1、 Price trend
According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on May 13 was 3910 yuan / ton, up 28.2% compared with that on May 7, 12.25% month on month, and 39.64% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
After the May Day holiday, domestic LNG rose sharply in the off-season, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 40%. Looking back last week, the rise of liquefied natural gas was relatively moderate, and most of the liquid plants made tentative adjustments, with a small range. In this week, the one-day increase of LNG was in the range of 4.27% – 8.7%. In just seven days, the increase had exceeded 28%. Some of them had a second price adjustment, and the rise was strong. This round of increase is mainly due to the increase of manufacturers’ maintenance, tight supply, low enterprise inventory, rising demand after the festival, and the rise of imported gas prices. Domestic liquid prices are supported by multiple positive factors. At present, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and other places continue to rise, and some liquid plants have risen to more than 4000 yuan, recovering part of the previous decline and moving up the center of gravity.
In late May, the starting price of gas source bidding was 1.68-1.78 yuan / m3, which was 0.1-0.2 yuan / m3 higher than that in the first ten days. The cost support was gradually strengthened, which once again boosted the market atmosphere. The manufacturers supported the price rise, the market participants had a positive attitude, and the short-term market was relatively strong. However, the negative factors in the off-season are still in place. The increase in demand is not as fast as the rise in liquid prices. Moreover, there is a conflict in the downstream market. It may choose other alternative resources to divert part of the demand. Therefore, the off-season surge is not easy to last.
On May 13, the domestic LNG market price continued to rise, with 3730-4100 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 3900-3970 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 3800-4080 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 3700-3950 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 3850-3900 yuan / ton in Henan, 3580-3850 yuan / ton in Hebei and 3650-4100 yuan / ton in Sichuan.
region Specifications May 13th May 8th Up and down
Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 3730-4100 2950-3250 Up 480-850
Shaanxi liquified natural gas 3900-3970 3050-3250 Up 650-750
Shanxi liquified natural gas 3800-4080 3100-3320 Up 480-760
Ningxia liquified natural gas 3700-3950 3020-3100 Up 600-850
Henan Province liquified natural gas 3850-3900 3450-3490 Up 360-410
Hebei liquified natural gas 3580-3850 3030-3350 Up 230-500
Sichuan liquified natural gas 3650-4100 3300-3450 Up 200-650
Downstream products rose more than fell less:
Methanol, May 13, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange methanol futures high consolidation, closing at 2755 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day’s closing up 139 yuan / ton, futures rose 5.31%. The spot market of methanol is also rising. The main production areas in Northwest China drive the spot price of methanol in other regions to continue to rise. The supply and demand of raw coal is tight, which promotes the cost of coal to methanol. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of May 13, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2680 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 13.80% and a year-on-year increase of 54.91%. In the near future, methanol futures are greatly affected by steam coal futures. At present, the methanol market is basically good. Methanol analysts of business cooperatives expect that the spot market of short-term methanol market will follow up slowly.
Urea, upstream liquid ammonia Market recent high consolidation, cost support is good. In the aspect of demand, agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; The start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, and most of them followed the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 70%, with a decrease, and the daily output is about 150000 tons. Urea plant maintenance, supply side tightening. India bid: on May 5, the bidding price of mmtc urea in India was announced. The lowest price on the west coast was 358.99 USD / T CFR, and the lowest price on the east coast was 356.99 USD / T CFR, equivalent to about 2120 RMB / T. It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will rise slightly in the future
Dichloromethane. On May 13, the reference price of dichloromethane was 3803.33, which was 4.77% higher than that on May 1 (3630.00). After the festival, the price of raw material liquid chlorine in Shandong Province fell sharply, and the cost was dragged by dichloromethane; However, the maintenance plan of methane chloride in the later period will provide some support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane will still be mainly explored in the later period.
3、 Future forecast
LNG analysts of business news agency believe that: in the near future, the domestic LNG market has been greatly pushed up by multiple favorable factors, and the rising momentum is strong. The manufacturers actively support the price, and the market entrants are optimistic. In the short term, the market is relatively strong, and the price is expected to continue to rise.