Reuters survey, with weak data and political concerns to combat confidence, the majority of analysts believe that the US economy grew 20% chance of 20% in the past month has declined.
External expectations of US President Trump’s tax cuts and growth stimulus have diminished. It has been reported that Trump tried to intervene in the investigation of the relationship between the former national security adviser and Russia. Reported that US stocks hit since the beginning of September the largest single-day decline.
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Trump’s political turmoil distracted the attention of Washington policymakers, and the possibility of tax reform and other fiscal policies that spurred the economy were delayed.
According to the latest survey of 100 analysts on May 12-18, US economic growth in the second quarter rebounded to 3.2%. But is expected to show that this may be the best growth rate for the rest of the year 2017, and now the average annual growth rate of the next two years or less than 3%.
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IHS Markit analyst Rebecca Mitchell said, “the first quarter growth downturn, making the US annual economic growth is unlikely to reach 3% of the mark, which requires three consecutive quarters of chain growth rate of more than 5%.
Fifty-three percent of respondents said the US economy had fallen 3 percent in the past month, and 37 percent said the odds were not changed, with only 10 percent saying the chances were higher.
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The general view is from July 2017 to the end of 2018, quarterly economic growth of 2.4-2.5%.
Even if the inflation forecast slightly lower than last month.
The core PCE price index expected in the second quarter of 2018 will not reach the Fed 2% target. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation target.
These forecasts not only highlight the gap between the 3% expected US economic growth and the actual economic performance, but also the challenges that Trump faces.
“We have always believed that the economic growth of 20% in 2017 is unlikely, with weak economic data in the first quarter, and the prospect of stimulating fiscal policy in 2017 seems to have supported the forecast,” said Bank of the West, chief analyst Scott Anderson said.
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The report predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in the second quarter and raise interest rates again in the third quarter, bringing the federal funds rate range to 1.25-1.50%.
When asked what would make the Fed raise again in 2017, the plan was blocked, and some analysts said they thought it might be the stock market crash.
Some people point out that the differences between confidence and official economic data can also cause the Fed to do anything.
But most analysts believe that the core inflation is the main reason for the fall.
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