In September, domestic phenol rose unilaterally and continued to rise this week driven by raw materials. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of phenol in China was 9337 yuan / ton on September 6, 9487 yuan / ton on September 13, an increase of 1.61% in the week. Up to now, the offers of major mainstream markets are as follows: 9480 yuan / ton in East China, 9450 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan, The offer in South China is 9600 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

Trend chart of phenol commodity ex factory price index in East China in 2021

It can be seen from the price trend of phenol in 2021 that at present, phenol is within a reasonable price range, and phenol has been adjusting in the range since the second quarter. In September, domestic phenol factories raised their offers intensively, which increased the confidence of the market. Although the port stock increased, the output of overseas devices decreased in September and the domestic supply is expected to increase. Considering that some export cargo holders are not in a hurry to ship, there is no pressure on the short-term supply side, and most low prices do not increase the market quotation by a narrow margin, in terms of devices, In September, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone units changed little, ranging from 85% to 90%. In September, Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit had a shutdown maintenance plan.

On the raw material side, pure benzene rose sharply today. Last weekend, Shandong even inspected the environmental impact of some units. The downstream bidding significantly pushed up the raw materials. Due to the delay of Hong Kong shipping in East China affected by the typhoon, pure benzene rose sharply today. The sharp rise of raw materials must have a great impact on the mentality of downstream traders in the industrial chain. Phenol holders may be reluctant to sell, and the negotiation is gradually close to the high-end, But the trading volume is insufficient. The downstream bisphenol a market fell significantly. Recently, although the market offer continued to decline under the condition of insufficient supply expectation, today’s offer reached 27000-27100 yuan / ton. Bisphenol A is mostly Petrochemical supporting devices, which has little impact on the phenol Market, phenolic resin and other downstream changes, and the overall demand is stable.

From the perspective of the business community, the rapid rise of pure benzene has exacerbated the wait-and-see mood in the phenol Market. Although the terminal procurement is general, the cargo holders intend to make profit in the morning, the short-term replenishment volume is small, the supply of domestic cargo holders is not pressure, and the cargo holders are still bullish on the market. The business community expects that the phenol market will still have good expectations in the short term and keep a narrow rise expectation, The reference offer in East China is 9500 yuan / ton.

Following the sideways consolidation in the first week of September, the bisphenol a market fell broadly in the second week. In particular, the bidding price of a petrochemical enterprise in Zhonghua East fell to 27400 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton month on month. The negative atmosphere in the market increased, and the offer of the holder followed the downward trend. On the one hand, the purchase of raw materials in downstream factories was mainly contract supply, and other just needed replenishment. On the other hand, the spot resources in the market were still tight, The offer went down to 27400 yuan / ton, the trading entered a stalemate, and the trading in the market was cold. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average offer of East China market was 28160 yuan / ton on September 1, and the offer of East China market fell to 27440 yuan / ton on September 10, with an average decline of 500-600 yuan / ton in major markets. As can be seen from the market trend of bisphenol A in East China in the figure below, bisphenol A did not rise again under the golden nine after running at a high level for half a month, and turned around and fell due to demand. The overall decline since September was 2.14%

In terms of factories, Lihua yiweiyuan and Nantong Xingchen started construction in 80%. Bisphenol A units such as Sinopec Mitsubishi and Changchun chemical are operating at full capacity. In mid September, Changchun chemical plans to overhaul 270000 ton units for 45 days. The spot supply in the market is expected to be reduced. At present, the maintenance supply of units in South Korea and Taiwan is expected to be reduced, and the supply chain in terms of import will also be reduced, At present, the carrier’s willingness to make a substantial profit for shipment is not strong. At present, the production of domestic factories is mainly contract, and the offer is mostly suspended. The guiding price of Lihua yiweiyuan is 27500 yuan / ton.

From the raw material side, the phenol market rose narrowly. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the national market was quoted at 9225 yuan / ton on September 1 and 9487 yuan / ton on September 10, an increase of 2.85%. At present, the mainstream offer in the East China market is 9450 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong and surrounding areas of Yanshan is 9400-9450 yuan / ton, and the offer in the mainstream areas of South China is about 9650 yuan / ton. The short-term holder’s willingness to support the price is still strong and has no intention to transfer profits, but the downstream participation is relatively cautious. The business society expects the high-level consolidation operation of phenol in the short term, and the negotiation reference in East China is 9400-9450 yuan / ton.

