According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has seen a slight upward trend in recent days (3.1-3.12). On March 12th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7270 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% from 7210 yuan/ton on March 1st.
International crude oil prices fluctuate narrowly, with toluene receiving some support
Recently (3.1-3.12), on the one hand, the geopolitical situation has been relatively calm, but market concerns about demand still exist; On the other hand, OPEC+agreed earlier this month to extend its voluntary production reduction until the second quarter, and the recent narrow fluctuations in the international crude oil market still provide some support for the cost of toluene. As of March 11th, WTI04 contract settlement is $77.93 per barrel; Brent 05 contract settlement is $82.21 per barrel. The high consolidation of Asian toluene prices provides some support for the domestic market. As of March 11th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 893-895 US dollars per ton.
Starting production of xylene temporarily stabilizes toluene and obtains necessary support
The domestic supply of xylene is stable, and the domestic PX operating rate is maintained at over 80%. The operation of the Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, but there are still some units undergoing maintenance, and there is sufficient spot supply. This week, the international crude oil price range fluctuated, and PX external prices have decreased. As of the 7th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 977-979 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1002-1004 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.
Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand
After the holiday, the recovery of the domestic mixed blending market was slow, and the demand for mixed xylene mixed blending weakened. As of March 7th, the construction of refineries nationwide was around 7.3.
Continuous increase in toluene port inventory and increased supply pressure
Domestic toluene port inventories have continued to remain at high levels. As of March 8th, toluene inventories in East China were 90000 tons, while those in South China were 19000 tons. There is still a slight increase compared to the previous period, and the pressure on toluene supply remains. The domestic production of toluene is stable, with a rate of around 740% as of March 11th.
Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil is experiencing narrow fluctuations, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, the recovery of demand in some downstream industries is slow, and the support for rigid demand is weak; Finally, the inventory of toluene at the port is high, and the pressure on the supply side of toluene remains. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will mainly experience fluctuations in the later period.
| http://www.thiourea.net |