1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell slightly on August 9. The spot copper quotation was 69641.67 yuan / ton, down 0.21% from 69785 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, up 20.17% from the beginning of the year and 35.26% year-on-year.

On Friday, the non-agricultural data strengthened more than expected. The market raised the expectation of the Federal Reserve taper, which made the US dollar index strengthen sharply, put pressure on copper prices, and copper fluctuated downward the next week. Although the recent disturbance of copper mine continues, the weekly inventory in the previous period stopped denaturing, the domestic inventory increased instead, and the Federal Reserve taper is expected to increase, so it is difficult for copper prices to have a bright performance. The strike in South America is still pending, and the scope of power rationing in Southwest China is expanded. However, the state still emphasizes ensuring supply and stabilizing price, and the short-term rise and fall of copper price is expected to be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business agency, as of August 6, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 16333.33 yuan / ton, up 1.03% compared with the beginning of the week, down 2.78% month on month and 2% compared with the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of August 6, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 20500 yuan / ton, down 0.81% compared with the beginning of the week, down 7.87% month on month, and up 24.24% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of refrigerant R22 rose this week, and enterprises increased by about 200-500 yuan, shifting the focus upward. During the week, the raw material hydrofluoric acid operated steadily, while the price of methane oxide continued to decline, with a decline of about 12% during the week, and the cost support decreased. However, supported by the quota, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers was strong, which led to the overall rise of the market. There was a strong willingness to support the market by supporting the price, and the negotiation space was limited. At present, the market price of R22 is mostly in the range of 16000-16500 yuan / ton, about 16000-16500 yuan / ton in Shandong, about 16000-16500 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, about 16000-16500 yuan / ton in Hunan and about 16000-16500 yuan / ton in Guangzhou. The prices in various places are rising steadily.

This week, the refrigerant R134a market was stable and weak, and the price fell slightly. The raw material hydrofluoric acid operated stably in the week, the cost support was general, and the demand side continued to be poor. The cargo holders offered profits to ship goods for good, the sales pressure increased, and the profit was poor. For example, Dongyue chemical still did not restore the startup state, and the operators were more bearish on the future market. At present, the R134a market quotation is mostly in the range of 19500-23000 yuan / ton, about 19000-21000 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, about 19000-19500 yuan / ton in Hunan and about 20000-21000 yuan / ton in Guangzhou. The prices in various places are stable.

region R22 (yuan / ton) R134a (yuan / ton) date

Zhejiang region 16000-16500 19000-21000 August 6th

Shandong region 16000-16500 19800-21000 August 6th

Guangzhou area 16000-16500 20000-21000 August 6th

Hunan region 16000-16500 19000-19500 August 6th

In terms of raw materials, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable in July. Up to now, the mainstream price negotiated in various regions of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 9500-9800 yuan / ton. The quotation of some manufacturers is higher than the market price. The actual transaction market on the floor is normal. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is mainly stable. The spot supply of domestic hydrofluoric acid is slightly tight, and the price trend on the floor is temporarily stable.

Trichloromethane, on August 6, the methane chloride Market in Shandong was divided, and some manufacturers offered adjustment. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of dichloromethane is about 3950 ~ 4040 yuan / ton, the mainstream ex factory price of trichloromethane is 3090 yuan / ton, and the downstream inquiry is light.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that at present, the supporting force of the cost side is declining, but R22 is supported by quotas and the price has an upward performance. It is expected that it is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term; While R134a’s cost demand has both weakened, the shipment of cargo holders is under pressure, and there is still expected to be downward operation.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has increased slightly recently, with a shock rise. The average price of ethylene on the 4th was US $1148.25/ton, and the average price of ethylene on the 5th was US $1152.75/ton, an increase of 0.39%. The current price has increased by 11.84% month on month, and the current price has increased by 56.68% year-on-year.

Recently, the external ethylene market has shown an overall upward trend. The ethylene market price in Asia declined slightly. As of the 4th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 966-976 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 1001-1011 / T. The price center of ethylene market in Europe moved upward. As of the 4th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1364-1372 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1262-1276 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States continued to rise. As of the 4th, the price was US $1099-1117 / T. recently, the external ethylene market fluctuated and rose, the recent increase of ethylene in the United States was large, and ethylene in Europe also continued to fluctuate and rise. Generally speaking, the overall ethylene external market demand is good recently, the market trading atmosphere is active, the transaction situation is good, and the ethylene market as a whole shows an upward trend.

