1、 Market Review: Over the past week (November 4-10), the PA66 market has been experiencing weak spot trading, with some mainstream factories lowering their prices. The benchmark price for PA66 has fallen from 19200 yuan/ton to 19133.33 yuan/ton, indicating an increased potential for actual order negotiations in the market. From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 10-90 day cycle is in the median range, and the one-year price position is in the mid low range; The moving average system is intertwined with long and short positions, without clear trend signals, and the short-term market trend shows a fluctuating and weak pattern.
2、 Cost analysis shows that the upstream supply of adiponitrile is sufficient, overall production remains high, and raw material prices fluctuate narrowly. There is a certain cost floor, but there is a lack of upward momentum. At present, the profit margin of PA66 slicing processing is limited, and some production enterprises still face loss pressure, with a willingness to reduce production and maintain prices. However, the loose pattern of upstream raw materials has not substantially changed, and it is difficult for the cost side to drive the upward breakthrough of PA66 prices.
3、 Supply and demand analysis: On the supply side, the overall operation of PA66 plants in China remains at a moderate level, with sufficient supply of sliced goods in the market and pressure on circulating inventory. Some companies have the intention to stabilize prices, but there is significant competition in the market for shipments, and there is obvious resistance to actively pushing up prices. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as modification, injection molding, and textile airbag silk have limited capacity for production increase. Downstream terminals mostly insist on on-demand procurement and on-demand procurement, with weak willingness to replenish inventory on a large scale. They only rely on basic needs to support the bottom and lack the release of incremental orders. Under the game of supply and demand, the market lacks upward driving force, and the market maintains a volatile and wait-and-see trend.
4、 Short term forecast: The short-term PA66 spot market may continue to fluctuate weakly. The fundamentals of loose raw materials and abundant spot supply are difficult to reverse quickly, and the conditions for a significant price increase are not yet met; However, currently in the mid to low range of the year, the expected reduction in production caused by corporate losses provides some support for the downward space, and there is limited room for further decline. The mainstream operating range is expected to be 18800-19400 yuan/ton, with a focus on the release of downstream autumn and winter terminal orders and factory equipment maintenance dynamics.
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