Domestic p-xylene price trend:

As can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart, the market price of p-xylene declined this week. As of the 4th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 5700 yuan / ton, down 8.22 from 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 55.81% year-on-year.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical operates stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong operates at full load, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical operates stably, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units were started, and the domestic p-xylene supply was relatively normal, but some overseas units were still under maintenance. Due to the general downstream demand, the domestic p-xylene price trend fell sharply. The closing price of international crude oil fell and the PX external price fell. As of the 2nd, the closing prices were US $785-787 / T FOB Korea and US $803-805 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has been relatively stable. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene units in Asia is more than 60%. The PX supply in Asia is normal, and the PX external closing price has fallen sharply, The price trend of domestic p-xylene market declined.

Crude oil prices fell sharply this week. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported as USD 66.50/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported as USD 69.67/barrel. Firstly, since the middle of the year, the outbreak of the European epidemic has triggered investors’ concerns about the demand prospect, and the oil price began to enter the downward channel. Second, in order to deal with domestic inflation, the United States has been committed to suppressing the decline of oil prices. On the 19th, it announced that it would unite with multinational governments to release strategic oil reserves. Affected by supply expectations, oil prices are falling sharply. Finally, on the 26th, a new crown variant strain was found, causing market panic, market concerns about the recovery of future demand, a huge earthquake in the capital market, and oil prices fell sharply with the global stock market. The sharp decline of oil price has a certain negative impact on the domestic petrochemical market, and the price trend of p-xylene has declined.

The downstream PTA market price trend declined this week. As of the 4th, the average PTA market price was 4400-4500 yuan / ton, and the PTA price fell by 6.62% this week. The PTA Market of raw materials declined. With the restart of 1.5 million tons of Honggang petrochemical and 2.2 million tons of Hengli Dalian, the spot supply in the market was sufficient and the accumulated inventory was maintained. At present, the operating rate of the industry was maintained at around 81%. The performance of orders in the terminal market is still tired, and the downstream polyester factories also began to reduce production. The plan of reducing production by 20% based on the current output will be implemented one after another. In the follow-up, depending on the market situation, or increase the intensity of production reduction to 25%. At present, the operating load of the polyester industry has fallen below 83%, PTA demand performance is insufficient, procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market of the textile industry is poor, The market price trend of p-xylene declined.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current crude oil price is weak affected by the epidemic, and the cost side support begins to weaken. In addition, the downstream PTA and textile market are poor, PTA stocks are accumulated, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene may remain low and stabilize the market temporarily in the later stage.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (November 30): 14375.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic TDI market is sorted and operated. In terms of supply, the TDI device operates normally, the factory has no inventory pressure, the downstream purchase just needs to be followed up, the on-site trading is weak, the demand for terminal products is weak, the export orders are reduced, the on-site new order transaction is not smooth, and the support for TDI is weak. According to market news, Wanhua Fujian plant will be shut down for maintenance near December 10, and the quotation of individual manufacturers will be slightly increased. At present, the quotation of TDI domestic goods in East China distribution market is about 13800-14000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 14200-14500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation.

Future forecast: wait and see the short-term TDI market, pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

In November, the epoxy resin market continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business society, the offer of East China liquid resin market was 31000 yuan / ton on November 1, and fell to 27500-28000 yuan / ton on November 30, with an offer decrease of 11%. The sharp decline in the epoxy resin market was mainly affected by the decline in the raw material end, the negative cost side intensified, and the epoxy resin continued to decline.

In November, the domestic bisphenol a market rose and fell repeatedly with high fluctuation frequency. According to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic bisphenol a market offer was 18500 yuan / ton on November 1, and 16875 yuan / ton on November 30, with a decrease of 8.75% in the month. Among them, November 3 was the lowest point in the month, and the offer was 15800 yuan / ton. In November, there were frequent fluctuations. As of press time, the offer of East China mainstream market is 16700 yuan / ton, and that of North China mainstream market is 16700 yuan / ton. On November 30, the bisphenol a commodity index was 161.78, down 42.87% from the highest point of 283.19 in the cycle (2021-04-16), and up 124.41% from the lowest point of 72.09 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2020 to the present) in December, the bisphenol a market was cautious, focusing on interval consolidation and operation. The market fluctuation was mainly affected by the situation of domestic factories, bidding and downstream demand.

