Cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in January
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on January 15th was 455800 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.36% compared to the cobalt price of 462100 yuan/ton on January 1st. The recovery of cobalt exports in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to an increase in supply expectations in the cobalt market, coupled with a decrease in demand in January, resulting in a volatile drop in cobalt prices.
Supply situation of cobalt market
On December 22, 2025, relevant news from the Democratic Republic of Congo: Tengkefenggulumei Mining officially launched its first shipment sampling under the new export quota system. With the continuous promotion of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo, it is expected that cobalt supply will resume in the future. The global supply of cobalt raw materials is highly concentrated in a few countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has significantly reduced its export quotas and set customs clearance deadlines. The shortage of cobalt supply in the market is difficult to change; However, the planned nickel cobalt projects that can provide supplementary resources are delayed in infrastructure construction, and their production progress is later than expected, making it difficult to effectively fill the supply gap in the cobalt market in the short term; Factors such as the improvement of environmental standards have further constrained the short-term release of production capacity, and the overall shortage of cobalt market remains.
Cobalt market demand trend
Due to the influence of the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, January and February are traditionally the off-season for sales, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises is poor, with many car companies shutting down production. The enthusiasm for purchasing power batteries for new energy vehicles has decreased, and the demand for cobalt in the cobalt market has declined during the off-season for power battery consumption. The latest performance guidelines released by some leading companies in the industry chain show that their business focus is accelerating towards high-end products, such as high nickel cathode materials. In terms of power batteries, which are the most important demand in the cobalt market, the weak demand in the cobalt market has increased the pressure of falling due to the support of rising cobalt prices.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Business Society data analysts believe that the slight decline in cobalt prices in January is mainly due to the long-term expectation of supply recovery in the cobalt market and the result of the current weak demand game. In the future, the supply-demand game is difficult to sustain, and due to logistics delays, the arrival time of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo to China should be concentrated in April. Supply shortage is the main tone of the first quarter, while in terms of demand, downstream stocking before the Spring Festival will usher in a small peak in cobalt market demand. In addition, with the resumption of production by car companies after the holiday, the supply shortage in the cobalt market may erupt in a concentrated manner. Cobalt prices may rebound in late January or experience a small surge in February.
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