In September, affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption, the domestic supply of dichloromethane was tight and the market price rose sharply. In the middle of the month, the market speculation mentality was strong, and dichloromethane soared to the highest offer of 8000 yuan / ton. Later, with the follow-up of downstream demand, the market speculation mentality ended, and the market price of dichloromethane gradually returned to 5000 ~ 6000 yuan / ton. Overall, due to tight supply, the price at the end of the month still increased by about 1000 yuan / ton compared with the end of the month.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 4192 yuan / ton at the beginning of September and 5177 yuan / ton at the end of September; During the month, the price high point was 6725 yuan / ton on the 20th and the price low point was 4055 yuan / ton on the 10th. Overall, the end of the month increased by 23.49% compared with the beginning of the month.

The price of raw methanol rose and the cost side was supported. According to the business agency, as of September 30, the price of methanol was 3605 yuan / ton, up 37.86% from 2615 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine of tank car in Shandong is about 1600 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: dichloromethane analysts of business society believe that the “double control” policy will continue to be implemented in the short term, the start-up of methane chloride plant will remain low, and the supply of dichloromethane is relatively tight, but affected by weak demand, the profit giving sales price of enterprises will return to some extent; Overall, the price of dichloromethane will remain above 5000 yuan / ton in the short term.

Product Name: propylene glycol

Latest price (September 30): 21100 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on September 30, the overall domestic propylene glycol market was stable and consolidated. The average ex factory price of propylene glycol was 21100 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of the previous working day. On the 30th, the last working day before the national day, the domestic propylene glycol field maintained a stable consolidation operation as a whole, the downstream pre festival goods preparation was basically completed, and the spot supply in the field remained tight.

Future forecast: it is reported that some propylene glycol units in Shandong have maintenance plans after the festival, and the supply of propylene glycol after the festival will continue to be tight. It is expected that the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly operate strongly after the festival, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of downstream demand.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market rose slightly, the price of domestic praseodymium neodymium rare earth market rose and fell, and the price of heavy rare earth market rose slightly. According to the rare earth sector index of business society, the rare earth index was 600 points on September 29, the same as yesterday, down 40.00% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), It is 121.40% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

It can be clearly seen from the rare earth index chart that the recent domestic rare earth price has increased steadily and slightly, the recent mainstream commodity price in the rare earth market is mainly stable, and the rare earth market has increased slightly. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, praseodymium oxide and neodymium oxide increased, and the price of praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased slightly. By the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 627500 yuan / ton, with a monthly price increase of 3.04%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 640000 yuan / ton, up 2.4% in September; The price of metal praseodymium was 860000 yuan / ton, and the monthly price trend increased by 5.52%; The price of neodymium was 775000 yuan / ton, with a monthly price increase of 1.31%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 600000 yuan / ton, down 0.58%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 738500 yuan / ton, with a price decline of 1.2%. The price of light rare earths in China rose. On the whole, the market was stable.

The trend of some products in the domestic rare earth market is rising, the supply and demand structure has little change, and the demand for high-end magnetic materials is normal. Recently, China’s rare earth quota on the supply side may be steadily increased, and the supply rigidity is optimized. In addition, with the implementation of the new energy efficiency standards, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners for domestic household appliances, the penetration rate of Nd-Fe-B continues to increase, and the demand side is relatively normal. The sales of new energy vehicles are normal, the demand for rare earth is at a high level, and the price of rare earth oxide is rising. When there is no lock order, the rare earth metal factory mainly focuses on waiting and watching, and the procurement is more cautious. At the same time, the national environmental protection inspector is still continuing, the peak season of traditional demand for rare earth is coming, superimposing the launch expectations of relevant policies in the rare earth industry, supply and demand are expected to resonate with policies, and rare earth prices may rise steadily. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are OK. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “China Automobile Association”) released the latest production and sales data. In August, 307000 new energy passenger vehicles were sold in China, with a month on month increase of 19.8% and a year-on-year increase of 193%. The cumulative sales from January to August were 1.704 million. Under the influence of “double control”, the supply in some regions has declined, the recent downstream demand is OK, and some prices in the light rare earth market have increased slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China has increased. By the end of the month, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.705 million yuan / ton, and the monthly price trend has increased by 4.84%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.64 million yuan / ton, the price trend increased by 3.12%, the price of metal dysprosium was 3.445 million yuan / ton, and the monthly price increased by 3.77%. The price of domestic terbium series continued to rise, the price of domestic terbium oxide was 8.825 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 11.1 million yuan / ton. The transaction in the domestic rare earth market is normal, and the leading magnetic material factory purchases actively, which makes the domestic heavy rare earth market price rise slightly. In the early stage, affected by the rainy season and epidemic situation, the rare earth supply in Myanmar has been disturbed. Recently, the war in Myanmar has started again, and the supply disturbance has been further aggravated. The global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market. In addition, due to the impact of power rationing in some regions, the domestic supply is tight, and the production reduction risk of separation enterprises using Myanmar mines in the south is increased. Affected by this, the domestic heavy rare earth market price continues to rise.

