Crude oil prices hit a nearly five-month low China’s refined oil prices are expected to decline

May 11 at 24 o’clock, China will usher in the ninth time during the refined oil price adjustment window, the industry forecast the current round of domestic refined oil prices are expected to usher in a more substantial reduction.

Oil production accounted for more than one-third of the world’s OPEC in November 30, 2016 reached a cut agreement. In December the same year, led by Russia more than a dozen non-OPEC oil producers announced the reduction of production. These two production agreements have been implemented since 2017, the implementation period of 6 months.

Today, the implementation of production is nearing completion, but due to the strong recovery of US shale oil, the first half of this year, the situation of global crude oil oversupply did not show significant improvement.

Since mid-April, international oil prices have fallen by more than 13%. May 5, the international oil prices fell to around 45 US dollars a barrel, back to the end of November last year, the level of production before the release.

CICC Energy researcher Guo Zhaohui said the current market for OPEC meeting is expected to pessimistic. Although the early Saudi oil and other oil producers will extend the terms of the agreement, but the market is expected to cut the size of investors may shrink. In the last two weeks, the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures speculative fund net positions fell by 16%.

Recent US disclosure of the data show that shale oil production activity, but also exacerbated the market oversight of crude oil concerns. US oil service company Baker Hughes released data show that as of 5 week, the number of US oil active drilling has increased for 16 weeks, refresh the April 2015 high since. In addition, the US crude oil production and crude oil inventories also reached a record high.

International energy research firm An Xunsi China analysis, the current price adjustment cycle, Libya two oil field to restart, the market is expected to oil supply is still excess, if the current crude oil prices, the current round of steam and diesel prices down about 245 Yuan, it is likely to hit the largest decline in the year.

This year, China has gone through eight rounds of refined oil price cycle, which three times raised, three times down, twice stranded, steam, diesel prices were down 65 yuan per ton. The largest decline in the year occurred at 24:00 on March 28, steam, diesel prices were down 230 yuan per ton and 220 yuan.