According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic PP market fluctuated and adjusted in the last ten months, and the spot prices of various brands fell slightly. As of January 11, 2021, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8116.67 yuan / ton, which is 0.41% lower than the average price level at the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
In terms of PP upstream propylene, according to the data from the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price began to pick up after new year’s day, and increased by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. On the 5th and 6th, the price was mainly stable, and only a few enterprises went up. On the 8th, some prices fell. Now the market transaction is between 7250 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still around 7250 yuan / ton. Factory inventory is general, stable delivery. The weekly decline was 0.16% and the amplitude was 0.41%. The downstream operation rate rose slightly, but the price was bad, and propylene accounted for the majority. Therefore, it is expected that the recent propylene price will be mainly affected by the game between crude oil market and downstream trend.
At present, the propylene market is stable, while PP cost side support is acceptable. January to undertake last December’s PP (wire drawing) market decline trend, the beginning of the market futures spot prices. In the first ten days, the terminal demand was not strong, the procurement operation was biased towards rigid demand, and the trading was relatively weak. There are few large orders in the market, which is bad for PP spot price. In addition, Shijiazhuang closed petrochemical plants and downstream plants due to the epidemic, and logistics was also greatly affected. Many negative effects dragged down the PP market, and the spot price was low.
According to the data monitored by the business community, as of January 11, the mainstream offer of Z30S (fiber) by domestic producers and traders had fallen slightly compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of about 8250 yuan / ton, down 0.80% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. In the early stage, the decline of domestic total inventory slowed down and rebounded around New Year’s day. At present, the number of maintenance units in domestic PP plants is reduced, the operating rate is high, and the supply of goods is sufficient. In addition, after the high opening of futures at the beginning of the month, the demand for fiber PP is expected to continue to decline as the holiday approaches. Expected PP (fiber) prices or will remain stable in a downward trend.
At the beginning of January, the market of PP meltblown material was flat, and the price tended to be stable. As of November 11, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was 10833.33 yuan / ton. Around the new year’s day, the epidemic situation in some areas of China rebounded on a small scale, and the overall situation was generally stable. There was no large-scale increase in the demand for anti epidemic materials such as masks. The situation of oversupply in the melt blown fabric manufacturing market has not been improved, and the profit is seriously diluted. The second outbreak of overseas epidemic is obvious, and many countries have once again announced the implementation of strict City closure. There is still a certain demand for international medical protection products, but the price of overseas materials is stable. The domestic and international melt blown PP price level has entered the platform period, and it is expected that the price trend of melt blown PP will be stable.
Future forecast
Business community PP analysts believe: in early January, the domestic PP spot market fluctuated slightly. The upstream propylene market turned down, but the range was not large, and the support for PP cost side was acceptable. At present, PP wire drawing material and fiber material market is stable and weak, market confidence is insufficient, futures open low, bad spot price. The demand of PP (melt blown) is general, and the price tends to be stable. In terms of fundamentals, the current supply of PP is sufficient, and there is no large-scale demand. It is expected that the market of PP will be weak in the near future.
| Thiourea |