Latest price (June 6):6382 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on June 6, the average price of domestic LNG market was 6382 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from the previous day and up 76.46% year-on-year. On the first day after the festival, the logistics recovered, and the domestic LNG market fluctuated in a narrow range. However, the demand in the off-season weakened, the downstream users’ receiving capacity was general, the domestic liquid price was mainly adjusted, and the actual transaction was mainly negotiated.

It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be weak in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 2, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 8588 yuan / ton, down 0.05% from the previous trading day and up 23.69% year-on-year. The main contract of domestic staple fiber futures closed at 8246 in the morning, down 1.46% from the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the settlement price today was 8250. Short fiber raw material futures closed down today, with PTA main force down 0.53% and ethylene glycol main force down 0.24%.

The international oil price corrected overnight and continued its decline today. US oil fell nearly 2%, hitting a four-day low of US $113 / barrel. As the sixth round of EU sanctions against Russia failed to pass as scheduled, and the Biden government said it still hopes to contact Saudi Arabia, the market will take this as a concrete measure for the government to actively reduce energy costs. Pay special attention to the results of the OPEC ministerial meeting this evening. The decline of oil price dragged down the polyester industry chain, and PTA, ethylene glycol and staple fiber all fell today. PTA unit load decreased and continued to be removed from the warehouse. Recently, the price continued to be adjusted at a high level and the downstream was cautious. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol have improved recently, but the surplus expectation is difficult to change. Short fiber supply is expected to increase in the near future. The startup rate of pure polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets declined, and the downstream maintained the focus on just needed procurement. The enterprise’s shipping psychology was dominant, and the transaction was negotiated on a preferential basis. Affected by the epidemic blockade and economic downturn, the demand recovery of terminal fabric garment industry is difficult in the short term.

It is expected that the short-term polyester staple fiber will show a strong trend of shock under the support of strong cost.

On June 2, the rare earth index was 850 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 15.59% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 213.65% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is rising. The prices of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series are rising. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is rising by 2000 yuan / ton to 952500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal is rising by 2500 yuan / ton to 1157500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is rising by 125000 yuan / ton to 967500 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is rising by 125000 yuan / ton, and the price of neodymium metal is rising by 10000 yuan / ton to 1195000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide fell by 20000 yuan / ton to 2.57 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy fell by 20000 yuan / ton to 2.655 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal fell by 30000 yuan / ton to 3.35 million yuan / ton, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market rose, the recent procurement was general, the price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market fell, the price of terbium series was temporarily stable, the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, Myanmar banned exports, and it is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will rise slightly in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the business club, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. As of the 1st day, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 8300 yuan / ton. The on-site spot supply was normal, and the sales were OK.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rises slightly, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the market is general, the recent downstream demand changes little, the upstream adjacent benzene price rises, the plasticizer market is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the market is normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rises slightly. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has not changed much. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the market is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market price is mainly higher. The downstream plasticizer industry has a slight rise, and the actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has risen, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of the neighboring France source negotiation in East China is 8200-8400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of the naphthalene method source negotiation is 8000-8100 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8200-8400 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality in the phthalic anhydride market still exists, and the downstream purchases are mainly on demand. Recently, the adjacent benzene market has risen slightly, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of the business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium on May 1 was 3770 yuan / ton, and the average market price of powdered monoammonium on May 31 was 4266 yuan / ton. The price of monoammonium phosphate rose by 13.17% this month.

According to the data in the bulk list of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3676 yuan / ton on May 1, and 4200 yuan / ton on May 31. The price of diammonium phosphate rose by 14.29% this month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the price of monoammonium phosphate continued the trend of last month, and the price rose step by step. As the raw sulfur and phosphate rock rose continuously, the cost pressure increased, and monoammonium phosphate rose again. The downstream inquiry has increased, the on-site supply is tight, and there is no sales pressure for the time being. Most manufacturers suspended quotation and received a few orders. As of May 31, the mainstream factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan is about 4500 yuan / ton, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 4500 yuan / ton, and the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei is about 4450 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

The price of diammonium phosphate rose at a high level this month, and the trend continued to rise. After the May Day holiday, the price of raw materials began to rise continuously. The market of diammonium phosphate rose steadily and consolidated at a high level. At present, the domestic supply of diammonium is in short supply, and the focus has shifted to the export market, with a strong bullish atmosphere in the future. At present, there is still support to be issued. Most manufacturers have suspended quotation and a few have received orders. As of May 31, the market quotation of 64% diammonium in Guizhou was about 4700 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction was negotiated.

The domestic market of raw phosphorus ore rose this month. This month, the domestic phosphate ore market experienced several price adjustments, and the market focus continued to concentrate upward. The main reason to support the upward trend of phosphate ore market is that at present, the domestic phosphate ore supply continues to be tight. Many large factories mainly use medium and high-end phosphate ore for their own use. Some mining enterprises mainly send orders from core and old customers, and there is basically no surplus goods for export. Most enterprises have suspended their quotation. There are few goods circulating in the field, and the tight supply situation has not been eased. Therefore, the market price has repeatedly risen.

The price of raw sulfur fell slightly after rising this month. After the May Day holiday, the maintenance of domestic refineries was concentrated, the output was limited, and the inventory of enterprises was low. After the May Day holiday, the sulfuric acid market rose slightly, and the demand for sulfur was stable and positive. In addition, the high sulfur price in the port supported the sulfur price, and the quotation of refineries was sorted up. In the later stage, the sulfur price in the port fell back, the market atmosphere weakened, and the quotations of individual refineries were reduced. However, the overall market performance was in short supply, and the downstream demand was good.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analyst of the business society, the supply of raw ammonium phosphate rock is tight and the cost remains high. Ammonium phosphate Market is dominated by high price, and the cost support is good. The downstream just needs to purchase, take the goods carefully, and the transaction is OK. Under the condition of tight supply in the site, it is expected that the price of ammonium phosphate will continue to be high in the short term.