The three quarters of 2021 have passed, and the epoxy resin market has twists and turns. The three quarters show an “n” trend, rising first, then falling and then rising, which is basically consistent with the three quarters. The changes of epoxy resin in the first three quarters mainly fluctuate with the cost side. Specifically:
The first stage: the epoxy resin soared to a new high and exceeded 40000 yuan under the double kill of supply and demand
Affected by the significant upward trend of raw material bisphenol A and driven by high cost, epoxy resin showed a unilateral upward trend in the first quarter. According to the monitoring data of business society, the low offer of liquid resin in East China was 21750 yuan / ton at the beginning of January, pushed up to 34000 yuan / ton at the end of March, and the liquid epoxy resin in East China soared to 40500 yuan / ton as of April 19, an increase of 86.2%. In the first half of the year, the price of liquid resin has reached the peak in recent three years. The factories have closed their offers one after another. The factory order schedule is relatively full until next month, and the solid resin is also rising. The solid resin around Huangshan is also increasing significantly. The offer of solid resin ranges from 33500-34000 yuan / ton, with a large increase.
Epoxy resin has been rising wildly. On the one hand, orders from the downstream market continue, and there is no pressure on factory shipments. On the other hand, stimulated by mutual benefits, the upstream raw material bisphenol A has reached the “sky high price”, and the cost support is strong. Affected by the epidemic in the first half of 2020, the trend of bisphenol A and epoxy resin is at a relatively low level. As can be seen from the above figure, entering 2021, Driven by the tight supply in the domestic market, the impact of extremely cold weather abroad in the first quarter, and the rise of peripheral bulk commodities, bisphenol A and epoxy resin continued to brush new highs in the new year. Bisphenol A was offered to 30000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 250%. Another important raw material epichlorohydrin is also chasing high, which further stimulates the epoxy resin to continue to chase high.
The acceptance of high prices in the downstream is acceptable. At present, although the downstream is miserable, there are also production cuts, but the overall balance is still maintained. Overseas orders continue and domestic wind power projects are hot, with good short-term demand. However, in the long run, if the market continues to rise, the cost cannot be “transferred” to the downstream, and more downstream have to choose alternatives. According to the business agency, by mid April, the operating rate of liquid resin was about 80%. The factory mainly delivered early orders, and the price of new orders was still rising; Due to the influence of environmental protection inspectors of solid epoxy resin, the operating rate remains low, and the negotiation of new single price is cautious.
The second stage: the demand decreased sharply in the second quarter, the cost could not be “transferred” to the downstream, and the epoxy resin plummeted.
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At the beginning of the second quarter, the market continued the previous trend and kept reaching new highs. Due to the large increase of epoxy resin, it was difficult for the downstream to digest high priced raw materials. From the market in late April to the end of June, the price of domestic liquid epoxy resin E-51 began to continuously adjust downward, mainly because of the substantial reduction of downstream demand and the sharp rise of early price, resulting in the negative profit of some downstream customers, In addition, there are a few substitutes in some terminal industries, and the downstream demand for epoxy resin is gradually reduced. From May to June, the demand for downstream wind power generation decreased sharply, the electronics and coating industry also showed a downward trend, the overall demand decreased significantly, the manufacturer’s inventory increased, the new single offer made profits and suppressed the price trend of raw material bisphenol A, and the market price was in a downward channel.
The third stage: the raw material end rose repeatedly, driven by high cost, and the epoxy resin stopped falling and rose again.
From July to August, epoxy resin is mainly affected by raw material bisphenol A. In August, the average price of bisphenol A exceeded 27000 yuan / ton, the second monthly high in the year. Driven by cost, epoxy resin entered the upward channel again. In particular, every Wednesday, the auction of bisphenol A by a major petrochemical enterprise in East China has attracted the attention of market operators. The auction price directly affects the trend of bisphenol A. in addition, due to the tight supply of bisphenol A inside and outside the plate and the delay of imported shipments, high-level operation will become the mainstream trend of bisphenol A. Therefore, driven by high cost, the epoxy resin market continues to rise.
