Price trend:
According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic ABS market rose in the second half of January, and the spot prices of various brands rose in the third week. As of January 26, the mainstream offer price of general ABS was about 16650 yuan / ton, up 5.71% from the average price level at the beginning of January.
Factor analysis:
ABS upstream styrene market recently overall negative. Crude oil remained stable, pure benzene finished in a narrow market, ethylene fell in a weak position, styrene cost support surface was acceptable, and overall styrene position decreased in the outer market. In the third week, the import source was obviously less, the port inventory accumulation was slow, the operation rate of domestic styrene rose, and the supply on the site was good. As the downstream plants gradually enter the period of production reduction or shutdown, the demand for styrene shrinks again. Generally speaking, with the advent of seasonal off-season, the demand support is not strong. It is expected that in the short term, the market will once again periodically suppress the profit of styrene production, and styrene may adjust in a weak way,
Butadiene market continued to decline in the first half of the month, the current decline has slowed down. The main reason is that the supply side of the domestic market has increased significantly, and some maintenance devices have started to restart and release capacity in the early stage. At the same time, the external supply is also sufficient, and the prices are constantly falling, which affects the domestic market mentality. Under the drag of supply, the butadiene market was in a weak downward trend, and there was a certain bottom support for the price of butadiene in the recent downstream pre Festival stock, forming a pattern of price decline slowing down and the market gradually deadlocked. At present, the market is lack of good guidance, and it is expected that the market consolidation will mainly wait and see.
In late January, the domestic ABS market went out of a small upsurge. Although the upstream raw materials fluctuated and the cost support weakened, recently it was in the pre holiday stock up stage, and the downstream factories just needed to stock up. The supply of ABS in China is fair, but the volume of stock transaction is large, and some brands such as 0215a and 417 are in short supply to a certain extent. In some areas, the market rose with the trend. Entering the end of the month, the current downstream just need to stock gradually ended, market trading weakened, medium-term expected short.
Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that: in late January, the ABS market remained stable after its strength, and the prices of some brands rose considerably. The cost side of the market is different, the overall support of ABS cost side is not strong. At present, with the end of downstream goods preparation, the market atmosphere is gradually weakening. The market will enter the off-season of demand during the Spring Festival holiday. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will stagnate in the near future and begin to callback.
| Thiourea |