Price Trend Review
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on May 9th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 124758 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.33%, showing an overall trend of “first rising and then falling, with range oscillation”. The specific phased performance is as follows:
Short term rebound after the holiday
Support for replenishment demand: After the May Day holiday, some downstream enterprises restocked at low prices, coupled with a rebound in market sentiment, resulting in a slight increase in nickel prices.
Macro sentiment improvement: The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged, easing market concerns about aggressive rate hikes and providing short-term support for the metal sector.
Falling back under pressure
Fundamental suppression is evident: Indonesia’s nickel ore supply is tight but nickel iron production capacity remains high, and the global nickel market surplus pattern has not changed, suppressing price rebound.
Weak demand side: The stainless steel industry is cautious in procurement, the growth rate of new energy demand is slowing down, spot transactions are light, and nickel prices are fluctuating and weakening.
Macro level: intensifying overseas policy competition and interest rate differentiation
The implementation of the UK US trade agreement: The Trump administration has reached a new agreement with the UK, retaining the 10% benchmark tariff and eliminating steel and aluminum tariffs, but implementing tiered tariffs on automobile imports, and the risk of trade frictions still exists.
Global central bank policy divergence: The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates, but the Bank of England cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, indicating differences in global monetary policy. The US dollar index is stronger, suppressing nickel prices.
The tariff game between China and the United States: If the United States imposes tariffs on new energy metals in China, it may further affect the flow of nickel trade and requires continuous attention.
Supply side: Indonesian policy disturbance, inventory depletion but surplus remains unchanged
Indonesia’s nickel ore supply is tight: The rainy season in May has affected mining, coupled with the addition of a 1.5% nickel product royalty fee, which has pushed up costs in the short term, but nickel iron prices are still under pressure.
Global inventory changes: LME nickel inventory decreased by 3648 tons per week (to 197670 tons), and overseas spot pressure slightly eased. Domestic nickel inventory in Shanghai decreased by 882 tons per week (to 23426 tons), and the pattern of oversupply has not been reversed.
Demand side: Low demand for stainless steel and insufficient support for new energy
The stainless steel market is weak: On May 9th, the spot price of stainless steel was reported at 13042.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% from the beginning of the month. Steel mills’ profits are under pressure, production schedules have decreased month on month, and nickel demand has been suppressed. Terminal consumption (construction, home appliances) has not shown any improvement, and the market’s willingness to purchase is sluggish.
Weakening demand for new energy: weak growth in orders from ternary precursor enterprises, followed by a decline in nickel sulfate prices, and the driving effect of new energy on nickel prices weakened.
Market forecast: Weakness in downstream demand, high inventory pressure, and macroeconomic uncertainty will hinder the upward trend; Cost support, overseas destocking, bottom support. Long and short positions are intertwined, and it is expected that nickel prices will maintain a range of fluctuations.
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