Price Trend
According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of calcium carbide manufactured in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average price quoted by mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2916.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 1.13%, which was the same as the same period last year. Overall, calcium carbide market fell slightly this week, with the carbide commodity index of 76.42 on August 16.
II. Trend Analysis
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(1) Products:
This week, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell as a whole: Ovidiang’s offer for calcium carbide at weekend was 2950 yuan/ton, which was 50 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Shaanxi Coal Industry’s offer for calcium carbide at this week was 2850 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable; Inner Mongolia China Union’s offer for calcium carbide at weekend was 2850 yuan/ton, which was 50 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Xia Xingping’s quotation for calcium carbide this week is 2950 yuan/ton, and the quotation is stable for the time being.
This weekend, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2800-2900 yuan/ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2850-2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2900 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2800 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.
(2) Industrial chain:
Upstream raw material market: This week, coke ex-factory quotation rose from 1803.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1916.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 6.29%, down 14.10% from the same period last year. Although the price of raw materials in the upstream has risen, compared with last year, the price has fallen considerably, the cost support is insufficient, and the positive impact on the price of calcium carbide is limited.
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Downstream market: PVC ex-factory prices rose slightly this week. The price of PVC rose from 6705.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6767.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.93%, down 5.55% from the same period last year. Although the price of downstream PVC has risen, but the increase is limited. Compared with last year, the price has fallen considerably. The downstream customers have a general enthusiasm for the purchase of calcium carbide. As a whole, the impact of PVC market on the price of calcium carbide this week is limited.
3. Future Market Forecast
After the adjustment in July, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Although the price of raw materials in the upstream has risen, compared with last year, the price has fallen considerably, the cost support is insufficient, and the positive impact on the price of calcium carbide is limited, while the price of PVC in the downstream has risen, but the increase is weak, the decline is larger than that in the previous year, and the downstream customers have a general enthusiasm for the purchase of calcium carbide. Later market forecast that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in mid-August, but the decline is not significant, and the ex-factory price may be maintained at about 2900 yuan/ton.
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