According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on September 30 was 39.10, up 0.87 points from yesterday, down 60.90% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 43.33% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
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Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in September 2021
Figure 3: Weekly K-line chart of natural rubber mainstream price in September 2021
According to the data monitoring of business agency, in September 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber continued to fluctuate and rise. On the 1st, the mainstream price was about 12637.5 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the mainstream price was about 13815 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.33%.
From the perspective of new rubber output: rainfall in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, according to Thai media reports on September 29, typhoon “electric bus” has caused the flood disaster once in many years in 27 provinces of Thailand after landing in Thailand on September 23-27, and the price of local raw rubber has increased; In China, the rise of latex market continues to increase the pressure on rubber processing plants in natural rubber producing areas.
In terms of demand, in terms of tires, foreign epidemic situation, rising freight rates, export difficulties, soaring raw material prices, chip shortage, decline in automobile sales and other factors lead to rising costs, difficulties in domestic and foreign sales and high pressure on finished product inventory, resulting in tire enterprises controlling output, continuous decline in operating rate, and naturally affected raw material procurement demand; Affected by cost pressure, many tire enterprises have issued tire price increase notices. In terms of automobiles, according to foreign media reports, according to the latest data of autoforecast solutions (hereinafter referred to as AFS), as of September 26, due to the shortage of chips, the cumulative production reduction in the global automobile market had reached 8.934 million, an increase of about 576000 over the previous week. Among them, the cumulative production reduction in China’s automobile market was 1.814 million, accounting for 20.3% of the total production reduction. AFS predicts that the loss of global automobile production may exceed 10 million this year.
In terms of inventory, the inventory of natural rubber in the previous period was 243281 tons (+ 4110 tons) as of September 30, the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 201700 tons (+ 1900 tons), and the inventory for domestic delivery increased; Energy Inventory in the previous period: 33795 tons (+ 324 tons) of No. 20 glue and 25796 tons (+ 1128 tons) of futures warehouse receipts. In Qingdao, the social inventory of natural rubber continues to be at a new low, and the trend remains unchanged. The amount of rubber delayed to port in August is not prominent at present.
In terms of import and export: Tires: affected by the global epidemic and the continuous rise of freight, the problem of shipping will continue to affect China’s tire export. The Middle East, America and Europe are the regions where domestic tires are intensively exported. The continuous rise of shipping charges has increased the export pressure of domestic tire enterprises; The increase in freight rates and the severe delay in the arrival of natural rubber in Hong Kong can be seen from the data of exports from Thailand to China: the data show that Thailand exported a total of 2.158 million tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber) in the first August, a year-on-year increase of 27%; In the first August, the total export of natural rubber and mixed rubber was 2.975 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%; A total of 1.56 million tons were exported to China, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. Rubber: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7, China imported 529000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2021, down 24.3% from 699000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to August 2021, China imported 4.348 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 3.5% from 4.508 million tons in the same period in 2020.
Figure 4: tire enterprises intensively issue price increase notices
Hot spots in the industry: affected by the increasing tire manufacturing costs caused by the continuous rise of raw material prices, the sharp rise of freight and the decline of enterprise production capacity caused by power and production restrictions, many tire enterprises intensively issued tire price increase notices. For example, the price of all steel and semi steel of Linglong tire will be increased by 3% – 5% from October 1; From October 11, the price of all brands of commercial vehicle tires will be increased by 2%; Since October, the prices of all brand products of Zhengdao tire have increased by 3% – 5%; The price of all products of the whole brand of East China tire has increased by 3% – 5% since October; Since October 10, the sales price of Shandong Yongsheng rubber to the company’s tbr products has risen by 3% – 5%. The following figure shows the price increase notice of several enterprises
Figure 5: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2021
In the future, the situation of “golden nine and silver ten” in 2021 is special. The policy of “double control” is heating up, the impact of production and power restriction, the sharp rise of petrochemical raw materials and the comprehensive impact of many factors on fundamentals. The typhoon in Thailand leads to floods and capital speculation, with a large rise in a single day, and the market is frequent and prominent. It is expected that in the future, during the National Day holiday, the manufacturers will have a holiday, and the operating rate will decline. After preparing goods before the festival, the procurement demand will weaken, and the trend is weak during this period; After the national day, if the extreme weather in Thailand continues, the possibility of Tianjiao’s extremely short-term strength exists; On the whole, the supply and demand fundamentals of natural rubber have not changed much, and the imported rubber delayed to Hong Kong in August will also be concentrated in Hong Kong in October. Under the circumstances of strict policy requirements and no significant improvement in automobile consumption, it is difficult for tire enterprises to have obvious signs of recovery. In addition to the excessive market reaction of capital to sudden news, there is a great possibility of weak natural rubber shock in the middle and late part of next month; In the medium term, the annual situation is relatively special. The power restriction policy and depressed automobile sales will lead to the low operating rate of tire enterprises, Limited procurement demand, and the possibility of weak natural rubber. It will be discussed separately when cutting is stopped in China.
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