In September, bisphenol A plunged sharply and plummeted. In early September, epoxy resin fell in a narrow range, but then another important raw material, cyclochlorine, soared due to the influence of double control, and epoxy resin continued to maintain an upward trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the offer of East China liquid resin market was 35233 yuan / ton on September 10, and that of East China liquid epoxy resin market was 37700 yuan / ton on September 27, an increase of 7%. So far, the offer of East China liquid epoxy resin market is 37500-38000 yuan / ton, barrel ex factory price, and the offer of Huangshan solid resin market is 29000-30000 yuan / ton, The sharp rise of epichlorohydrin is the main reason driving the rise of epoxy resin. On the one hand, the cost support is strong, on the other hand, due to the influence of “dual control”, the start-up of Jiangsu unit has fallen sharply, and the supply is expected to decrease significantly. According to the bulk list data of business society, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin was 20333.33 yuan / ton on September 17, up 28.15% compared with Monday’s price, 43.87% compared with August 17, and 55.22% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. In addition, the price of raw material propylene has increased, the price of raw material glycerol is high, and the cost has a positive boost to the market. Under the influence of “double control”, the load of some units is reduced and shut down, the overall operating rate of the market is declining, and the shortage of goods is increasing. In addition, the “double festival” is approaching, there is a demand for goods in the downstream, and the market quotation is greatly increased. As the price rises to a high level, the downstream just needs to follow up passively.
According to the monitoring data of business society, the trend of epoxy resin and bisphenol A is consistent from January to August, and the correlation is large. The correlation between epoxy resin and cyclochlorine is large in September. The trend of epoxy resin in the three quarters is greatly affected by the raw material end. Where will the epoxy resin market go in the fourth quarter?
1. Overall capacity increase in the second half of the year
In the first half of 2021, the domestic epoxy resin production capacity increased by 113000 T / A, all of which are liquid epoxy resin units. By the end of June, the total capacity of epoxy resin in China had reached 2.35 million tons / year. In the second half of 2021, a total of 515000 tons of epoxy resin is planned to be added. If the plant is on schedule, the industrial capacity will increase by more than 20% in the second half of the year. In addition, some units have capacity expansion plans.
2. Double control affects the reduction of start-up load
Under the influence of dual control, the supply and demand of epoxy resin are unbalanced at different stages. The major domestic liquid resin factories are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and these regions are also greatly affected. The 200000 ton capacity units in Jiangsu are shut down, and the restart time is to be determined. There are also production restrictions in other regions. In October, Nantong Xingchen and Changchun chemical industry plan to shut down for maintenance, increasing the volatility of the market.
3. Driven by policy, the downstream wind power industry may improve in the fourth quarter
Although epoxy resin continues to rise under the pressure of cost, the downstream transfer situation is not optimistic. The goods preparation near the National Day is general, the recognition of high prices is not high, and the high transaction situation is not optimistic. However, driven by the dual control policy, the wind power industry is expected to gradually revive in the fourth quarter. Although it can not be compared with the peak period, it will be better than September, which will form a good support for the epoxy resin market.
In conclusion, the epoxy resin Market in 2021 mainly changes with the cost of raw materials, mainly from the cost changes caused by the price fluctuations of bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin. The epoxy resin profit in the first three quarters was good in April, but the high cost downstream was difficult to digest, so we had to find more substitutes or reduce the demand. From the perspective of business society, the downstream wind power and other industries are still worth looking forward to in the fourth quarter. The demand side will continue to improve, and the downstream electronic and electrical appliances, coatings and materials will also increase. The demand remains high. At present, the price of epoxy resin has fallen, and the trading volume has not been driven during the national day. Business society expects that there will still be a wave of favorable market in the fourth quarter and pays attention to the changes in the cost side of raw materials.
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