Trade name: monoammonium phosphate

Latest price: 3625 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of monoammonium phosphate was stable on April 14, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Today, the price of raw sulfur increased steadily, and the market of raw phosphate rock was stable. There are few new orders in the market, and the downstream purchases on demand. Today, the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Henan is about 3550 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Anhui is about 3700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Yunnan is about 3500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

Future forecast: the price of monoammonium phosphate will be stable in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6600.75 yuan / ton on April 12 and 6588.25 yuan / ton on April 13, with a single day decline of 0.19%, down 1.64% compared with April 1.

On the 13th, the domestic propane market continued to be weak. Most of Shandong propane market remained stable, and some made up for the decline, with little fluctuation. Although the rise in international crude oil prices has brought some support to the market, the terminal demand is weak, the market trading atmosphere is weak and difficult to change, and the price has been reduced one after another. It is expected that the price of propane market may still fall in the short term.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (April 12): 3476.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business society, the average price of sulfur in East China today increased by 0.48% compared with yesterday. The inventory of domestic refineries is low, the inventory of manufacturers is not under pressure, the downstream sulfuric acid market supports well, the demand for sulfur is stable, the port supply is tight, the price market is strong, which supports the high quotation of domestic refineries, the market of ammonium phosphate is weak and stable, the demand for fertilizer is gradually weakened in spring, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand, Individual enterprises adjusted the quotation according to their own shipment, and the price of liquid sulfur in refineries in Shandong increased by 50 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: arrange the range of short-term sulfur market, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

Monitoring shows that on April 11, Shanghai Rubber continued to rebound, closing at 13705 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12880 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the quotation on the previous trading day, with a year-on-year decrease of about 0.92%.

Key points of analysis: supply side: the recent continuous rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affects the output of raw materials. At present, the global output is still at a low ebb. It is reported that the cutting is carried out in Southeast Asia, northeast Thailand and Vietnam, the rain in Yunnan production area of China is blocked, the rubber cutting is blocked in the first ten days, the trial cutting in individual areas in the southeast of Hainan production area, and the glue output is scarce. As of May 2023, the demand for raw materials and semi-finished tires in Shandong Province was significantly lower than that in the previous peak period, which was – 43.9% of the total number of enterprises in China. However, as of May 2024, the demand for raw materials and semi-finished tires in the sample area was largely affected by the epidemic, which was more than – 13.5% of the total number of enterprises in China. The operating rate of China’s all steel tire sample enterprises was 54.17%, with a month on month ratio of – 6.48% and a year-on-year ratio of – 24.22%. The operating rate will rise slightly after the Qingming holiday; Secondly, export demand fell, domestic shipments were blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products increased. In terms of inventory: the inventory in Qingdao is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume. The arrival volume of natural rubber decreases, the inventory continues to decline slightly, the rhythm of accumulating inventory slows down, and the inventory elimination of rubber inventory has begun, but the process is slow. The total import and export of natural rubber was basically the same as that of Vietnam in January and March last year; A total of 270000 tons were exported to China, up 0.4% from 269000 tons last year.

Future forecast: at present, Shanghai and Jilin are greatly affected by public health events, and the production and marketing pressure of the two auto markets may be great in April; The prevention and control of the national situation is strict, and the obstruction of logistics and transportation has become a national problem. The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a weak trend of shock in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline continued to operate stably this week. On April 1, the price in Shandong was 12500-12800 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 12800 yuan / ton; On April 8, the price in Shandong was 12500-12800 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 12800 yuan / ton. The price was flat compared with last week and increased by 4.1% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: during the festival, pure benzene Market negotiations were light. Affected by public health events in Shandong, logistics was blocked, individual enterprises’ shipments were poor, and the price difference between regions was widened. In the middle of the week, the price of styrene rose due to the unexpected shutdown of a downstream styrene unit, and pure benzene rose with it. However, the overall atmosphere of pure benzene Market in Shandong is poor, with high-end prices falling and the price difference narrowing. On Friday (April 8), the price of pure benzene was 8500-8650 yuan / ton (the average price was 8580 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 50 yuan / ton, or 0.59%, and 28.06% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid rose this week. On Friday (April 8), the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2416.67 yuan / ton, up 4.32% from last week and 8.21% from the same period last year.

During the week, Shandong Jinling and Dongying Huatai aniline plants increased slightly, one 100000 t / a plant in Nanhua was shut down for maintenance, and the supply end was tightened. Affected by public health events in the downstream, the demand is weak and only needs to be purchased. Under the game between supply and demand, aniline was temporarily stable during the week, and the operators were cautious.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost and pure benzene, under the situation of Russia and Ukraine, the price of crude oil is still high; The maintenance of pure benzene plant is centralized, and the supply side is expected to tighten; Under the influence of public health events, the operating rate of pure benzene and main downstream units decreased. Under the influence of domestic public health events, the mentality of pure benzene market is poor and the short-term trend is weak.

In terms of nitric acid, the market of nitric acid delivery has improved compared with the previous period, and the price of nitric acid is expected to strengthen.

However, the supply side of the downstream market is not good and the demand side is not good. Pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand, and there is no lack of possibility of decline of aniline.