National policy support. In early July, Vice Minister Wang Jiangping of the Ministry of industry and information technology pointed out that the regulations on the administration of rare earth will be introduced as soon as possible. We expect that the regulations will be introduced with a high probability within this year, and national legislation will regulate the high-quality development of the rare earth industry. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the accelerated promulgation of the regulations on the administration of rare earth will, on the one hand, make the industry have laws to abide by and promote the rare earth industry chain to embark on the road of virtuous circle development; On the other hand, it reflects China’s determination to strictly control the supply order of rare earth and support the price of rare earth as an important strategic resource. The overall demand for rare earth products is OK, the downstream demand is normal in the near future, and the price of domestic rare earth market is OK.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply starts normally. Recently, the on-site transactions have increased and the goods are actively prepared. The peak season of traditional demand for rare earth is coming. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, predicts that there is room for the market price of rare earth in the later stage.

According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on September 30 was 39.10, up 0.87 points from yesterday, down 60.90% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 43.33% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in September 2021

Figure 3: Weekly K-line chart of natural rubber mainstream price in September 2021

According to the data monitoring of business agency, in September 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber continued to fluctuate and rise. On the 1st, the mainstream price was about 12637.5 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the mainstream price was about 13815 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.33%.

From the perspective of new rubber output: rainfall in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, according to Thai media reports on September 29, typhoon “electric bus” has caused the flood disaster once in many years in 27 provinces of Thailand after landing in Thailand on September 23-27, and the price of local raw rubber has increased; In China, the rise of latex market continues to increase the pressure on rubber processing plants in natural rubber producing areas.

In terms of demand, in terms of tires, foreign epidemic situation, rising freight rates, export difficulties, soaring raw material prices, chip shortage, decline in automobile sales and other factors lead to rising costs, difficulties in domestic and foreign sales and high pressure on finished product inventory, resulting in tire enterprises controlling output, continuous decline in operating rate, and naturally affected raw material procurement demand; Affected by cost pressure, many tire enterprises have issued tire price increase notices. In terms of automobiles, according to foreign media reports, according to the latest data of autoforecast solutions (hereinafter referred to as AFS), as of September 26, due to the shortage of chips, the cumulative production reduction in the global automobile market had reached 8.934 million, an increase of about 576000 over the previous week. Among them, the cumulative production reduction in China’s automobile market was 1.814 million, accounting for 20.3% of the total production reduction. AFS predicts that the loss of global automobile production may exceed 10 million this year.

In terms of inventory, the inventory of natural rubber in the previous period was 243281 tons (+ 4110 tons) as of September 30, the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 201700 tons (+ 1900 tons), and the inventory for domestic delivery increased; Energy Inventory in the previous period: 33795 tons (+ 324 tons) of No. 20 glue and 25796 tons (+ 1128 tons) of futures warehouse receipts. In Qingdao, the social inventory of natural rubber continues to be at a new low, and the trend remains unchanged. The amount of rubber delayed to port in August is not prominent at present.

In terms of import and export: Tires: affected by the global epidemic and the continuous rise of freight, the problem of shipping will continue to affect China’s tire export. The Middle East, America and Europe are the regions where domestic tires are intensively exported. The continuous rise of shipping charges has increased the export pressure of domestic tire enterprises; The increase in freight rates and the severe delay in the arrival of natural rubber in Hong Kong can be seen from the data of exports from Thailand to China: the data show that Thailand exported a total of 2.158 million tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber) in the first August, a year-on-year increase of 27%; In the first August, the total export of natural rubber and mixed rubber was 2.975 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%; A total of 1.56 million tons were exported to China, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. Rubber: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7, China imported 529000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2021, down 24.3% from 699000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to August 2021, China imported 4.348 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 3.5% from 4.508 million tons in the same period in 2020.

