1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene fell after rising this week. On January 14, the price of pure benzene was 7500-7650 yuan / ton (the average price was 7530 yuan / ton), and on Friday (January 21), the price of pure benzene was 7600-7750 yuan / ton (the average price was 7680 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 150 yuan / ton, or 1.99%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 70.67%.
2、 Analysis and comment
Crude oil rose continuously, with strong cost support, related commodities rose, market negotiation enthusiasm was good, and pure benzene prices rose. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton, which also gave positive support to the market. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream pre festival goods preparation is basically over, and the buying is reduced; The operators sold at a profit, the selling price increased, and the high price of pure benzene fell.
In terms of external trading, the Asian pure benzene range fluctuated in the external trading this week. On Thursday (January 20), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $998 / T, up US $2 / T or 0.2% month on month (MOM) compared with January 13; The reference import price in East China was US $1030 / T, up US $10 / T or 0.98% month on month on January 13.
In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market shows a pattern of weak supply and strong demand, and the prospect of market demand for crude oil is better. Superimposed on the tightening of geographical situation, the international oil price has continued to rise this week. Near the weekend, investors took profits and oil prices fell. As of January 21, Brent rose $1.83 / barrel, or 2.13%; WTI rose $1.32/barrel, or 1.57%.
Downstream: styrene: styrene rose first and then fell this week. The price of styrene was 8680 yuan / ton on January 14 and 8740 yuan / ton on January 21, an increase of 0.69% over last week and 24.9% over the same period last year. The weekly average operating rate of the domestic styrene industry this week was 82.51%, the same as last week. In terms of port inventory, East China port inventory entered the rhythm of accumulation this week, and styrene processing profit suffered a small loss.
Aniline: aniline stabilized after rising this week. On January 14, the price in Shandong was 11000-11220 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11200-11300 yuan / ton; On January 21, the price in Shandong was 11600-11820 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12000 yuan / ton.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the situation of weak supply and strong demand for crude oil continues, and the demand outlook is generally good. The short-term trend of crude oil is strong, which provides good support for relevant bulk commodities. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
Downstream: downstream main product styrene: crude oil is strong, but the subsequent deposit correction may be possible. Pure benzene has been corrected at present, and the bottom of styrene cost side support has been reduced. In addition, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the stock sentiment of downstream factories has weakened, and the styrene market is expected to be in a weak consolidation state next week.
Approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream goods preparation is basically over, and the pure benzene negotiation turns light. Crude oil is expected to continue high-level operation and support pure benzene well. Overall, it is expected that the horizontal consolidation of pure benzene will be dominated next week, and there may be a downward trend, but the decline is limited. Pay attention to the downstream market, plant dynamics, domestic pure benzene plant dynamics, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.
