机翻 · 通用领域
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market in China rose at a high level in March, and prices of various brand products fluctuated and increased. As of March 17th, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing offered by Shengyi Society was 8943.33 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase or decrease of 34.22% in price level.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
International oil prices continue to rise at high levels due to transportation disruptions and cancellations of long-term contracts. The ongoing uncertainty in the current US Iran situation has raised concerns among industry players, providing strong support for the upstream of PP in the far end. In terms of propylene, it has followed the trend of upstream consolidation, coupled with the concentrated implementation of enterprise equipment maintenance, some equipment has reduced load operation, and the effective supply in the market has significantly decreased, highlighting the tight pattern of spot resources. At the same time, the arrival of propane at ports has decreased synchronously, resulting in high cargo prices, while the overall focus of spot prices remains unchanged. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials are positive, providing strong support for PP costs.
Supply side:
Since March, the maintenance of domestic PP enterprises has been slightly higher than the restart, and the overall operating rate has been reduced. As of the time of writing, the overall load level of the domestic industry has decreased by about 4% to 70%. Zhejiang Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical and other enterprises have implemented maintenance plans. The current weekly average total production is about 720000 tons, and the inventory position is close to 940000 tons. The on-site supply is generally abundant. Overall, the supply side’s support for spot prices is still acceptable.
In terms of demand:
Affected by high spot prices, the overall trading atmosphere in the downstream market of the industry in March was cautious. In the first ten days, some chasing orders were basically released, and the number of warehouse building operations decreased. At present, the market tends to be on-demand, with orders mainly fulfilled through refinery oversold contracts and scattered small orders. Some terminal small and micro enterprises have reduced production and stopped production due to high cost pressures, and the buyer camp has returned to calmness. The demand side generally supports PP.
Future forecast
In March, the domestic PP market prices in China rose at a high level. Fundamentally speaking, the industry load has been reduced, and the import of goods to ports has decreased. However, with a large base production capacity, inventory is currently accumulating at a high level. At the same time, the high cost pressure suppresses the demand of some small factories, and the comprehensive support of upstream raw materials on the cost side of PP remains strong. Therefore, the current PP market may still be primarily guided by cost, and it is recommended to closely monitor fluctuations in the crude oil market.
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