Phenol national market trend

On the other hand, acetone, the raw material, has continued its upward trend since September, and the negotiation reference is 6400-6500 yuan / ton. However, in the afternoon of the last working day of the week, the acetone market trading slowed down, and the pressure center of gravity of the cargo holders fell significantly. East China made an offer to 6350 yuan / ton. On the whole, the major markets rose significantly in September. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the acetone market in the mainstream regions of China was quoted at 6350 yuan / ton on September 1, and 6562 yuan / ton on September 11, with an overall increase of 3.52%. So far, the acetone market in East China is quoted at 6350 yuan / ton, that in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding regions is quoted at 6500 yuan / ton, and that in South China is between 6800-6900 yuan / ton.

Acetone market trend in mainstream areas of China

The high level of the downstream liquid epoxy resin market has dropped significantly. Due to poor downstream demand and loose raw materials, the market has declined significantly. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation of liquid resin in East China has been delivered in barrels of 34200-34800 yuan / ton, and the market offer of solid resin in Shandong and Huangshan is 30500 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation. In terms of the industry, on the edge of loss, in the face of difficulties in the downstream transfer of high priced raw materials, the terminal is obviously in conflict, and the market transaction is cold. In addition, the downstream PC won by high priced raw materials, the downstream acceptance is limited, the factory operating rate has decreased significantly, and even some manufacturers have stopped. At present, the operating rate is less than 50%, and there are few orders outside the contract in the market.

From the perspective of business society, the trend of bisphenol a market is weakening. In the short term, bisphenol a market is difficult to have positive support. However, at present, the external price of bisphenol A is high, and the domestic short-term spot supply is still tight. Traders are accompanying with offers. The supply of goods in their hands is limited, and the holders’ willingness to lower their prices is still not great. They will continue to pay attention to the transactions of SINOPEC enterprises next week, The business community expects the BPA market to be weak in the short term.

In the second week of September, due to the favorable cost of methanol, the dimethyl ether market ushered in a sharp rise. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3562.50 yuan / ton on September 1 and 3681.25 yuan / ton on September 9, with an increase of 3.92% during the week and 4.80% compared with August 1.

As of September 9, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% September 9th 4030 yuan / ton

Hebei region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% September 9th 3900 yuan / ton

Henan region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% September 9th 3680-3765 yuan / ton

After experiencing a tepid market for more than a month, the dimethyl ether market finally ushered in a sharp rise in the second week of September. The dimethyl ether Market in Henan increased by nearly 4% during the week, and the quotations of most manufacturers in Henan, the main production area, rose to above 3700 yuan / ton. There were many positive factors in the market this week, which supported the continuous rise of dimethyl ether prices. First, the methanol market rose sharply, and the rise of raw material market brought strong support to dimethyl ether. Followed by the liquefied gas market, civil gas continued to rise during the week, and the price difference between gas and ether gradually opened, which was good for the market mentality. The downstream market entry is more positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the mentality is strong, and the price is pushed up one after another.

In terms of cost methanol market, on September 9, the methanol market in Henan increased sharply, and the on-site trading was good. The bidding transaction of main enterprises in Henan Province was 2750-2760 yuan / ton, and the factory withdrew cash exchange, up 165 yuan / ton compared with Tuesday; Other enterprises offer stable prices and execute orders for shipment; Luoyang market negotiation refers to 2700-2770 yuan / ton of out of tank spot exchange. The negotiated price of methanol market in central Shandong is 2600-2620 yuan / ton and delivered to spot exchange. The price of local methanol factory in central Shandong is stable at 2790-2800 yuan / ton. The factory provides spot exchange, and the transaction is still good.

At present, the rising cost of methanol and liquefied gas civil market has brought strong support to the dimethyl ether Market. The downstream has staged replenishment into the market, with good enthusiasm, smooth shipment of manufacturers, controllable inventory and strong mentality. At present, there are still negative factors in the market. Although it has entered the peak season in September, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, which has significantly restrained the rising market. In general, the rise of dimethyl ether Market is limited, and it is mainly increased in the short term or steadily. Specifically, we still need to pay attention to the change of raw material methanol.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (September 8): 2500 yuan / ton

On September 8, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong increased by 6.67 yuan / ton, or 0.27%, compared with the quotation on September 6, and 46.77% compared with the same period last year. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have increased slightly recently, with strong cost support. From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period. There are maintenance plans in Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, and the daily output of urea has declined. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.

In the future, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is expected to rise slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2550 yuan / ton.

