According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on March 31 was 39.00, down 1.37 points from yesterday, down 61.00% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 42.96% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
Data monitoring shows that in the first quarter of 2021, natural rubber showed a trend of rise and fall, and February 25 was the watershed of this round of market. Among them, from January to February 25, natural rubber fluctuated upward, especially after the Spring Festival holiday to February 25, natural rubber domestic all latex (Baodao) rose from 13000 yuan / ton to 16287 yuan / ton, up by 25%; then, affected by about four times of downward shocks of crude oil, natural rubber, as a futures commodity, weakened, and by March 31, the downward range was as high as 19.25% About 13150 yuan / ton of rubber is reported. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of domestic natural rubber latex was 16287 yuan / ton on February 25, breaking through 16000 yuan / ton, which was the highest in three years since 2018, up about 25% from 13000 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021, while the last high was 19800 yuan / ton on February 10, 2017.
Natural rubber was obviously affected by the sharp rise and fall of crude oil in this quarter: the sharp rise from February 18 to 25 was also due to the sharp rise of crude oil. On the basis of the lowest annual supply of natural rubber and the gradual recovery of downstream construction, natural rubber rose sharply driven by the upsurge of market atmosphere; also due to the guidance of crude oil, crude oil prices experienced three sharp rises in March Diving, respectively, on the 9th, 18th and 23rd, natural rubber fell about 14%.
However, due to a small amount of tapping in the main natural rubber producing areas in China, although the official tapping was delayed due to severe insect pests in Yunnan, the weather in Hainan this year is good, and some of them have been tapping. Although the quantity is small, under the following good weather, a large number of domestic new rubber may be launched in the middle and late April. Although the main production areas in Southeast Asia still stop cutting season, it is not far away from the opening of new rubber for more than a month. The market is increasingly worried about the new rubber listing, and the confidence is frustrated. The market of natural rubber is obviously weakening.
From the perspective of downstream demand, the purchasing situation of downstream factories has improved in the near future. From the perspective of tire enterprises, data statistics show that in the third week of March, as of March 25, the starting load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 78.03%, up 0.34% from the previous week, up 13.74% from the same period last year; the starting load of semi steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.01%, up 0.35% from the previous week, up 10.62% from the same period last year. From the perspective of automobile data, the average daily retail sales of passenger car market in the third week of March reached 46000 units, which was 5% higher than that in the third week of March 2019, and the performance was relatively good; the first three weeks of March this year were basically the same as that in 2019. However, compared with the first three weeks of January, the trend is relatively weak. The haze and sandstorm weather in North China in mid March is expected to stimulate sales growth again. However, recently, the global automobile industry chain has been affected by the “core shortage” all over the world. For example, as of the 31st, due to the lack of chips, Weilai automobile Hefei plant stopped its seven day automobile production; Tesla Model Y’s price has increased by 8000 yuan due to the “core shortage”; moreover, many automobile enterprises have also faced the shutdown since the second half of last year. Of course, some auto companies in China have started to develop chips on their own. BYD has started to develop chips since 2005. Geely, great wall, Wuling and other state-owned auto companies have also started to develop chips on their own. However, according to the prediction of market research institutions, the shortage of automotive chips will not be eased until the second half of 2021. During this period, the production of automotive enterprises will be affected, and the demand for raw rubber will also be affected.
In terms of inventory, as of March 26, the total inventory of the previous period was 175902 tons (+ 900), and the volume of futures warehouse receipts was 170920 tons (+ 300), both of which increased. As of March 21, the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to drop slightly, but the inventory outside the zone picked up, mainly due to the slow down of delivery after the downstream took the goods the week before. Due to the low overseas production and the high operating rate of domestic tire factories, it is expected that in the short term, going to the warehouse can still be maintained.
From a policy perspective, in order to achieve the goal of stabilizing the rubber price, the Thai rubber authority has taken new measures, the most important of which is the fresh latex management project. Rubber Research Institute of Thailand cooperates with universities to develop the matching technology of latex preservation, which aims to improve the shelf life of fresh latex from 4-5 days to 1-2 months. In this way, rubber farmers do not have to rush to sell all the fresh latex at one time, so that there will not be too many goods pouring into the market, and the raw material supply of the processing plant in the low production period can be guaranteed. The Thai government will set up centralized storage tanks for latex and provide financial subsidies for rubber farmers. The goal is to withdraw more than 200000 tons of latex from the market. In addition, the Thai rubber bureau also launched a more mobile sales mechanism for cup rubber, and set a market reference standard for cigarette film, so as to help the smooth operation of the price system of various rubber types.
With regard to the future market, the business community believes that in the short term, the market has a strong worry about the new rubber market after cutting, which has a greater impact on the market. At the same time, the severe epidemic prevention situation in foreign countries, weak demand and the shutdown caused by the lack of “core” of automobile enterprises are also affected by multiple factors, such as the transmission factor of crude oil affected by more interference factors, the trend of shock, and the supporting role of natural rubber Insufficient, weak market. In the short term, we are still wary of the transmission effect of the substantial change of crude oil on natural rubber. From the middle and late of next month, we are wary of the significant impact of the new rubber on the market.
| Thiourea |