1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 149150 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.37% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 15.97%.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 5 times and risen 7 times in the past 12 weeks, with nickel prices rapidly rising recently.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically speaking, at the beginning of 2026, Trump first launched a crackdown on Venezuela and seized resources, and then exerted pressure on Greenland, leading to an increase in risk aversion. The US dollar seized the opportunity to rebound, oil prices fell, stock markets fluctuated, precious metals such as gold and silver retreated, and copper prices fell under pressure. The central bank decisively lowered the refinancing and rediscount interest rates.
On the supply side: Indonesia’s nickel ore quota has been significantly reduced, coupled with the turmoil in the mining areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo, global nickel ore supply is expected to decrease by 20%. LME and domestic exchange inventories continue to decrease, although the absolute level is still at a high level, the outflow trend weakens the price suppression effect. The production of refined nickel is expected to decrease month on month, and the short-term surplus pattern has narrowed under the reduction in production. However, the overall spot supply in the market is still relatively sufficient. In November, China’s refined nickel production was 25800 tons, a decrease of 28.1% compared to the previous month.
In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand for electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Enterprises are buying at low prices, and the “Two Sessions” emphasize the long-term benefits of defense spending. The demand for stainless steel is generally low, and the depletion of social inventory is slow. There may be an increase in supply pressure due to the improvement of steel mill profits. Spot transactions are still cautious, and nickel iron prices have slightly increased recently. In terms of nickel sulfate, downstream ternary production decreased slightly after the end of the peak season reserve period, and there were constraints on the production of new capacity in the medium term. Recently, prices have fallen.
In summary, under the tightening expectations of the mining industry, the bullish sentiment in the nickel iron market is high, and the prices of iron mills and trade nickel iron have risen. The demand for stainless steel terminals is relatively weak during the off-season; Downstream Sanyuan mainly consumes previous inventory, resulting in a month on month decline in production scheduling. Under the rapid rise in nickel prices, the increase in overseas warehouse deliveries has brought inventory pressure. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate strongly.
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