Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in August
Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in August. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 25, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20793.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95% from the market average price of 20596.67 yuan/ton on August 1.
Basic situation of aluminum ingots in August
On the supply side, with the gradual release of a small amount of replacement capacity, domestic primary aluminum production has achieved a slight increase, and the overall supply pattern remains stable. The downstream demand side is showing a differentiated trend of “rebounding momentum for replenishing inventory but encountering obstacles in spot procurement”: on the one hand, some enterprises have started peak season stocking and reserved inventory in advance to cope with the expected recovery of subsequent orders, driving a slight increase in the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream; On the other hand, due to the rebound in aluminum prices, the shipment volume of end products has once again been under pressure and declined. The willingness of processing material enterprises to purchase spot goods has significantly weakened, and the pace of short-term demand release has been somewhat constrained.
From specific data, the overall operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points month on month last week, reaching 59.5%. The market recovery trend is mild and sustainable. Each sub sector has its own highlights: primary aluminum alloys: the operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage point month on month to 56.6%, and the purchasing volume of primary aluminum by top enterprises significantly increased, providing strong support for industry operation;
Aluminum sheet and strip: Benefiting from the peak season stocking orders of segmented categories such as cans and automotive panels, the operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage point to 65.0%, and the demand side growth momentum is clear;
Aluminum cables: With the acceleration of the power grid construction cycle and the continuous release of terminal delivery demand, the operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points month on month to 62.6%, and the industry’s prosperity steadily rebounded;
Aluminum profiles: showing the characteristics of “differentiated recovery”, with orders in the automotive and photovoltaic fields maintaining an increase, driving the operating rate to rise slightly by 1.0 percentage point to 50.5%. However, the demand for building profiles is still in a sluggish range, dragging down the overall pace of recovery;
Aluminum foil: Driven by the restart of air conditioning foil production lines and the rebound in demand for decorative foil, the operating rate has increased by 0.9 percentage points to 69.3%, becoming a strong category in downstream sub sectors;
Recycled aluminum is facing the dual pressure of “weak demand during the off-season+continuous profit inversion”, coupled with policy shocks forcing some manufacturers to voluntarily reduce production, resulting in a slight decrease in operating rate by 0.1 percentage points to 53.0%, and significant short-term industry operating pressure.
Looking ahead to the future, it is expected that areas with strong demand certainty such as aluminum cables and aluminum strips will continue to rebound in late August; As the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden September and Silver October” approaches, the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles (especially industrial profiles) is expected to be further driven, and the overall recovery pace of the domestic aluminum downstream market may gradually accelerate.
Macro influencing factors in August:
Overseas factors
Impact of US tariff policy: On August 18th, the United States expanded the scope of import tariffs on steel and aluminum, covering aluminum intermediate products, semi-finished products, and structural components. Although China’s exports of aluminum products to the United States accounted for only 6% (June 2025 data), short-term market sentiment was suppressed, and Shanghai aluminum prices fell to around 20500 yuan/ton at one point.
Geopolitical disruptions in supply expectations: On August 25th, Russia suspended its export of aluminum ingots to Italy due to diplomatic events, and aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange rose by 4%, highlighting the impact of international supply chain stability on prices.
Last Friday, the dovish turn ignited the market, and expectations of a September interest rate cut quickly rose, causing the US dollar to plummet.
Future expectations
In the short term, aluminum prices in August are expected to experience strong fluctuations. Expected operating range is 20500-21100 yuan/ton.
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