Since July, Shanghai Aluminum’s disk has shown a big U-shaped trend of first suppression and then rising. After the middle of the year began to worry about the oversupply and the continuous decline of weak consumption in the off-season, the disk ushered in environmental protection and international macro-stimulus, rebounding market Open. It’s just that the rebound is not smooth, the flat downstream consumption and the high social stocks have repeatedly restricted the height of the disk rebound. Compared with the ups and downs of Shanghai Aluminum, Lun Aluminum’s trend is relatively flat. As of August 31, Shanghai Aluminum’s main closing price was 14,890 yuan / ton, a monthly increase of 2.41%; Lun aluminum closed at 2,118 US dollars / ton, a monthly increase of 1.92%.
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The domestic aluminum ingot spot price trend is similar to the futures disk, but the fluctuation range is slightly smaller. The overall price fluctuation range is between 13,800 yuan and 14,700 yuan / ton. The spot price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River non-ferrous metal market rose from 13,389 yuan/ton at the beginning of July to 14,64 million yuan/ton on August 28, an increase of 5.3%.
On the other hand, the price trend of LME spot aluminum in London is relatively weak, and it has been a continuous shock since July. The quoted price as of August 28 was US$2,091/ton, a decrease of 1.92%.
Aluminum and aluminum exports increased by a large margin to continue the inventory cycle
According to the new data released by the customs, China’s unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports in May were 519,000 tons, up 1.8% from 510,000 tons in June and 18% from 440,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to July, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum was 3.231 million tons, an increase of 13.6% compared with 2.845 million tons in the same period last year. In July, the unwrought aluminum and aluminum imports were 4.5151 million tons, down 0.13% year-on-year and 3.57% quarter-on-quarter. Although the import volume has shown a decreasing trend from the data in recent months, the overall situation in the second half of the year is still higher than that in the first half of the year, and it is expected that the import volume will be on the rise in the fourth quarter.
According to the new statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s primary aluminum production in July was 2.93 million tons, up 3.5% from the previous month and up 9% from the same period last year. Based on this calculation, in July, the average daily aluminum output was 94,500 tons, higher than the 94,000 tons in June. In the first seven months of this year, China’s aluminum output was 19.4 million tons, an increase of 3.0% year-on-year. China’s electrolytic aluminum production has continued to grow positively and has accelerated growth, which is why the market will have oversupply concerns. Seeing that the peak season in the fourth quarter is coming, if the downstream consumption is less than expected, the supply contradiction will be further expanded and the aluminum price will be under pressure.
In the first half of the year, the output of alumina was also on the rise due to the price increase. It was not until June that the output of the upstream bauxite environmental inspector declined. In July, China’s alumina production continued to rise, reaching 5.806 million. Tons, the chain decreased by 58,000 tons, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, and the average daily output was 187,300 tons. From January to July, the cumulative output was 39.185 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. Recently, alumina prices have risen again. Under the premise that large-scale parking of upstream bauxite does not occur, it is expected that the output will continue to grow in the fourth quarter.
Since December last year, the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum and production capacity have increased, but the operating rate has continued to decline. This trend has changed in February this year, and the operating rate and production capacity have started to rise. Until July, due to the blue sky defense war, the environmental protection inspectors were re-added, and the production capacity and operating rate of electrolytic aluminum showed a double decline. The future is about to enter the peak season, and the production capacity and operating rate will maintain a moderate growth trend under the premise of environmental protection.
Since the beginning of this year, Shanghai aluminum stocks have continued to rise, and social inventories have continued to increase, while Lun Aluminum has experienced two upward and downward trends. In May, this situation has changed. Shanghai aluminum stocks and social inventories have seen a continuous decline. This also shows that the aluminum destocking cycle has officially started. As of the third quarter, social inventories have been steadily decreasing for 4 months. , Shanghai aluminum and Lun aluminum stocks are also in a downward trend. The fourth quarter is the peak season for aluminum consumption, and this trend is expected to continue.
The real estate market maintained a steady development, and the production and sales volume of automobiles decreased.
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According to the data released by the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 35.579 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points from January to June. In terms of the ring rate, in July, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 0.43%. Among them, private fixed assets investment was 22.265 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8%.
In terms of industries, the investment in the primary industry was 1.214 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in January-June; the investment in the secondary industry was 13.211 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9%, and the growth rate was increased by 0.1 percentage points. The tertiary industry invested 21.155 trillion yuan, an increase of 6%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.8 percentage points.
In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 4.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from January to June; among them, investment in mining industry increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 3.5 percentage points from January to June; Investment increased by 7.3%, growth rate increased by 0.5%; investment in electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry decreased by 11.6%, and the decrease was expanded by 1.3%.
In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply) increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.6 percentage points from January to June. Among them, the investment in water management industry decreased by 0.7%, from January to June, with a growth of 0.4%; the investment in public facilities management industry increased by 4.3%, and the growth rate dropped by 1.5%; the investment in road transportation industry increased by 10.5%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4%. Investment in the railway transportation industry fell by 8.7%, and the decline narrowed by 1.6 percentage points. Overall, the real estate industry is developing steadily, and infrastructure is still the main driving force.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July, domestic automobile production was 2.0428 million units, down 10.78% from the previous month and down 0.66% year-on-year; sales were 1,889,100 units, down 16.91% from the previous month and down 4.02% from the same period last year. From January to July, the production and sales of automobiles were 16.10 million and 15.9454 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.52% and 4.33%. Compared with the same period of last year, the output growth rate dropped by 1.13 percentage points, and the sales growth rate increased by 0.23 percentage points.
Among them, the total output of passenger cars in July was 1,725,300 units, down 10.64% from the previous month and down 1.90% year-on-year; the total sales were 1,589,500 units, down 15.19% from the previous month and down 5.30% year-on-year. Commercial vehicle production was 317,500 units, down 11.52% from the previous month and up 6.65% year-on-year; sales were 299,600 units, down 25.01% from the previous month and up 3.34% year-on-year. The third quarter is the traditional off-season of automobile production and sales. In addition, Sino-US trade friction has also had a certain impact on its short-term production and sales. It is expected that this situation will improve in the fourth quarter and maintain a good growth throughout the year.
Outlook outlook
Since the second half of the year, the Shanghai aluminum trend has been suppressed first and then increased. The overall situation has remained wide fluctuations between 14,000 and 15,000 yuan/ton. The spot market has basically maintained the same trend. From the market mentality, from the fear of oversupply in the early period, to the rise of external disk and upstream costs, it is the key to affect the trend of Shanghai aluminum plate. At present, the off-season is coming to an end, the downstream demand is still weak, the market turnover is relatively light, and the high upstream price has formed a strong support, and the aluminum price has fallen into a narrow range of high and low. Sino-US trade frictions and foreign macro-organisms such as Alcoa and Rusal are still continuing to fertilize. Although the short-term effects have been weakened, the long-term effects are far-reaching. From the perspective of the supply in the fourth quarter, the production capacity is still being released continuously. The impact of environmental protection peaks and limited production has a limited impact on the overall supply, but it has a greater impact on the demand side such as downstream aluminum and other industries. The traditional manufacturing season is coming soon. After looking at the demand situation this year, the consumption in the fourth quarter will continue to rise. Overall, we still maintain a relatively optimistic long-term expectation. It is expected that the market situation in the fourth quarter will continue to fluctuate stronger in the vicinity of 14,000 yuan/ton.