Continuous rise in cost, aniline price boosted (202.5.3-5.9)

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of aniline rose broadly within the week. On April 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10600-10800 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11000 yuan / ton. On May 9, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11300-11500 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11700 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 7.76% over last week, 46.41% over the beginning of the year, and 151.45% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, Sinopec’s listing price increased by 300 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton within the week. Crude oil fluctuated at a high level, with good cost support. The pure benzene resources in Europe and the United States are in short supply, and the arbitrage window with Asia is opened, and the price of the external market is rising. At home, the domestic pure benzene market is active, the spot supply is tight, and Sinopec’s listing price is high. On Sunday (May 9), the price of pure benzene was 7600-7853 yuan / ton (the average price was 7720 yuan / ton), which was 310 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 4.18%; It was 136.09% higher than that of the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid dropped slightly this week. On Friday (May 7), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2266.67 yuan / ton, down 1.45% from last week and up 58.14% from the same period last year.

The aniline maintenance unit had not been restarted in the past week, and Jinling Aniline Unit was reduced to half load operation during the festival, so the supply was reduced. The cost side price continued to rise, and the bidding price of aniline enterprises rose, which was good for aniline. The price of aniline rose broadly in the week.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost and market, the supply of pure benzene in the spot market is tight. In addition, Hongrun Petrochemical stopped exporting, and the supply in the market decreased. In terms of external market, Europe and the United States will maintain supply tension in the short term, with strong external support. Overall, the trend of short-term pure benzene is expected to be stronger. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

Cost side support is strong, and there is still the possibility of short-term upward. In terms of market, there are still aniline plants that have not been restarted, with stable spot supply and stable downstream demand. In general, short-term aniline in pure benzene driven, there is a rising momentum. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.