As 2017 draws to a close, this week’s sulphur perspective reviews the main downstream demand levels for sulphur in 2017.
2017 1-November sulphur imports 10.31 million tons, domestic sulphur production 5.27 million tons, the 2017 annual port net stock is 210,000 tons (the port flow inventory at the beginning of 2017 to reduce the bottom of November 2017 flow inventory), so 2017 years of sulphur apparent demand in 15.79 million tons.
| Thiourea |
Downstream market demand for 2018 we will focus on the phosphate fertilizer forecast as follows:
Phosphate fertilizer domestic demand in 2017 will not show a significant change in phosphate fertilizer exports this piece, because India’s phosphate fertilizer stock below 500,000 tons, 2018 is phosphate or will become China’s export year. But considering that the 2018 Saudi mining company’s “Waad Al shammal Phosphate Project” 3 million tons of phosphate production capacity will be further released, North Africa, Morocco OCP phosphate fertilizer production will be gradually put into place. The export of phosphate fertilizer to China will be a shock. But the pattern of the export year will not be reversed. Ternary compound fertilizer export policy positive from the price of 20% to 100 yuan/ton will also be to a certain extent, the demand for sulfur. And the supply side structure reform and environmental protection superimposed inventory will still be reflected in the first half of 2018. But the second half of 2018-2019 or will enter replenishment inventory and a new round of capacity stacking cycle. From this level we judge that the ratio of phosphate to sulphur acid will increase further, which is expected to rise from 2017 83.1% to 2018 85%. And the yield of phosphate is expected to increase at least 1 million tons to 19 million tonnes (estimated 18 million tons of pure phosphate fertilizer production in 2018). A net increase in the demand for sulphur in the phosphate fertilizer industry will reach 750,000 tonnes.
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