According to the monitoring data of the business community, on September 20, the domestic methanol port in East China was 2710 yuan/ton, down 2.74% from the previous working day and 13.97% year on year. On September 20, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell back in shock. The main contract MA2301 closed at 2660 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, down 35 yuan/ton, or 3.24%, compared with the closing of the previous trading day.

The international oil price fluctuated widely, the higher coal price supported the methanol production cost, and the methanol market rose broadly in the early stage. In terms of spot goods, the domestic methanol market as a whole has a fair turnover. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory of production enterprises, and they are willing to support the price. Traders and downstream enterprises are mainly wait-and-see. At the same time, the early production enterprises’ equipment maintenance has resumed normal operation, the supply has increased, the early rise has been consumed, and the shock is the main reason.

In the short term, the domestic methanol market is dominated by high volatility.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the figure above that the domestic hydrochloric acid price was adjusted at a low level this week, with the average market price of 153.33 yuan/ton. A year-on-year drop of 50.00%. On September 19, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 40.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 70.74% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26), and up 124.42% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride was consolidated at a low level, with a price of 2071.25 yuan/ton, up 16.07% year on year; The market price of ammonium chloride was adjusted at a low level, with a price of 975.00 yuan/ton. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is weakened.

Future market forecast

In late September, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly in a narrow range. The recent low level of upstream liquid chlorine market has been consolidated, and the cost support is insufficient. The low level of downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream purchase intention is general. The analysts of the business association believe that hydrochloric acid has declined slightly in recent shocks.

Since August, the domestic bisphenol A market has been on the rise, and this week, the broad upward trend of bisphenol A is obvious. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic market offer of bisphenol A was 13250 yuan/ton on September 9, and the market offer rose to 13912 yuan/ton on September 16, up 5% in the week.

Quotation of bisphenol A in domestic mainstream market:

Region, quotation, weekly rise and fall

East China., 13900., 850

Shandong, 13050, 800

The cost is strongly supported, and the upstream dual raw material phenol/acetone continues to rise. The domestic phenol market has recovered rapidly. By the end of the weekend, the phenol market in East China had risen to 10600 yuan/ton through negotiation. In East China, it had risen by about 600 yuan/ton in the week. Other mainstream phenol trading regions also followed suit. According to the monitoring of the business community, the national phenol market offered 10112 yuan/ton on September 13, and 10700 yuan/ton on September 16, up 5.81% in the week. The phenol market supply is still tight next week, and the port inventory will be supplemented when arriving in Hong Kong on the way next week. However, with the approaching of the National Day holiday, it is necessary to pay attention to the pre holiday stock situation. Bisphenol A continues to rise, and the supply of raw materials is tight or ahead of schedule, while other terminals have limited acceptance of high priced phenol, so it is difficult to avoid resistance. The business community expects that the phenol market in East China will be strong at a high level. Although the increase of raw material acetone was less than that of phenol, the factory raised the listing price slightly, and the market as a whole showed an upward trend. On September 10, the average offer of acetone nationwide was 5312 yuan/ton. On September 16, the average offer of acetone nationwide rose to 5512 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.62% in the week. It is expected that short-term acetone will continue to operate steadily.

The downstream epoxy resin and PC end fluctuated upward. Although the arrangement was affected by the support of the cost, the activity of the industry chain negotiation increased from top to bottom, and the market negotiation price showed an upward trend. As shown in the figure above, the upstream and downstream products have all risen to varying degrees. The market holders have a positive attitude, and the products with tight supply are reluctant to sell. The overall performance of the industry chain after the festival is good, and the market confidence is sufficient.

From the perspective of the business agency, the domestic bisphenol A market is still in a tense state in the near future. There is no production and marketing pressure on the factory side. The offer is firm. Some factories mainly supply contract users, with no shipping pressure. Moreover, the rising trend of dual raw materials is strong. The downstream terminal just needs strong support. The business agency expects to continue to pay attention to the trading situation on the market next week, and is expected to continue to explore the rise.

Acetic anhydride market temporarily stabilized on September 15

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic anhydride was temporarily stable on September 15, and the acetic anhydride market was stabilizing. On September 15, the price of acetic anhydride was 6000 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 6000 yuan/ton on the previous trading day. Recently, the price of acetic acid has been adjusted weakly, the price of methanol has been raised strongly, and the cost of acetic anhydride has become weak and stable.

Key points of analysis

The price of acetic acid fell in shock, the price of methanol was adjusted strongly, the cost of acetic anhydride raw materials was weak and stable, acetic anhydride enterprises started to recover, the supply of acetic anhydride was stable, the price of acetic anhydride was temporarily stable, the demand side, the sales of acetic anhydride was poor, downstream just needed to purchase, the customer’s willingness to purchase was general, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride remained weak.

Future market forecast

The demand for cost stabilization is general, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride is still weakened. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will be weak and stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business cooperatives, the average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in the domestic market was 8940 yuan/ton on September 4, and 9900 yuan/ton on September 14. The price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid has risen 10.74% in the past ten days.

According to the bulk data list of business cooperatives, the average market price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 9200 yuan/ton on September 4 and 9600 yuan/ton on September 14, respectively. The price of wet process phosphoric acid has risen by 4.35% in the past ten days.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid has continued to rise in recent ten days. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus is stronger, the price is rising, and the phosphoric acid cost support is good. Driven by the rising trend of raw materials, the phosphoric acid market has warmed up, and enterprises have raised prices one after another. As of September 14, the domestic market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid was about 9900 yuan/ton. The ex factory quotation of 85 content thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is 9500-10000 yuan/ton, that in Yunnan is 9500 yuan/ton, that in Hubei is 9600 yuan/ton, and that in Nanjing is 9600 yuan/ton.

Phosphorus ore as raw material. The overall market situation of domestic medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore continues to operate stably. The supply of phosphorus ore is still tight. The supply side continues to provide some support to the market. The low commencement of downstream phosphorus fertilizer has a certain impact on the mentality of the phosphorus ore market. The phosphorus ore market is in an overall situation of consolidation. As of September 14, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is near 1030-1150 yuan/ton, There is also a gap between the price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is near 850-980 yuan/ton, and the market price of 32% grade phosphate ore is near 1200 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard is mild, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand.

Raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has continued to rise recently. Stock up before the Mid Autumn Festival, market trading is more active, enterprises go smoothly, and prices rise along the trend. Some manufacturers suspend quotation before the festival. After the festival, the price of yellow phosphorus is still rising. As of September 14, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus was about 36000-37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 35000-36000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has continued to rise in the near future, and the phosphoric acid market is running well due to the rising cost. The downstream demand increases and the delivery is good. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid market will continue to rise in the short term and continue to rise.