Price trend:
According to the data of the business club’s block list, the ABS market was first depressed and then rose in March, and the spot price position fell as a whole. As of April 1, the mainstream offer price of general ABS was about 18300 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.14% compared with the average price level in early March, and a rise of 68.66% compared with the same period last year.
Factor analysis:
After the upstream styrene entered March, the chemical industry sector showed a trend of first rising and then falling. The advantages of the early crude oil surge and the tight supply caused by external emergencies were exhausted, and the styrene price fell this month. In addition, the macro inflation and the expected increase of domestic demand in the early stage are still acting on the market. In addition, the recent device maintenance and replenishment at the end of the month, although the long and short struggle, but still stop falling in the last ten days and began to rebound, it is expected that styrene will be slightly stronger in the short term.
Compared with styrene, butadiene, on the other hand, went out of the opposite market. In the first half of this month, the domestic butadiene market remained strong at a high level with a positive trend. At the end of this month, the spot price suddenly fell. In the early stage, the international crude oil price continued to rise, which saved the butadiene market at the beginning of the new year. In March, we heard that the export of domestic products increased, which strengthened the market confidence. The supply of goods continued to warm up and reached a critical point at the end of the month, resulting in the contradiction between supply and demand. Merchants actively ship goods, and the market mentality tends to be short-term bearish. Butadiene is expected to continue to decline in the near future, looking for market equilibrium.
At present, the price of ABS at the cost side fluctuates. The spot price of ABS continues to fall in the first half of this month, and rebounds in the second half of this month. In March, the operating rate of petrochemical enterprises was high, and the plant was close to full load operation. In terms of supply, the domestic production of ABS this month is more than 360000 tons, and the supply on site is relatively abundant. The market competition is strengthened, and the buyer’s resistance to high price goods is increased. In addition, the price position of ABS was higher due to the favorable situation in the upstream, the downstream factories just needed to operate the replenishment, the demand kinetic energy was insufficient, and the social inventory began to rise. But gradually entering the peak demand season, the home appliance industry began to make efforts in the latter half of the year, stabilizing the demand side of ABS, and the spot price immediately stopped falling and rebounded.
Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that: ABS market fell at a high level in March, and recovered at the end of the month. The trend of cost side is different, and the support for ABS cost side is general. The continuous high opening rate eased the tight supply side in the early stage, and the current spot supply has warmed up. Downstream factories maintain rigid demand procurement, and the demand has increased at the end of the month. However, judging from the market performance this week, the resistance of downstream factories to high price supply is still heavy. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic ABS price will remain stable.
| Thiourea |