According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, lithium carbonate has recently ended its volatile market and rebounded. On October 21st, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 75016 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.74% compared to the same period last week (October 14th), a month on month increase of 2.93%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.84%. The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 73166 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.81% compared to the same period last week (October 14th), a month on month increase of 2.69%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.15%.
Boosting sentiment in futures market
Last week (October 13-1017), the warehouse receipts for lithium carbonate futures decreased from 42669 lots to 30686 lots, resulting in a destocking of 12000 tons of lithium carbonate, reflecting strong demand in the current market and insufficient downstream stocking.
Explosive demand: dual wheel drive of new energy and energy storage
New energy vehicle demand exceeds expectations: According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.5 million units in September, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and single month sales reached a historic high. The strong demand from end-users is directly transmitted to the upstream industry chain. The delivery cycle of orders from leading battery companies such as CATL and BYD has been extended to 45 days, and the production rate in September remains above 95%. The production of positive electrode material factories continues to rise month on month, forcing the concentrated release of demand for lithium carbonate procurement.
The demand for energy storage has exploded: According to the production scheduling data of domestic battery companies in October, the total output of power, energy storage, and consumer batteries reached 186GWh, an increase of 22.4% compared to the previous month. Among them, the proportion of energy storage battery cell production was as high as 40.3%, and the production lines of top enterprises were operating at full capacity. At the domestic policy level, the “Special Action Plan for the Large scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025-2027)” specifies that the installed capacity will exceed 100 million kilowatts in the next three years, further opening up the consumption space of lithium resources.
Continuously reducing inventory to solidify the price foundation
As of early October, the total inventory of lithium carbonate in China decreased by 2023 tons to 134802 tons month on month, providing solid support for spot prices due to the continuous destocking trend.
The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that lithium carbonate is currently in a short-term strong oscillation under tight balance, but the total inventory of 130000 tons still suppresses the increase, making it difficult to quickly break through the previous high point. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate, and specific market changes still need to be monitored.
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