Internationally: on August 4, the international oil price fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $68.15/barrel, down US $2.41 or 3.41%, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $70.38/barrel, down US $2.08 or 2.87%. Oil prices have fallen for three consecutive trading days, mainly due to the unexpected sharp increase in crude oil inventories released by the U.S. energy information administration on Wednesday. In addition, the market’s concern about the slowdown in demand caused by delta virus has been further amplified, as well as the concern about the oversupply caused by the increase in production in oil producing countries.

The price of styrene has been lowered recently. At night, crude oil fell sharply, pure benzene and US dollar styrene both fell, and futures fell. However, some bargain hunters increased their positions slightly, suppressing today’s spot market. At the beginning of August, the port inventory increased, and there was still the expectation of accumulating inventory in a short time. In addition, the supply of Gulei styrene was increasing. In the downstream, the prices of EPS and PS remained stable, ABS fell slightly, the demand performance was general, mainly for just needed procurement, and the replenishment was limited. Unable to support the ethylene market.

The ethylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency believes that: at present, in terms of crude oil: the international oil price has fallen continuously recently, the market is pessimistic about the demand for crude oil, and the support for the ethylene market is weak. Therefore, the data analyst of the business agency predicts that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall next.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 4, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 9833 yuan / ton. Compared with August 1 (butanone reference price of 9166 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 667 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.27%, and compared with July 5 (butanone reference price of 8433 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1400 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.60%.

In August, the domestic butanone market rose sharply. At present, domestic shipping, water transportation and land transportation are very strict, and the transportation is relatively limited. In addition, in August, the butanone operation rate decreased, the butanone factory in Lanzhou was overhauled, the output was low, and the transportation was limited. In August, the butanone market showed a tight supply situation, the supply gap appeared, and the butanone price began to rise in early August. As of August 4, The reference price of domestic butanone market is 9500-10500 yuan / ton, which is about 500-1000 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference average price of domestic butanone market is 9833 yuan / ton, which is 667 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month, an increase of 7.27%.

Upstream, in July, the price of Shandong civil gas market rose, and the off-season market was not weak. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 4326.67 yuan / ton on July 1 and 4550.00 yuan / ton on July 31, with an increase of 5.16% in July. In July, affected by seasonal factors, due to the high weather temperature and weak terminal demand, the civil LPG market was in the traditional off-season. However, the off-season market was staged in July this year, and the civil gas market in Shandong was strong and upward. There were many positive factors in the liquefied gas market in July. At the end of June, with the introduction of CP price in July, propylene and butane increased significantly, and the inlet gas price increased. Moreover, the international crude oil price is at a high level. In addition, in terms of supply, the market supply of some manufacturers in Shandong market is reduced due to unit maintenance. Under multiple favorable factors, the liquefied gas market is supported to rise. However, there are still negative factors in the market. The weak terminal demand in the off-season has brought some constraints to the upstream route. The enthusiasm for entering the market in the upper half of the downstream is general, and the second half of the month is more positive, but the overall demand has not improved significantly.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the overall performance of the domestic butanone market is still in short supply. Therefore, the butanone data analysts of the business society believe that in August, the domestic butanone market will mainly operate at a high level.

The cyclohexanone market fluctuated slightly, Jiangsu Haili plant was shut down for maintenance, and some enterprises purchased in the market. After the sales pressure of cyclohexanone factory was relieved, the price rose. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 3, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China was 10380 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 4.59% and a year-on-year increase of 84.26%.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of August 33:

region ., Price

East China 10500-10600 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China 11000-11100 yuan / ton, cash delivery, detailed discussion on actual orders

Shandong region 10400-10500 yuan / ton cash delivery

In terms of raw materials and pure benzene, due to the loss of most downstream products and less demand for short supply in the market, the intention of spot purchase in the cycle is not expected, and the overall atmosphere of the market is weakening. After that, the price of styrene fell, followed by pure benzene. Downstream, caprolactam, caprolactam unit, Heze Xuyang caprolactam will restart a line at the end of this month, and the external cyclohexanone recovery unit will have little change temporarily.

The recent market of cost pure benzene mainly fell. After the market price of cyclohexanone rose in some areas, the downstream reaction was flat. The cyclohexanone analysts of business society expect that the short-term cyclohexanone market will enter the consolidation stage.