1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. This week, the factory quotation of domestic salt lake potassium chloride was 3190.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 47.69% compared with the same period last year. The market price is about 3700-3800 yuan / ton. On the whole, the domestic potassium chloride market was temporarily stable this week. On December 10, the commodity index of potassium chloride was 101.27, the same as yesterday, down 2.45% from the highest point of 103.81 in the cycle (2021-10-12), and up 73.85% from the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 3190 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui kemico’s 62% Russian White potassium distribution quotation is 4100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui kemico’s 60% white distribution quotation is 3950 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou 62% Russian White potassium distribution quotation is 4100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Jinan bayat potassium chloride distribution quotation is 5000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. The selling price of potassium chloride actually built in Shanghai is 4600 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4000-4100 yuan / ton. Border trade 62% Russian White potassium will not be quoted temporarily.

 
From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate was temporarily stable this week, with a quotation of 8133.33 yuan / ton, up 27.58% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate was temporarily stable this week, with a quotation of 5900.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 42.17% over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has been consolidated at a high level, and the demand for potassium chloride has increased.

3、 Future forecast

In mid December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may rise slightly. The start-up of Salt Lake and zangge units has not reached full opening, and they have successively entered the winter maintenance period. The output of potassium chloride is gradually declining, and the supply of goods is tight. The winter storage market has started one after another, and traders take a small amount of goods. From the perspective of industrial demand, the overall operating rate of the downstream market of potassium chloride is not high, and it is mainly just needed to purchase. While the international potash price is high, the domestic potash is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the domestic potassium chloride price may fluctuate slightly in the short term, focusing on the news related to large contracts.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (December 9): 6150 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the acetic acid market is temporarily stable and wait-and-see operation. The supply of acetic acid in the domestic acetic acid market is sufficient and the downstream demand is weak. The maintenance of Yangzi Bibi acetic acid plant in Nanjing in East China can effectively alleviate the early market decline. The on-site operators mainly wait-and-see, the enterprises negotiate and ship, the actual transaction price is low, the downstream just needs to be maintained, and the market operates stably.

Future forecast: wait and see the short-term acetic acid market, and pay attention to the market supply.

Trade name: diammonium phosphate

Latest price: 3600 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of diammonium phosphate was stable on December 8, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. At present, the market of diammonium is weak and the trend is weak. The demand at home and abroad is poor, and most enterprises have no quotation for the time being. The cost side support is acceptable, and the price of diammonium has no fluctuation for the time being. Today, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3450-3600 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction can be negotiated.

Future forecast: the price of diammonium phosphate will run smoothly in the short term.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (December 7): 1933.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business society, the price trend of sulfur in East China is reduced by a narrow margin today. The average price of solid and liquid sulfur production is reduced by 3.33% compared with the previous working day. The price of liquid sulfur is reduced by 80-100 yuan / ton. The price of sulfur in other parts of China is reduced to varying degrees. The price of solid and liquid sulfur in North China is reduced by 40-60 yuan / ton simultaneously, and the price of solid and liquid sulfur in Shandong is reduced by 50-70 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of refineries in China is low, the downstream demand is general, the progress of winter fertilizer storage market is slow, there are few new orders of phosphate fertilizer, and the terminal consumption does not support sulfur, so the industry holds a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

Future forecast: the short-term sulfur market is mainly sorted and operated.

Price list of magnesium ingots in Shaanxi on December 6

Market analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on the 6th, the ex factory tax price of 99.9% of the mainstream areas was 39333.33 yuan / ton, up 4.42% from yesterday’s price. The factory quotation in the main production areas of Shaanxi was increased by 1500 yuan / ton, including tax.

Supply and demand: on the one hand, the spot inventory of magnesium ingots is seriously insufficient at this stage; On the other hand, downstream procurement has taken root one after another recently, which is the main factor leading to the rapid rise of magnesium price.

In terms of policy: the central ecological and environmental protection supervision team carried out supervision work in Shaanxi in December. With the further strengthening of environmental protection in December, the magnesium price has been promoted to rise moderately. Although some magnesium manufacturers said that the impact of environmental protection supervision on magnesium ingot production capacity is unknown, the current market optimism is diffuse.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that in view of the current shortage of magnesium ingots and the impact of environmental uncertainty, magnesium ingots are expected to be strong in the short term.