According to statistics, in 2020, the price trend of domestic rare earth market will increase mainly. The price of neodymium Series in domestic light rare earth market will increase greatly, neodymium oxide and metal neodymium will increase by about 70%, while the price of heavy rare earth market will increase slightly, but the price of terbium series will rise to a 10-year high. The price trend of some domestic rare earth products in 2020 is as follows:
At the beginning of the year, the price of neodymium oxide in the domestic market rose by 286.75 yuan / ton, and the price of neodymium oxide in the end of 2000 was 286.065 yuan / ton, The market price at the end of the year was 410000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 44.37%; the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy at the beginning of the year was 362000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 40.88%; the price of praseodymium oxide at the beginning of the year was 342500 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 2.92%; the price of praseodymium metal at the beginning of the year was 650000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 575000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 2.92% In 2020, the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic rare earth market will be sharp, and the price trend of light rare earth market will rise by a large margin.
According to statistics, the domestic market price of dysprosium oxide at the beginning of the year is 1750000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 1930000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 10.29%; the price of dysprosium metal at the beginning of the year is 2125000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 2425000 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 14.12%; the price of dysprosium ferroalloy at the beginning of the year is 1720000 yuan / ton, and the market price at the end of the year is 1920000 yuan / ton The annual increase was 11.63%, and the domestic heavy rare earth market prices increased to varying degrees.
It can be seen from the rare earth industry index chart that the price trend of domestic rare earth market can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of August, and the price trend of domestic rare earth market is in the stage of shock rising; the second stage is from September to the end of October, and the domestic rare earth market price is in the stage of soaring; the third stage is from the beginning of November to the end of the year.
In the first stage, the price of domestic rare earth market fluctuated and rose. During this period, affected by domestic and international public health events, the supply of rare earth decreased and the imbalance between supply and demand led to the price rise of domestic rare earth market. In the domestic rare earth purchase and storage plan, medium and heavy rare earth accounts for a large proportion of the annual output, which is expected to have a greater impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth. Considering that the current closure of Myanmar customs still has a tight impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earth, once the purchase and storage plan is implemented as scheduled, it will have a greater impact on the tight supply and demand and price rise of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium. Recently, the market in the market is general, and the price of heavy rare earth remains at a high level; in addition, with the resumption of work and production, the market of terminal new energy vehicles is picking up, the domestic supply of terbium rare earth is very tight, and the domestic price of terbium rare earth is rising. In terms of domestic light rare earths, driven by the positive promotion of new infrastructure projects all over the country, the price of rare earths continued to rise. The bullish attitude of on-site goods holders was obvious, and the merchants were reluctant to sell. The on-site rising sentiment was strong. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the import volume of overseas rare earth minerals declined significantly, and the waste recycling and monazite raw materials decreased, resulting in the decline of domestic rare earth smelting output, The recovery of domestic economy led to the recovery of downstream demand of rare earth, which supported the price of rare earth. The price of domestic light rare earth market continued to rise, and the price of domestic rare earth market gradually recovered and rose.
The second stage is from September to the end of October, when the price of domestic rare earth market rises and falls. At this stage, the price of PR nd Series in domestic light rare earths continued to fall. At present, the purchase in the industry has come to an end. In the early stage, the downstream stock preparation is more active, and some manufacturers are hoarding more goods. Recently, the purchasing sentiment has fallen down. In addition, under the influence of the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the price of PR nd Series in domestic light rare earths continued to fall. On the other hand, the market supply of PR nd rare earths in China is normal recently. In addition to the decline of downstream inquiries, the major manufacturers of light rare earths have sold off. The downstream feel the market mood change, the trading situation is declining, and the floor price is falling. The supply of light rare earth is normal, and the recent purchase is not active, so the market price is under pressure. During this period, the price of dysprosium series heavy rare earths in China also dropped correspondingly. Although the proportion of medium and heavy rare earths in the annual output in the domestic rare earth acquisition and storage plan is relatively large, it is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earths. In addition, the current closure of Myanmar customs still has a tightening impact on the domestic import and supply of medium and heavy rare earths, but the situation of acquisition and storage is uncertain, the market demand is not improved, and the price is gradually increasing However, due to the tight supply, the price of terbium series has been at a high level. However, the domestic rare earth downstream procurement is not active, and the on-site inventory is high, which leads to the price drop of domestic rare earth market.
The third stage is from the beginning of November to the end of November, when the price of domestic rare earth market rises sharply. With the rapid development of wind power, electronic products and other terminal industries, as the epidemic slows down, the capacity utilization rate of downstream manufacturers continues, the demand may continue to pick up, and the demand for NdFeB continues to increase. However, the domestic supply side is still in a contraction situation, and the supply and demand are seriously unbalanced, resulting in the crazy price rise of domestic NdFeB Market. Recently, the demand of permanent magnet manufacturers is relatively positive. Due to the increase of overseas demand, with the “export control law of the people’s Republic of China” officially coming into effect on December 1, the market expects that China’s rare earth export may be further reduced, and the global supply of rare earth may be further reduced. At that time, the supply of rare earth will be more tense, which will further promote the domestic market price. Compared with the market price of neodymium series, the domestic heavy rare earth market price also has a corresponding rise. Dysprosium and terbium series market is still a model of heavy rare earth market. Under the new situation, the strategic value of rare earth is expected to continue to improve. The United States, Japan and Europe and the United States have made corresponding plans to include rare earth into the national strategic resource reserve plan. The advantages of rare earth strategic resources are prominent. China is a large rare earth reserve country, with rare earth reserves accounting for 37% of the world. At the same time, China is also a large rare earth exporter. The country has made corresponding adjustments to the development of rare earth industry, and the rare earth industry is heading for high quality The domestic rare earth market price trend is strong.
The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to issue the total control index of rare earth mining, smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2020. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining, smelting separation in 2020 will be 140000 tons and 130000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2019 will be 132000 tons, an increase of 8000 tons, and 2020 is the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry, saying that the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for rare earth enterprise declaration, forming the collection of supporting policies related to the resumption of rare earth industry. With favorable policies to support the development of rare earth industry and tense Sino US relations, the key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance.
In 2020, the price trend of domestic rare earth market has increased in varying degrees. The price of domestic light rare earth market has increased greatly, and the heavy rare earth market has been at a high level. The price of terbium series has risen to a 10-year high. In addition, the country’s rectification of the rare earth industry is becoming more and more serious. In 2020, the amount of rare earth mining has also increased, and the development of new energy vehicles is faster and faster. At the same time, on December 1, the export control law of the people’s Republic of China officially came into effect. The market expects that China’s rare earth exports may be further reduced, and the global supply of rare earth may be further contracted. At that time, the supply of rare earth will be more tense, forming a certain positive support for the domestic rare earth market. Chen Ling, rare earth analyst of business society, predicts that the development of rare earth industry will continue to improve in 2021. The domestic heavy rare earth market price may maintain a high level, while the domestic light rare earth market is at a high level. The price may maintain a high level in 2021, and there is no lack of the possibility of a small rise.
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