In November, the price of epichlorohydrin fell weakly. At the end of the month, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 16133.33 yuan / ton, down 18.66% compared with the price on November 1. The market atmosphere was light. In the short term, the market of epichlorohydrin may be dominated by weak consolidation. In the first ten days, the cost support of propylene method was weak, the cost support of glycerol method was strong, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, the enterprise shipment was under pressure, and the price weakened. With the rise of raw propylene, the downstream epoxy resin price rose broadly, the market support was strengthened, the inquiry atmosphere improved, and the market rose, but the demand was still insufficient, and the price fell again. In the middle of the year, the price of raw propylene was weak, the cost support was weakened, the cost pressure of glycerol method remained, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry and procurement was not high, the shipment of enterprises was under pressure, the weak demand side dragged down market confidence, the trading atmosphere was light, and the price fell. In the latter half of the year, the supply was sufficient, the demand side was weak, and the focus of the negotiation weakened. With the gradual rise of the price of raw propylene, the cost support was gradually strengthened, and the manufacturers’ intention to lower the price was not strong. After the centralized replenishment in the downstream, the market atmosphere was light. At present, the demand side was weak, and the overall situation fell in the latter half of the year.

Device: the overall operating rate of liquid resin is about 60%; The operating rate of solid resin is 4-5%.

From the perspective of the chemical industry, it is still in the downward channel, and the epoxy resin market is greatly affected by the raw material end. The new production capacity of bisphenol A in December and the situation of domestic factories still need to be paid special attention. Business analysts believe that in the later stage, they pay more attention to the impact of industrial policies. According to the current situation, the epoxy resin market may continue to bottom in December.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (November 30): 14350.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic TDI market is weak, the supply side TDI device operates normally, the factory has no inventory pressure, the downstream demand is weak, the on-site trading is weak, the demand for terminal products is weakened, the on-site transaction of new orders is not smooth, the export orders are reduced, the support for TDI is insufficient, and the TDI market is sorted downward under the supply and demand game. At present, the quotation of TDI domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 13800-14000 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 14000-14200 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation.

Future forecast: the short-term TDI market will remain stable for the time being, with specific attention to market supply and downstream follow-up.

Crude oil fell “cliff style”, a new variant virus in South Africa triggered a huge wave in the market, and US oil plunged 13%, the largest decline since April last year. As of the close of last Friday (November 26), the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $10.24, or 13.1%, to $68.15/barrel. London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil (ice) futures fell $9.5, or 11.6%, to $72.72/barrel.

PTA prices fell. According to the price monitoring of business society, the domestic PTA spot market fell sharply today (November 29), and the average market price was 4619 yuan / ton, down 3.31% from the previous day and up 38.14% year-on-year. The main futures 2201 closed 4632 and settled 4650, down 238 or 4.89%. Honggang petrochemical and Yadong petrochemical units are about to be overhauled, and the start-up of domestic PTA units will decline, but it will remain at the high level of 81.71% as a whole, and the supply shows a slight accumulation of reserves.

In addition, the recent performance of orders in the terminal market is still weak. It is reported that on November 25, a number of mainstream polyester factories in China discussed and reached a consensus to implement the plan of reducing production by 20% based on the current output, which has been implemented successively in the past two days. In the follow-up, depending on the market situation or increase the intensity of production reduction to 25%, the current operating load of the polyester industry has fallen below 84%, and the PTA demand performance is weak.

Business analysts believe that the short-term international crude oil price plummeted, the cost support collapsed, superimposed with the production reduction expectations of many mainstream polyester factories, the pressure on PTA supply and demand increased, and the short-term PTA price is expected to continue to decline.