Domestic cobalt prices rose in October
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According to the data monitoring of business society, the domestic cobalt price rose in October, and the cobalt price fluctuated and adjusted at the edge of 400000 yuan. As of October 31, the cobalt price was 404200 yuan / ton, up 5.92% from 381600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1). On October 15, after the cobalt price broke through 400000 yuan / ton for the first time, the cobalt price fluctuated and adjusted. For half a month, the cobalt price has been on the edge of 400000 yuan. The cobalt price on October 31 only increased by 4000 yuan / ton or 1% compared with that on October 15.
The international cobalt price rose sharply in October
According to the LME cobalt price trend chart, the shock stabilized after the sharp rise of the international cobalt price in October, and the rise of the international cobalt market was good for the domestic cobalt market. In late October, the international cobalt price stabilized, which weakened the support for the rise of the domestic cobalt market. After the domestic cobalt price broke through 4, the rising power was insufficient.
As can be seen from the trend chart of MB cobalt price, in October, MB cobalt price continued to rise in shock, and the cobalt price rose slowly. The international cobalt price still supported the domestic cobalt market, but the rising power was weakened.
Sales of new energy vehicles rose sharply
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in September 2021, China’s domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 353000 and 357000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 14.5% and 11.4%. In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached a record high in a single month, and both broke through the 350000 mark, breaking the historical production and sales record for the third consecutive month. Compared with the same period in 2020, the production and sales volume in this month increased by 216.6% and 148.4% year-on-year. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in September was 21.1%, and the penetration rate from January to September was 12.6%, significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. The sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise, which was good for the cobalt market, and the future demand of the cobalt market was expected to rise sharply.
Mobile phone shipments fell both month on month and month on month
According to the analysis report on the operation of the domestic mobile phone market in September 2021 released by the China Academy of communications and communications, the mobile phone shipment in the domestic market in September was 21.44 million, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, 24.306 million in August, and 11.8% in September; In the third quarter of 2021, the total shipments of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 7442.2, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. From January to September 2021, the total shipments of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 249 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Mobile phone sales fell month on month and month on month for two consecutive months. Although mobile phone shipments continued to rise year-on-year from January to September, the future mobile phone market was full of fatigue, and the decline of mobile phone sales was bad for the cobalt market.
According to strategy analytics, in Q3 of 2021, global smartphone shipments decreased by 10.8% year-on-year to 327.3 million. Supply constraints are expected to continue until the first half of 2022. Global mobile phone sales fell sharply, and the demand of cobalt market is expected to decline significantly, which is bad for the cobalt market.
The new energy vehicle market continues to receive good news
On October 28, the Yichun era new lithium ion battery production and manufacturing base project invested and constructed by Ningde era officially laid the foundation in Yichun economic development zone. The first phase invested 13.5 billion yuan to build a 50gwh new lithium battery production and manufacturing base project. Tesla has booked lithium iron phosphate batteries for next year’s sales plan from Ningde times, a leading Chinese power battery enterprise.
On October 26, Tesla’s market value exceeded $1 trillion. Recently, Hertz, a car rental company, placed an order for 100000 cars with Tesla. In 2022, Tesla Nevada battery plant will also expand its production to more than 40gwh. Coupled with the supply of Panasonic and LG Chemical, Tesla will sell at least 1.5 million vehicles in 2022.
According to the Research Report of CICC, the global sales and penetration of new energy vehicles have accelerated. According to the experience of S-shaped growth curve and the latest industrial chain guidelines, the sales of electric vehicles are expected to exceed 10 million in 2022.
The sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to explode in 2022, stimulating the outbreak of relevant industrial chains. Although lithium iron phosphate seizes a large market share of ternary batteries, the explosive growth of new energy vehicles drives the growth of ternary battery sales. It is expected that the installed capacity of Tesla’s ternary battery vehicles in 22 years will exceed the total annual sales volume of Tesla in 21 years. The sales of ternary power battery broke out, the demand of cobalt market is expected to surge, and the future cobalt market is good.
Market Overview
Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that the rise in international cobalt prices in October stimulated the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt prices followed the rise. However, in terms of demand, the demand of mobile phone market has fallen sharply, which is bad for the cobalt Market; In terms of new energy vehicles, although the sales volume of new energy vehicles doubled, the ternary battery occupied a large market share by lithium iron phosphate battery. The growth of ternary battery was less than the market expectation, the continuous rise of cobalt market was insufficient, and the cobalt price struggled to adjust around 400000 yuan / ton in October. In the future, new energy vehicles are expected to break out in 22 years. In order to ensure production and Book battery orders in advance, battery production will break out earlier than the production and sales of new energy vehicles, and the rise of cobalt price is inevitable. However, due to the inventory of cobalt market still exists and large automobile enterprises mostly sign long-term agreements with cobalt mining enterprises, it has little impact on cobalt price, and the cobalt price is expected to rise slightly in the future.
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