1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fluctuated widely this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 136250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.86% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 5.75%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fallen 3 times and risen 8 times in the past 12 weeks, with nickel prices mainly fluctuating widely recently.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, although the February US CPI data met expectations, the uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts has pushed up crude oil prices, becoming a “new variable” for inflation. As of March 15th, Brent crude oil prices have soared to $98 per barrel, up 23% from early February, directly driving up global energy costs. The US bond market took the lead in responding: the two-year US bond yield hit 3.632%, a new five month high; Federal funds rate futures show that the expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has plummeted from 41 basis points to 32 basis points, and the market has even postponed the next rate cut to September.
Supply side: In February 2026, China’s refined nickel production was 32600 tons, a decrease of 7.45% month on month and 1.65% year-on-year. The estimated refined nickel production in China in March is 39430 tons, an increase of 20.95% month on month and 7.54% year-on-year.
On the demand side: There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with downstream demand maintaining a pace of rigid procurement, and overall spot transactions being sluggish. The overall demand for downstream electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with better demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. In March, the stainless steel plant resumed production, but the current profit of the steel plant is low, and large-scale procurement has not yet begun after the holiday; The high price of MHP provides support for the cost of nickel sulfate, but the weak demand during the off-season is mainly due to fluctuations in nickel sulfate prices.
In summary, the recent increase in macroeconomic uncertainty overseas and the continued disturbance in the mining sector have supported prices due to the accumulation of contradictions in the raw material sector. The demand side has slightly improved, but high inventory still constrains prices. The bottom support is strong, but the continued upward drive needs to be further transmitted to the real end. It is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate strongly.
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