After the National Day holiday, the acrylic acid market did not show any weakness, but instead emerged with a strong trend of both quantity and price rising. The core feature of the market, the reduction of low prices in the market, is not only a phenomenon, but also a subtle concentration of supply and demand patterns.
Market situation: Strong start, shift focus upwards
As of October 10, 2025, the domestic acrylic acid market has made a strong start. The benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society is 6983.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.23% compared to the beginning of this month (6700.00 yuan/ton). This increase is the result of the resonance of three factors: supply, cost, and mentality.
1. Supply side:
Active reduction in operating rate: Data shows that on October 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylic acid industry dropped to 76.44%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points compared to the previous month. This is not accidental. Some factories have reduced their inventory or stopped for maintenance before the holiday due to considerations of inventory and costs, resulting in a significant tightening of spot supply after the holiday.
Healthy inventory structure: Before the holiday, downstream and traders are cautious in stocking up, and social inventory is not high. After the holiday, facing the current situation of tight supply, the inventory pressure of channels and factories is generally not high, providing a solid foundation for sellers to raise prices.
2. Cost side:
As of October 10th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6588.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to the beginning of this month (6543.25 yuan/ton). Still at a high level. Greatly enhanced the manufacturer’s determination to raise prices. They are no longer willing to engage in price wars, but instead unify market prices by reducing or canceling low-priced offers, which is the fundamental reason for the “reduction of low prices in the market”.
3. Demand side:
Replenishment of rigid demand: downstream industries (such as SAP, resin, lotion, etc.) have not seen explosive growth, but their rigid demand is still stable. There is a necessary need to replenish inventory after the holiday, and this’ hard demand ‘is sufficient to digest the current tight spot resources.
Market mentality shift: The signals of supply tightening and cost support are clearly transmitted to the market, and the mentality of both buyers and sellers changes. The seller has shifted from “actively shipping” to “reluctant to sell and maintain prices”, while the buyer has shifted from “watching and suppressing prices” to “receiving goods on demand” due to concerns about continued price increases or the disappearance of low-priced sources. This change in mentality has further accelerated the clearance of low-priced sources in the market and promoted the overall shift of the delivery center.
Summary: The current “strong operation” of the acrylic acid market is a phased victory under weak reality and strong cost/supply expectations. It more reflects the bottoming out effect of supply side contraction on prices when profits are extremely thin. Traders need to closely monitor the trend of upstream propylene prices, the operating plans of major factories, and the substantial order situation downstream, which will be key signals for determining the next direction of the market.
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