In May, the diethylene glycol market rose first and then fell. In June, it may remain weak

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of May 31, 2024, the reference price for diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the price on May 1, 2024 (reference price for diethylene glycol is 5495 yuan/ton), a decrease of 0.36%.


From the monitoring of data from Business Society, it can be seen that the domestic diethylene glycol market rose first and then fell in May. The supply and demand fundamentals of diethylene glycol have weakened this month, with the market’s focus initially rising and then falling. At the beginning of the month, the highest inventory at the main port was 46000 tons, and the number of ships arriving within the month was average. After the inventory decreased, it fluctuated narrowly and did not show any significant increase. However, it did not provide effective support to the market. The main reason is that downstream demand performance was flat, UPR and polyester industry demand was weak, and the market lacked upward momentum. The downstream stocking atmosphere before the May Day holiday caused a slight increase in the market, while the main port inventory increased significantly after the holiday. However, the impact on the market was limited, and demand follow-up remained relatively stable. The supply and demand side slightly improved, and the market operated firmly with price fluctuations rising. In mid month, the market weakened and consolidated after rising, with main port inventories showing a downward trend and little change on the supply side. Downstream UPR production remained stable, while the polyester industry saw a decline in production. The overall performance of the demand side was weak, and the mentality of the industry was average. After a narrow rise in the market, it weakened and consolidated. In the second half of the month, the market center of gravity fluctuated and declined. Some domestic devices had plans to restart, and there was a relatively concentrated import arrival at the end of the month. The supply side had weak expectations, coupled with continued weak downstream demand, the focus of market negotiations gradually weakened.


Inventory and shipment situation: In May, the inventory of diethylene glycol in the main port of East China first increased and then decreased, with the highest point being 46100 tons and the lowest point being 32800 tons. As of May 30, 2024, the inventory of diethylene glycol in East China was 34400 tons, a decrease of 3100 tons from the end of April and a year-on-year increase of 14500 tons; The overall inventory of East and South China was 39600 tons, a decrease of 5100 tons from the end of April and a year-on-year increase of 14200 tons.


In May 2024, the total shipment volume from Zhangjiagang Port in East China was 29500 tons, a decrease of 6200 tons from April, and the daily average shipment volume was about 983 tons. In May, the downstream unsaturated resin and polyester industry saw a decline in production, leading to a decrease in demand for diethylene glycol and a decrease in the number of shipments from ports.


Future forecast: The domestic diethylene glycol market will fluctuate in a weak range in June. In June, domestic maintenance equipment was gradually restarted, and domestic supply was expected to increase. The change in import quantity may not be significant compared to May, and the supply side has limited market support; In terms of demand, the downstream main UPR gradually entered a seasonal off-season in June, and the polyester industry will also experience some production reduction. It may be difficult to provide effective support for the demand for diethylene glycol. Overall, the domestic diethylene glycol market may fluctuate in a weak range in June, and attention should be paid to equipment, demand performance, and changes in market mentality.