1、 Price trend
According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on January 28 was 4183.33 yuan / ton, up 3.98% from the previous day, 8.19% from the beginning of the week, and 35.38% from the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
This week, the domestic liquefied natural gas stopped falling and rose, but the rise was much milder than the previous peak stage, with a daily rise of about 1% – 4%. Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and other places actively increased. The upsurge of liquid price in this round is mainly due to the cold air boost, the rain and snow weather in the northern region, the urban fuel demand has picked up, coupled with the drop of high liquid price, the increase of downstream acceptance, the demand has also increased to a certain extent, the liquid factory has no pressure to ship, and the price has been pushed up. Moreover, the price of liquid dropped sharply in the early stage, some enterprises hung upside down, and profits dropped sharply. This time, we are willing to take advantage of the situation to push up. With the coming of the new year, downstream users have holidays one after another, the purchasing enthusiasm has declined, the demand side has continued to weaken, the liquid price in the future has continued to rise, the lack of action, and there is a downward risk.
According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on January 28 was 4183.33 yuan / ton, up 3.98% from the previous day, 8.19% from the beginning of the week, and 35.38% from the same period last year. Inner Mongolia rose 150-400 yuan / ton, Shaanxi rose 50-250 yuan / ton, Shanxi rose 150-200 yuan / ton, Ningxia rose 200-250 yuan / ton, Henan rose 350-400 yuan / ton. The price of liquid rose positively.
Regional specifications rose and fell from January 28 to January 25
Inner Mongolia LNG 3800-4450 3650-4050 150-400
Shaanxi LNG 4150-4350 3700-4100 50-250
Shanxi LNG 4100-4400 3850-4250 150-200
Ningxia ﹣ LNG ﹣ 4000-4350 ﹣ 3800-4100 ﹣ 200-250
Henan LNG 4600-4850 4200-4500350-400
For downstream methanol, the factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong Province was lowered on January 28. The price of methanol in the south of Shandong Province is about 2220-2230 yuan / ton in cash. Linyi receives local goods and sends them to cash around 2210-2220 yuan / ton. There is no quotation for logistics goods, and the downstream receiving is limited. The operators wait and see, and the market atmosphere is general. Shandong methanol Lubei market transaction price is stable at 2150-2180 yuan / ton to cash. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.
Urea, January 28, Shandong urea market temporarily stable. The downstream demand is tightening as a whole. In agriculture, the price of urea is relatively high and the agricultural procurement is cautious. In industry, due to the impact of air pollution control in some areas, plate enterprises shut down, and compound fertilizer enterprises started with general load, so the demand for proper follow-up. On the supply side, the early maintenance units started in succession, and the output increased steadily. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly and fall mainly.
Dichloromethane, January 28, Shandong area methane chloride market down. The market price of methane chloride in Shandong has been reduced. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 3320-3330 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of trichloromethane market is 2440-2500 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream market of dichloromethane has a high degree of completion of goods preparation, and the demand for dichloromethane is weak. In addition, the price of raw materials in the upstream is declining, which leads to a sharp decline in the price of dichloromethane Dichloromethane market is weak.
In January, the external market price of ethylene rose first and then fell. On January 1, the price was US $1024.00/ton, while on January 28, the average price of ethylene was US $1012.00/ton, down 1.17%, up 20.01% year on year. At present, crude oil: US crude oil inventory is declining, but the market’s continued concern about the epidemic has limited oil demand, international oil prices fluctuate slightly, and cost support is general. Therefore, data analysts from business news agency predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall in the next few days.
3、 Future forecast
Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency think: cold air boost, urban fuel demand rebounds, liquid plant inventory is controllable, shipping pressure is not big, positive price support, liquid price is still expected to rise in the short term, but the year is coming, downstream users have shut down for holidays, purchasing enthusiasm is declining, demand side continues to weaken, coupled with the recent supply side is relatively stable, liquid price continues to rise in the future Lack of motivation and downside risk.
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