This week, the spot tin market price (9.2-9.9) fluctuated upward. The average price in the domestic market was 179700 yuan/ton last weekend and 186360 yuan/ton this weekend, up 3.71% weekly.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of the K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means falling; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that tin prices continued to weaken after April.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 14 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 36th week of 2022 (9.5-9.9), including 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with growth were nickel (7.49%), neodymium oxide (6.50%) and copper (4.88%). There were three commodities with a month on month decline, and the top three products were titanium concentrate (- 0.95%), cobalt (- 0.61%) and magnesium (- 0.39%). This week’s average increase / decrease was 1.64%.

Futures market situation this week

Variety., closing price., compared with the same period of last week., inventory (ton)., compared with last week’s inventory change (ton)

Shanghai tin, 184960 yuan/ton,+7580 yuan/ton, 2149.,+357

London tin., 21345 US dollars / ton, + 225 US dollars / ton, 4715 US dollars, + 55

In terms of futures market, the overall strength of Lunxi this week, the price remained high and volatile, rising about 2.6% weekly. The trend of Shanghai Tin is similar to that of Lunxi this week, with high price volatility as the main trend, rising about 4% this week. In terms of inventory, the inventory rose significantly this week.

The main range of the spot market this week is 181000-187000 yuan / ton. The price fluctuates at a high level. The trend basically follows the fluctuation of Shanghai tin. After the price surged in the first three trading days, the price fell at the weekend. As the Mid Autumn Festival holiday approaches, the futures market is cautious, and most of the funds have left the market. Fundamentally speaking, the manufacturer’s quotation is generally stable this week, the premium of major manufacturers’ quotation is declining, and the commencement is generally stable. The domestic tin output increased significantly in August, the recent profits of import sources were obvious, the import sources increased significantly, the market quotation of import goods increased, and the domestic tin ingot supply was relatively loose as a whole. There is no obvious change in downstream demand in the near future, consumption is slightly weak, the willingness to stock up before the holiday is generally low, the downstream still maintains on-demand procurement, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. From a comprehensive perspective, the tin market is still weak in both supply and demand, and the downstream demand is weak. It is hard to support the tin price. It is expected that the rising momentum of tin price is insufficient, and it is expected that the tin price is likely to bear more pressure in the future market.

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rebounded slightly on the 6th, with the spot price of 61766.67 yuan / ton, up 1.46% from the previous day, down 11.67% from the beginning of the year, and down 11.5% year-on-year.

Recently, copper prices have rebounded slightly. Oil prices continued to strengthen, with London copper rising 1.62% overnight. The people’s Bank of China announced the RRR reduction and continued to provide policy support, while the decline of copper stocks and the soaring energy prices limited supply. In August, the domestic high-temperature weather caused power shortage, impacted the copper smelting industry, and caused a reduction in production. The new production capacity in Hubei was not ignited, and the output of Anhui refinery was damaged. The overall electrolytic copper output in August may not be as expected. However, after the high temperature eased, the supply recovered, but the global copper dominant inventory continued to stay at a low level, and the downstream consumption was on demand. The short-term copper price is subject to the suppression of macro sentiment and the influence of supply disturbance factors. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate around 60000 yuan.

Product Name: cryolite

Latest price (September 5): 7675.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the cryolite market in Henan is running smoothly, and the average production price of cryolite is the same as that of the previous working day. On the upstream side, raw materials are tight, fuel costs such as coal and natural gas are high, production pressure of enterprises is high, downstream market entry is followed up as required, enterprise shipments are OK, and supply and demand on the site are relatively balanced, supporting the high price of cryolite.

Future forecast: the short-term cryolite market will remain stable at a high level, and the future market will pay attention to the market supply.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the trading society, on the 2nd, the average price of nickel in the spot market was 166683.33 yuan / ton, down 3.16% from the previous trading day and up 12.08% year-on-year.

Nickel price has a weak trend in recent shocks. The expectation of raising interest rates boosted the US dollar, and LUNI nickel closed down more than 4% overnight. The slowdown of the global economic rhythm led to a sharp drop in metal demand. In August, the output of steel mills with power rationing and maintenance decreased. The weak supply and demand dragged nickel prices down. Domestic nickel production is at the highest level in the past years, and there are many inventory resources. From the perspective of downstream stainless steel, the pessimism in the downstream has recovered, seasonal consumption may improve, and the demand for replenishment just needs to pick up. On August 30, Inner Mongolia issued the notice on canceling the preferential power price policy, which will be implemented from September 1. After the implementation, the electricity price in East Mongolia may increase by 0.02 yuan to about 0.43-0.45 yuan / kWh. In 2022, the output of nickel pig iron and nickel metal of Inner Mongolia nickel iron plant will account for about 4% of the country, with limited impact. With loose supply and weak demand, the nickel price still maintains a wide fluctuation trend in the short term.

In August, the styrene butadiene rubber market fell as a whole. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 31, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was 11775 yuan / ton, down 3.94% from 12258 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In August, the price of raw material butadiene / styrene fell first and then rose. The overall decline, especially the decline of raw material price at the beginning of the month, weakened the cost support of SBR significantly; The commencement of downstream tires remained low in August, and the demand for styrene butadiene rubber was weak. However, starting from the middle and late August, on the one hand, the raw material price rebounded after hitting the bottom, and on the other hand, the supply and demand of styrene butadiene rubber was in a weak balance. Under this background, the market of styrene butadiene rubber in the middle and late August showed a stable and narrow fluctuation trend.

The prices of butadiene and styrene fell first and then rose. The overall price fell, and the cost was weakly supported by styrene butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 31, the price of butadiene was 8331 yuan / ton, down 10.96% from 9356 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the month was 7792 yuan / ton. As of July 31, the price of styrene was 9075 yuan / ton, down 5.67% from 9620 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the month was 8390 yuan / ton.

In August, the natural rubber market fluctuated downward, and the impact on styrene butadiene rubber was empty. As of August 31, the price was 11990 yuan / ton, down 2.04% from 12240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In August, during the peak season of domestic and foreign rubber production, the pressure on the supply side of natural rubber increased, the price of Thai glue continued to drop, and the output of China’s domestic area was normal. Although the impact of Hainan public health incident and heavy rain, the rubber production continued to increase.

In August, the start-up of domestic tire enterprises maintained a low and narrow range. The start-up of all steel tires was around 65%, and the start-up of semi steel tires was 50-60%. In addition, the rubber products industry was slow to ship due to the off-season, and the overall start-up was not significantly improved. The demand for SBR was weakly supported.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the supply and demand side is stable but weak, but the price of raw materials has rebounded from the bottom. If the cost side continues to increase in the later period, the price of SBR will rise accordingly.