In early November, the domestic PC market experienced a downturn, with spot prices of various brands falling. As of November 11th, the PC mixed benchmark price is around 14783.33 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -1.22% compared to the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: Since November, the operating rate of domestic PC aggregation enterprises has remained relatively narrow. The overall industry load rate is close to 81%. At present, the average weekly output is less than 70000 tons, and the shipping speed of the polymerization plant is average. The domestic equipment remained stable in the first ten days, and the overall supply impact of load fluctuations was limited. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is sideways.
In terms of raw materials: Since the beginning of November, the domestic bisphenol A market has been fluctuating, with an overall decline. Bisphenol A was pushed to a temporary high at the end of last month. With the increase of supply and weak demand, the focus of spot prices is under pressure and shifting downwards. On the upstream side of the industrial chain, the victory of the Democratic Party in the midterm elections earlier this month has somewhat suppressed the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. International crude oil prices plummeted at high levels, and the geopolitical risk premium quickly dissipated, causing phenol and acetone to fall accordingly. Looking at it now, the bearish guidance for bisphenol A is significant, and there may still be room for further decline in the future. Overall, the support for PC cost value has weakened.
In terms of demand: As we enter November, there is no significant increase in the purchasing situation of PC downstream factories. The load position of terminal enterprises continues to operate at a low level, and the demand for sheet metal shells is average. The driving effect of Double 11 e-commerce consumption still needs to be observed. Buyers’ acceptance of high priced goods has further decreased, while merchants tend to follow the market and profit from selling goods to recoup funds. On exchange trading tends towards weak demand, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and buyers are cautious in stocking up. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In early November, the domestic PC market weakened. The center of gravity of upstream bisphenol A prices has shifted downward and is dominated by negative factors; Limited load fluctuations in domestic PC aggregation plants; On site trading is mainly based on weak demand, and large-scale receiving and stocking operations are rare. At present, the supply and demand of PC tend to be broadly balanced. Analysts believe that PC may continue to operate weakly in the short term.
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