According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on September 5 was 37.14, the same as yesterday, down 62.86% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 36.14% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in the first week of September 2021

Figure 3: Weekly K-line chart of mainstream price of natural rubber in the first week of September 2021

Data monitoring shows that from the end of August to September 5, 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber continued to decrease slightly. It was reported as 12697.5 yuan / ton on Monday and 12525 yuan / ton on Friday, a decrease of 1.36%.

From the perspective of new rubber output: the new rubber in the main natural rubber production area this month is in the peak production season. Due to the comprehensive impact of epidemic situation, rainfall and shipping problems, the rubber import and export volume is not high, and the raw material prices in the domestic and foreign markets fluctuated and fell weekly. The data show that the glue price in Heai, Thailand last Friday was 48.7 baht / kg, down 2.8 baht / kg from the average price of the previous week; The price of cup glue was 44.45 baht / kg, down 2.78 baht / kg month on month. The price of glue in Yunnan is 12100 yuan / ton, and the price of cup glue is 11300 yuan / ton, down 160 yuan / ton and 40 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week; The price of glue in Hainan was 12200 yuan / ton, and the weekly average price was 12320 yuan / ton, down 460 yuan / ton from the previous week.

From the downstream demand: first, from the situation of China’s tire manufacturers, the data statistics show that in the week of September 2, the weekly operating rate of domestic all steel tires was 50.13%, down 5.45% month on month and 24.31% compared with the same period in 2020; The weekly operating rate of semi steel tire was 54.66%, down 3.04% from the previous week and 15.46% from the same period in 2020. On August 26, the central ecological and environmental protection supervision team was stationed in Jilin, Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan provinces, which is expected to end on September 26. Secondly, from the automobile data, according to the ten day report of key enterprises according to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in August 2021, the sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 1.711 million, a month on month decrease of 8.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%; In terms of categories, the sales of passenger cars decreased by 17.5% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial vehicles decreased by 43.8% year-on-year. From January to August 2021, the cumulative sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 16.467 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.1%; In terms of categories, the sales of passenger cars increased by 15.1% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial vehicles increased by 5.4% year-on-year.

In terms of inventory, the stock of natural rubber in the previous period was 225354 tons (+ 5762 tons) as of September 3, the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 192480 tons (+ 3700 tons), and the domestic delivery inventory increased; In the previous period, the energy inventory of No. 20 rubber futures warehouse receipt was 30161 tons, a decrease of 917 tons compared with August 27 and an increase of 284 tons compared with the same period in 2020. The spot inventory in Qingdao continued to decline. It is reported that as of August 27, the total inventory of local natural rubber samples was 459700 tons, a month on month decrease of 9400 tons; Among them, the inventory in the free trade zone was 77600 tons, a month on month decrease of 0200 tons, the general trade inventory was 382100 tons, a month on month decrease of 9200 tons, and the natural rubber in Qingdao port is still in the state of de stocking, and the inventory of natural rubber is accelerated.

In terms of import and export: Tires: affected by the global epidemic and the continuous rise of freight, the problem of shipping will continue to affect China’s tire export: according to the analysis, since 2021, the quotation of shipping charges from Qingdao port to the Middle East, America, Europe and other regions has been rising, and Qingdao port to Daman, Saudi Arabia The sea freight for 40 foot containers in Jebel Ali and other ports in Dubai increased from US $3500-360 to US $7700-7800 at the beginning of the year, and the sea freight for Europe and America increased from about US $9000 to US $15000-20000 at the beginning of the year. The Middle East, America and Europe are the regions where domestic tires are intensively exported. The continuous rise of sea freight has increased the export pressure of domestic tire enterprises. Rubber: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7, China imported 529000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2021, down 24.3% from 699000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to August 2021, China imported 4.348 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 3.5% from 4.508 million tons in the same period in 2020.

As for the future, according to the analysis of the business society, from the macro perspective, the adjustment of the original oil price is over, and in the medium and short term, the oil price is still restricted by the increase of supply and the weakening of demand. At present, it has entered the traditional peak production and marketing season of “golden nine silver ten”, but the weak downstream demand caused by many factors is likely to lead to weak short-term shock of natural rubber; However, driven by the overall traditional consumption peak season, there should be a round of upward prices in the middle and late of the consumption peak season; Then, in the two months at the end of the year, due to the weather, the domestic rubber producing areas will gradually reduce the output, and the rubber price will also strengthen.