Commodity index: on September 28, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 101.56, up 1.2 points from yesterday, down 6.83% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 20.45% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

It is found that the price of chemical raw materials has risen under the recent national “double control” policy. Under the comprehensive influence of factors such as the substantial increase of raw material cost and production cost, the reduction of spot inventory and national day order arrangement, the market of water treatment products has risen rapidly recently. The manufacturer’s quotation is cautious, the pricing and delivery are subject to the price of the day, and oral reservation is not accepted, but the order arrangement is subject to payment. As a result, there are many shocking enterprise notices in the circle of friends, as shown in the figure:

As shown in the figure, according to the data of business society, the mainstream market of polyaluminium chloride in China has risen sharply recently. On September 14, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride was 1762 yuan / ton, which rose slightly to about 1878 yuan / ton on September 28, an increase of 6.62% in half a month.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society shows that the downstream demand is good this month, and the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rises. The quotation rises from 293.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 299.80 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.21%. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market price of downstream ammonium chloride decreased slightly, which had a negative impact on hydrochloric acid. The downstream ammonium chloride market fell slightly recently. The quotation fell from 1170.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1115.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 55.00 yuan / ton, down 4.70%, up 79.84% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream white carbon black market rose slightly, and the quotation increased from 5100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 5300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 200.00 yuan / ton, or 3.92%, up 12.77% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market rose and fell, and the purchase enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid was general.

LNG is used in the production process. The mainstream market price of liquefied natural gas in China rose sharply from the 14th to the 16th in the middle of the year, about 10%. Then the market fluctuated and decreased slightly. In the half month of the 28th, the mainstream price in the domestic market rose from 5833 yuan / ton to about 6290 yuan / ton, an increase of about 7.83%. It is reported that the liquid plant has strong sentiment of supporting the price. Under the circumstances of strict dual control of energy consumption and reduced demand of downstream gas consuming enterprises this month, the price of LNG remains volatile and the market is relatively strong. In the future, it is expected that the domestic liquid price will generally operate stably in the short term, but it is inevitable to reduce the price and arrange the inventory near the National Day holiday.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the current market of water treatment industry is rising sharply, the procurement pressure of downstream enterprises is increasing, and the driving force is weakening before the national day. In the context of rising raw material costs, polyaluminium chloride market still has upward support in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride increased slightly this week. As of September 26, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation remained at 13533.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.50% over the average price of 13333.33 yuan / ton on September 20, and an increase of 15.01% over the same period last month.

On September 26, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 127.49, up 0.32 points from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 149.10% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The start-up of domestic benzene maleic anhydride market increased this week. International crude oil rose and domestic chemical prices rose; The operating rate of downstream unsaturated resin decreased slightly, the resin market rose, the resin market just needed to be purchased, and the operation was cautious under power restriction conditions. As of the 26th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 13000 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 13000 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 13500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Hebei was about 13500 yuan / ton, and the solid anhydride in South China was about 13800 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene fell continuously this week, and the price fell broadly. The average price of pure benzene was 8480 yuan / ton on September 19 and 7760 yuan / ton on September 26, down 720 yuan / ton or 8.49% from last week. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong fell sharply, at 8860 yuan / ton on the 20th and 8080 yuan / ton on the 26th, down 780 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane rose. As of September 26, the price in Shandong was 5540 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 38th week of 2021 (9.20-9.24), there are 51 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 19 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 19.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were organosilicon DMC (39.68%), phosphoric acid (23.45%) and acetic acid (22.30%). A total of 20 commodities decreased month on month, and 8 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were dichloromethane (- 22.64%), chloroform (- 9.57%) and butadiene (- 7.83%). Both rose or fell by 2.39% this week.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market supply is limited, and some factories are pre sold to the National Day holiday. There is no inventory pressure in the factories, and the supply and demand is good. However, recently, due to the impact of film restrictions in Jiangsu, the resin starts or decreases, and the market wait-and-see mood increases. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

Product Name: n-butanol

Latest price (September 26): 12833 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business agency, on September 26, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fell sharply. The average ex factory price of n-butanol was 10333 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was reduced by 2067 yuan / ton, a decrease of 16.67%. The downstream plant of n-butanol started at low load, and the demand for n-butanol decreased significantly. Near the national day, the downstream goods preparation performance was flat. The n-butanol plant sold goods at a profit, and the ex factory price of n-butanol was greatly reduced.

Future forecast: before the festival, the downstream goods preparation of n-butanol is mainly cautious, and it is unlikely to increase the operating rate of downstream devices before the festival. It is expected that the n-butanol market will mainly maintain stable operation in the days before the festival.

On September 24, the domestic cobalt price rose

According to the data monitoring of business agency, on September 24, the domestic cobalt market continued to rise, the cobalt price rose, and the domestic cobalt market rose. On September 24, the cobalt price was 381200.00 yuan / ton, up 0.69% from 378600.00 yuan / ton on the previous trading day (September 23).

Summary of cobalt Market

In the international market, the international cobalt price has risen continuously; In the domestic market, during the Mid Autumn Festival, spot trading in the domestic cobalt Market stagnated. Affected by the dual control of energy, some enterprises are expected to stop production and resume work after the national day, which exacerbated the shortage of electrolytic cobalt supply and raised the quotation of electrolytic cobalt. Overall, the rising momentum of cobalt market is strong, which stimulates the rise of domestic cobalt market.

Over the past 21 years, the price of ternary materials has increased by 52%, the price of negative materials has increased by 70%, the price of electrolyte has increased by 151%, and the cost of raw materials for lithium batteries has increased sharply. Since the beginning of the year, the cost of battery has increased by 17000 yuan! The price of the whole vehicle has increased by at least 5%. At present, new energy vehicle enterprises are expanding market share, and most of them will not choose to increase the price to affect sales. At present, vehicle enterprises mostly lower the price of battery enterprises, and basically do not accept the battery price increase to ensure their own profits, with little impact. Since this year, the cost pressure of battery enterprises has increased sharply, and it is difficult to conduct downward. Battery enterprises have poor acceptance of high priced raw materials, downstream enterprises have great resistance to the rise of cobalt price, and there is great downward pressure on cobalt market.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that the recent rise in international cobalt prices, the decline in domestic cobalt Market Construction and the insufficient supply of cobalt market have stimulated the rise of cobalt prices. However, in the long run, downstream enterprises have low acceptance of high price cobalt, and the rising support of cobalt market is insufficient, and the downward pressure remains. It is expected that the shock will stabilize after the slight rise of cobalt price in the future.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of TDI market temporarily operated stably on September 23. The average market price in East China was 14300 yuan / ton, down 3.21% month on month.

On September 23, the distribution market in East China was temporarily stable, and the distribution market price remained stable. The price of domestic goods was about 13600-14000 yuan / ton, and the price of Shanghai goods was about 13900-14500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. There is no inventory pressure due to the equipment maintenance of many TDI factories in China. Under the dual control policy of energy consumption, the downstream demand is general, the transaction at the downstream of the terminal is not smooth, the downstream follows up rationally, just needs to buy, the trading atmosphere on the site is light, the operator’s mentality is mainly wait-and-see, the market outlook is sorted and operated, and the downstream follow-up is concerned.