Figure 4: tire enterprises intensively issue price increase notices

Hot spots in the industry: affected by the increasing tire manufacturing costs caused by the continuous rise of raw material prices, the sharp rise of freight and the decline of enterprise production capacity caused by power and production restrictions, many tire enterprises intensively issued tire price increase notices. For example, the price of all steel and semi steel of Linglong tire will be increased by 3% – 5% from October 1; From October 11, the price of all brands of commercial vehicle tires will be increased by 2%; Since October, the prices of all brand products of Zhengdao tire have increased by 3% – 5%; The price of all products of the whole brand of East China tire has increased by 3% – 5% since October; Since October 10, the sales price of Shandong Yongsheng rubber to the company’s tbr products has risen by 3% – 5%. The following figure shows the price increase notice of several enterprises

Figure 5: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2021

In the future, the situation of “golden nine and silver ten” in 2021 is special. The policy of “double control” is heating up, the impact of production and power restriction, the sharp rise of petrochemical raw materials and the comprehensive impact of many factors on fundamentals. The typhoon in Thailand leads to floods and capital speculation, with a large rise in a single day, and the market is frequent and prominent. It is expected that in the future, during the National Day holiday, the manufacturers will have a holiday, and the operating rate will decline. After preparing goods before the festival, the procurement demand will weaken, and the trend is weak during this period; After the national day, if the extreme weather in Thailand continues, the possibility of Tianjiao’s extremely short-term strength exists; On the whole, the supply and demand fundamentals of natural rubber have not changed much, and the imported rubber delayed to Hong Kong in August will also be concentrated in Hong Kong in October. Under the circumstances of strict policy requirements and no significant improvement in automobile consumption, it is difficult for tire enterprises to have obvious signs of recovery. In addition to the excessive market reaction of capital to sudden news, there is a great possibility of weak natural rubber shock in the middle and late part of next month; In the medium term, the annual situation is relatively special. The power restriction policy and depressed automobile sales will lead to the low operating rate of tire enterprises, Limited procurement demand, and the possibility of weak natural rubber. It will be discussed separately when cutting is stopped in China.

The three quarters of 2021 have passed, and the epoxy resin market has twists and turns. The three quarters show an “n” trend, rising first, then falling and then rising, which is basically consistent with the three quarters. The changes of epoxy resin in the first three quarters mainly fluctuate with the cost side. Specifically:

The first stage: the epoxy resin soared to a new high and exceeded 40000 yuan under the double kill of supply and demand

Affected by the significant upward trend of raw material bisphenol A and driven by high cost, epoxy resin showed a unilateral upward trend in the first quarter. According to the monitoring data of business society, the low offer of liquid resin in East China was 21750 yuan / ton at the beginning of January, pushed up to 34000 yuan / ton at the end of March, and the liquid epoxy resin in East China soared to 40500 yuan / ton as of April 19, an increase of 86.2%. In the first half of the year, the price of liquid resin has reached the peak in recent three years. The factories have closed their offers one after another. The factory order schedule is relatively full until next month, and the solid resin is also rising. The solid resin around Huangshan is also increasing significantly. The offer of solid resin ranges from 33500-34000 yuan / ton, with a large increase.

Epoxy resin has been rising wildly. On the one hand, orders from the downstream market continue, and there is no pressure on factory shipments. On the other hand, stimulated by mutual benefits, the upstream raw material bisphenol A has reached the “sky high price”, and the cost support is strong. Affected by the epidemic in the first half of 2020, the trend of bisphenol A and epoxy resin is at a relatively low level. As can be seen from the above figure, entering 2021, Driven by the tight supply in the domestic market, the impact of extremely cold weather abroad in the first quarter, and the rise of peripheral bulk commodities, bisphenol A and epoxy resin continued to brush new highs in the new year. Bisphenol A was offered to 30000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 250%. Another important raw material epichlorohydrin is also chasing high, which further stimulates the epoxy resin to continue to chase high.

The acceptance of high prices in the downstream is acceptable. At present, although the downstream is miserable, there are also production cuts, but the overall balance is still maintained. Overseas orders continue and domestic wind power projects are hot, with good short-term demand. However, in the long run, if the market continues to rise, the cost cannot be “transferred” to the downstream, and more downstream have to choose alternatives. According to the business agency, by mid April, the operating rate of liquid resin was about 80%. The factory mainly delivered early orders, and the price of new orders was still rising; Due to the influence of environmental protection inspectors of solid epoxy resin, the operating rate remains low, and the negotiation of new single price is cautious.

The second stage: the demand decreased sharply in the second quarter, the cost could not be “transferred” to the downstream, and the epoxy resin plummeted.

At the beginning of the second quarter, the market continued the previous trend and kept reaching new highs. Due to the large increase of epoxy resin, it was difficult for the downstream to digest high priced raw materials. From the market in late April to the end of June, the price of domestic liquid epoxy resin E-51 began to continuously adjust downward, mainly because of the substantial reduction of downstream demand and the sharp rise of early price, resulting in the negative profit of some downstream customers, In addition, there are a few substitutes in some terminal industries, and the downstream demand for epoxy resin is gradually reduced. From May to June, the demand for downstream wind power generation decreased sharply, the electronics and coating industry also showed a downward trend, the overall demand decreased significantly, the manufacturer’s inventory increased, the new single offer made profits and suppressed the price trend of raw material bisphenol A, and the market price was in a downward channel.

