 300 million units in 2020, an increase of about 15% over the previous year, Reuters reported. The increase of computer sales has brought a positive effect on the demand of cobalt market. Although this positive supporting time remains to be investigated, the overall demand of cobalt market has a certain support.
Import of cobalt raw materials
The import volume of cobalt raw materials (10000 tons of metal tons) rose or fell by% in the current month, and the cumulative import volume of cobalt raw materials (10000 tons of metal tons) rose or fell by%
January to February 2020: 0.5-34-1.2-24
March 2020 0.89 43 2 31
April 2020: 0.82 70 2.87 42
May 2020 0.37 – 55 3.24 14
June 2020: 0.44-42.68.3
July 2020: 0.84 10 4.52 4
August 2020: 0.93 3 5.45 4
September 2020: 0.67 – 32 6.12 – 2
October 2020: 1.07 15 7.19 0
November 2020 0.9 9 8.09 1
According to the statistics of China Customs, China’s import of cobalt raw materials totaled 80900 tons of metal tons from January to November 2020, an increase of 1% year on year. Although affected by the epidemic, African ports were closed in April, and China’s Cobalt raw material imports decreased significantly, the overall impact of China’s Cobalt raw material imports was small, and the annual import volume increased slightly. The increase of cobalt raw material import is bad for the domestic cobalt market, which has certain downward pressure.
According to South African media reports, South African President ramafosa announced in a televised speech last night that South Africa will re-enter the level 3 blockade from 0:00 on December 29, and will not decide whether to update the epidemic prevention measures until January 15. The port of Mozambique Bela was temporarily closed due to typhoon. South Africa’s re blockade and port stoppage have a certain impact on the import of cobalt raw materials. Domestic cobalt raw material imports may decrease in a short term, and the cobalt market has a greater upward momentum.
Market Overview
Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that the global cobalt market will be mainly cold in 2020 due to the impact of the first epidemic. Although there are various policy supports, the overall demand of cobalt market is still slightly insufficient. But after a bleak, we found that there are still “Rising Voices” in the cobalt market. It is these “Rising Voices” that support the rebound of cobalt price in 2020, and also bring hope for the future rise of cobalt market. In 2020, the sharp drop of mobile phone sales will lead to the decline of cobalt market demand, and the increase of new energy vehicle sales will not meet the expectation, which are the main reasons for the difficult rise of cobalt price in 2020. The rising sales of 3C products such as computers and wearable products have brought new growth points to the demand of cobalt market. The outbreak of new energy vehicle market in Europe also supports the market of cobalt from plummeting. Finally, due to the impact of the epidemic, the international freight cost increases, which has a greater impact on China’s Cobalt market, which is heavily dependent on imports. The increase of cobalt cost has a certain support for the rise of cobalt price. In the future, the impact of the epidemic is gradually weakening, and the global market is slowly warming up. Stimulated by 5g mobile phones, the sales of mobile phones may usher in new growth in 2021, and the growth of new energy vehicles is irresistible. In the demand of cobalt Market in 2021, new energy vehicles will be the main force driving the rise of cobalt price. It is generally expected that the demand of cobalt Market in the future will still have a big outbreak point, and there is room for the rise of cobalt price in 2021 The price of cobalt is expected to hit the peak of 400000 yuan in 2021.
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