Commodity index: on September 5, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 94.96, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.89% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 12.62% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

The monitoring found that the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in China showed a slight downward trend last week. On August 30, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1661.11 yuan / ton, and on September 5, the mainstream price was 1756.67 yuan / ton, with a downward rate of 0.25%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring data of business society, the market of hydrochloric acid fell this week. The mainstream quotation was about 296.67 yuan / ton on August 30 and 293.33 yuan / ton on September 5, with a range of – 1.13%. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak, while the high market price of downstream ammonium chloride has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. Difficult delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a big problem.

LNG is used in the production process. Last week, the domestic mainstream price of LNG rose first and then fell. On August 30, the average price of domestic LNG was 5910 yuan / ton, and on September 5, the mainstream price was 6062.67 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.97%. The quotation from September 1 to 2 is 6110 yuan / ton, the lowest point is 5910 yuan / ton on August 30, and the maximum amplitude is 3.38%.

Downstream demand: at present, the epidemic situation in the water treatment industry and the price of raw materials have changed slightly, and the demand adjustment range is not large. The downstream purchase price is normal, and the demand tends to be stable.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, according to the traditional consumption characteristics, the subsequent market of polyaluminium chloride is more likely to be flat.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this week. The average price of domestic isopropanol was 7666.67 yuan / ton last Friday and 7200 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 6.09% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from July to September

Isopropanol prices fell at the beginning of the week. Up to now, most of the quotations of isopropanol in Shandong are about 7000-7300 yuan / ton; Most of the quotation range of Jiangsu isopropanol is about 7100-7200 yuan / ton; The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 7100 yuan / ton. Internationally, on August 31, the U.S. isopropanol closed higher, and the European isopropanol market closed higher. The decline of acetone slowed down this week, and the price of isopropanol is expected to stop falling and pick up.

In terms of raw material acetone, the current decline in acetone market has slowed down. According to commodity data monitoring, the average price of acetone was 6400 yuan / ton last Friday and 6300 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 1.56% during the week. At present, there is little fluctuation in the domestic acetone market. Although the market trading atmosphere is cold, the mentality of shippers can maintain range fluctuation, the enthusiasm of terminal follow-up is poor, and the operating rate of downstream plants has declined, and the firm offer is limited.

In terms of raw material propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price was under pressure this week. At the beginning of the week, the market was 7775 yuan / ton, and the weekend average price was 7617 yuan / ton, down 2.04%. Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that crude oil is weak and volatile, and the demand side needs to be improved. It is expected that the propylene market will be weak and volatile in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst of business society chemical branch believes that the overall demand of domestic isopropanol market is general. The price of propylene decreased, the price of acetone decreased, the support of raw materials for isopropanol was weak, and the price of isopropanol decreased. If the price of raw material acetone stops falling and rebounds next week, the isopropanol market will follow. It is expected that the price of isopropanol will stop falling in the short term. Pay attention to the changes in the news.

The rise of aluminum fluoride market remains the same

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride rose this week, and the aluminum fluoride market rose strongly. As of September 2, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8966.67 yuan / ton, up 1.13% from the price of 8866.67 yuan / ton last week (August 26); Compared with August 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of aluminum fluoride was 8500.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.49%. Aluminum fluoride market is strong.

Aluminum ingot prices rose during the week

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index was 118.80 on August 31, up 1.17 points from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). Aluminum prices rose sharply this week, and the aluminum market still rose. After hitting a record high on August 31, the price of aluminum ingots fell slightly on September 1, and then the aluminum price rebounded rapidly. The overall aluminum market rose, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride price remained.

The raw material market rose sharply

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of fluorite soared by 1.5% and the price of hydrofluoric acid soared by 6.2% this week. The market price of raw materials rose sharply, which was more favorable to the aluminum fluoride Market and increased the driving force for the rise of aluminum fluoride.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid, the raw material of aluminum fluoride, has soared this week, and the price of upstream fluorite has also risen sharply. The rise of raw material price has increased the cost of aluminum fluoride and stimulated the rise of aluminum fluoride price; The downstream aluminum ingot Market remains high, providing enough room for the rise of aluminum fluoride. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will rise sharply in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, on the 1st, the spot price of nickel was 150133.33 yuan / ton, down 0.45% from the previous day, up 23.18% year-on-year and 17.17% from the beginning of the year. Nickel prices rebounded slightly today after rising sharply yesterday. Nickel warehouse receipts in the previous period rose 1220 tons to 3735 tons today. LME nickel inventories fell 2010 tons to 192456 tons. Nickel price fundamentals changed little as a whole. In terms of nickel ore, the price of nickel ore at home and abroad continues to operate at a high level, and the nickel inventory warehouse receipt is at a low level as a whole. Macroscopically, loose monetary policy continued. Nickel prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, the average early trading price of silver market on August 31 was 5097.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 4.35% compared with the average early trading price of spot market in early August (August 1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 8.15%.

On August 31, the spot market price of gold was 377.71 yuan / g, a decrease of 0.65% compared with the early average price of 380.20 yuan / g in the spot market price in early August (8.1); Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 3.82%.

In August, the overall price of precious metals decreased first and then increased. After the overall tone of Jackson Hole meeting on Friday was biased, the price of precious metals improved.

Message side factor

American policy

On the 27th, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that QE will be reduced during the year, but stressed that it is still far from raising interest rates. The market interpreted it as doves, and the US bond yield fell, supporting the price of precious metals.

Future forecast

In the short term, precious metals have rebounded from the bottom recently, and the recent favorable factors have increased. The market’s expectation of precious metal prices has improved slightly, and the shock is expected to be strong. Recently, we will focus on the August non-agricultural data released on Friday, which may affect the contents of FOMC meeting in September.

In the medium term, the upward space of precious metal prices narrowed, mainly due to the current high inflation pressure in the United States, the core PCE remained at a high level of 3.6% year-on-year in July, and the employment data showed a steady recovery of the employment market. If non farm performance is strong in August and September, it is expected that precious metal prices will always be suppressed before the announcement of the Federal Reserve’s QE reduction plan within the year.