The third stage: the raw material end rose repeatedly, driven by high cost, and the epoxy resin stopped falling and rose again.

From July to August, epoxy resin is mainly affected by raw material bisphenol A. In August, the average price of bisphenol A exceeded 27000 yuan / ton, the second monthly high in the year. Driven by cost, epoxy resin entered the upward channel again. In particular, every Wednesday, the auction of bisphenol A by a major petrochemical enterprise in East China has attracted the attention of market operators. The auction price directly affects the trend of bisphenol A. in addition, due to the tight supply of bisphenol A inside and outside the plate and the delay of imported shipments, high-level operation will become the mainstream trend of bisphenol A. Therefore, driven by high cost, the epoxy resin market continues to rise.

In September, bisphenol A plunged sharply and plummeted. In early September, epoxy resin fell in a narrow range, but then another important raw material, cyclochlorine, soared due to the influence of double control, and epoxy resin continued to maintain an upward trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the offer of East China liquid resin market was 35233 yuan / ton on September 10, and that of East China liquid epoxy resin market was 37700 yuan / ton on September 27, an increase of 7%. So far, the offer of East China liquid epoxy resin market is 37500-38000 yuan / ton, barrel ex factory price, and the offer of Huangshan solid resin market is 29000-30000 yuan / ton, The sharp rise of epichlorohydrin is the main reason driving the rise of epoxy resin. On the one hand, the cost support is strong, on the other hand, due to the influence of “dual control”, the start-up of Jiangsu unit has fallen sharply, and the supply is expected to decrease significantly. According to the bulk list data of business society, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin was 20333.33 yuan / ton on September 17, up 28.15% compared with Monday’s price, 43.87% compared with August 17, and 55.22% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. In addition, the price of raw material propylene has increased, the price of raw material glycerol is high, and the cost has a positive boost to the market. Under the influence of “double control”, the load of some units is reduced and shut down, the overall operating rate of the market is declining, and the shortage of goods is increasing. In addition, the “double festival” is approaching, there is a demand for goods in the downstream, and the market quotation is greatly increased. As the price rises to a high level, the downstream just needs to follow up passively.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the trend of epoxy resin and bisphenol A is consistent from January to August, and the correlation is large. The correlation between epoxy resin and cyclochlorine is large in September. The trend of epoxy resin in the three quarters is greatly affected by the raw material end. Where will the epoxy resin market go in the fourth quarter?

1. Overall capacity increase in the second half of the year

In the first half of 2021, the domestic epoxy resin production capacity increased by 113000 T / A, all of which are liquid epoxy resin units. By the end of June, the total capacity of epoxy resin in China had reached 2.35 million tons / year. In the second half of 2021, a total of 515000 tons of epoxy resin is planned to be added. If the plant is on schedule, the industrial capacity will increase by more than 20% in the second half of the year. In addition, some units have capacity expansion plans.

2. Double control affects the reduction of start-up load

Under the influence of dual control, the supply and demand of epoxy resin are unbalanced at different stages. The major domestic liquid resin factories are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and these regions are also greatly affected. The 200000 ton capacity units in Jiangsu are shut down, and the restart time is to be determined. There are also production restrictions in other regions. In October, Nantong Xingchen and Changchun chemical industry plan to shut down for maintenance, increasing the volatility of the market.

3. Driven by policy, the downstream wind power industry may improve in the fourth quarter

Although epoxy resin continues to rise under the pressure of cost, the downstream transfer situation is not optimistic. The goods preparation near the National Day is general, the recognition of high prices is not high, and the high transaction situation is not optimistic. However, driven by the dual control policy, the wind power industry is expected to gradually revive in the fourth quarter. Although it can not be compared with the peak period, it will be better than September, which will form a good support for the epoxy resin market.

In conclusion, the epoxy resin Market in 2021 mainly changes with the cost of raw materials, mainly from the cost changes caused by the price fluctuations of bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin. The epoxy resin profit in the first three quarters was good in April, but the high cost downstream was difficult to digest, so we had to find more substitutes or reduce the demand. From the perspective of business society, the downstream wind power and other industries are still worth looking forward to in the fourth quarter. The demand side will continue to improve, and the downstream electronic and electrical appliances, coatings and materials will also increase. The demand remains high. At present, the price of epoxy resin has fallen, and the trading volume has not been driven during the national day. Business society expects that there will still be a wave of favorable market in the fourth quarter and pays attention to the changes in the cost side of raw materials.