According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on September 5 was 37.14, the same as yesterday, down 62.86% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 36.14% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in the first week of September 2021
Figure 3: Weekly K-line chart of mainstream price of natural rubber in the first week of September 2021
Data monitoring shows that from the end of August to September 5, 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber continued to decrease slightly. It was reported as 12697.5 yuan / ton on Monday and 12525 yuan / ton on Friday, a decrease of 1.36%.
From the perspective of new rubber output: the new rubber in the main natural rubber production area this month is in the peak production season. Due to the comprehensive impact of epidemic situation, rainfall and shipping problems, the rubber import and export volume is not high, and the raw material prices in the domestic and foreign markets fluctuated and fell weekly. The data show that the glue price in Heai, Thailand last Friday was 48.7 baht / kg, down 2.8 baht / kg from the average price of the previous week; The price of cup glue was 44.45 baht / kg, down 2.78 baht / kg month on month. The price of glue in Yunnan is 12100 yuan / ton, and the price of cup glue is 11300 yuan / ton, down 160 yuan / ton and 40 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week; The price of glue in Hainan was 12200 yuan / ton, and the weekly average price was 12320 yuan / ton, down 460 yuan / ton from the previous week.
From the downstream demand: first, from the situation of China’s tire manufacturers, the data statistics show that in the week of September 2, the weekly operating rate of domestic all steel tires was 50.13%, down 5.45% month on month and 24.31% compared with the same period in 2020; The weekly operating rate of semi steel tire was 54.66%, down 3.04% from the previous week and 15.46% from the same period in 2020. On August 26, the central ecological and environmental protection supervision team was stationed in Jilin, Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan provinces, which is expected to end on September 26. Secondly, from the automobile data, according to the ten day report of key enterprises according to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in August 2021, the sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 1.711 million, a month on month decrease of 8.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%; In terms of categories, the sales of passenger cars decreased by 17.5% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial vehicles decreased by 43.8% year-on-year. From January to August 2021, the cumulative sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 16.467 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.1%; In terms of categories, the sales of passenger cars increased by 15.1% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial vehicles increased by 5.4% year-on-year.
In terms of inventory, the stock of natural rubber in the previous period was 225354 tons (+ 5762 tons) as of September 3, the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 192480 tons (+ 3700 tons), and the domestic delivery inventory increased; In the previous period, the energy inventory of No. 20 rubber futures warehouse receipt was 30161 tons, a decrease of 917 tons compared with August 27 and an increase of 284 tons compared with the same period in 2020. The spot inventory in Qingdao continued to decline. It is reported that as of August 27, the total inventory of local natural rubber samples was 459700 tons, a month on month decrease of 9400 tons; Among them, the inventory in the free trade zone was 77600 tons, a month on month decrease of 0200 tons, the general trade inventory was 382100 tons, a month on month decrease of 9200 tons, and the natural rubber in Qingdao port is still in the state of de stocking, and the inventory of natural rubber is accelerated.
In terms of import and export: Tires: affected by the global epidemic and the continuous rise of freight, the problem of shipping will continue to affect China’s tire export: according to the analysis, since 2021, the quotation of shipping charges from Qingdao port to the Middle East, America, Europe and other regions has been rising, and Qingdao port to Daman, Saudi Arabia The sea freight for 40 foot containers in Jebel Ali and other ports in Dubai increased from US $3500-360 to US $7700-7800 at the beginning of the year, and the sea freight for Europe and America increased from about US $9000 to US $15000-20000 at the beginning of the year. The Middle East, America and Europe are the regions where domestic tires are intensively exported. The continuous rise of sea freight has increased the export pressure of domestic tire enterprises. Rubber: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7, China imported 529000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2021, down 24.3% from 699000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to August 2021, China imported 4.348 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 3.5% from 4.508 million tons in the same period in 2020.
As for the future, according to the analysis of the business society, from the macro perspective, the adjustment of the original oil price is over, and in the medium and short term, the oil price is still restricted by the increase of supply and the weakening of demand. At present, it has entered the traditional peak production and marketing season of “golden nine silver ten”, but the weak downstream demand caused by many factors is likely to lead to weak short-term shock of natural rubber; However, driven by the overall traditional consumption peak season, there should be a round of upward prices in the middle and late of the consumption peak season; Then, in the two months at the end of the year, due to the weather, the domestic rubber producing areas will gradually reduce the output, and the rubber price will also strengthen.
| Thiourea |