The three quarters of 2021 have passed, and the epoxy resin market has twists and turns. The three quarters show an “n” trend, rising first, then falling and then rising, which is basically consistent with the three quarters. The changes of epoxy resin in the first three quarters mainly fluctuate with the cost side. Specifically:

The first stage: the epoxy resin soared to a new high and exceeded 40000 yuan under the double kill of supply and demand

Affected by the significant upward trend of raw material bisphenol A and driven by high cost, epoxy resin showed a unilateral upward trend in the first quarter. According to the monitoring data of business society, the low offer of liquid resin in East China was 21750 yuan / ton at the beginning of January, pushed up to 34000 yuan / ton at the end of March, and the liquid epoxy resin in East China soared to 40500 yuan / ton as of April 19, an increase of 86.2%. In the first half of the year, the price of liquid resin has reached the peak in recent three years. The factories have closed their offers one after another. The factory order schedule is relatively full until next month, and the solid resin is also rising. The solid resin around Huangshan is also increasing significantly. The offer of solid resin ranges from 33500-34000 yuan / ton, with a large increase.

Epoxy resin has been rising wildly. On the one hand, orders from the downstream market continue, and there is no pressure on factory shipments. On the other hand, stimulated by mutual benefits, the upstream raw material bisphenol A has reached the “sky high price”, and the cost support is strong. Affected by the epidemic in the first half of 2020, the trend of bisphenol A and epoxy resin is at a relatively low level. As can be seen from the above figure, entering 2021, Driven by the tight supply in the domestic market, the impact of extremely cold weather abroad in the first quarter, and the rise of peripheral bulk commodities, bisphenol A and epoxy resin continued to brush new highs in the new year. Bisphenol A was offered to 30000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 250%. Another important raw material epichlorohydrin is also chasing high, which further stimulates the epoxy resin to continue to chase high.

The acceptance of high prices in the downstream is acceptable. At present, although the downstream is miserable, there are also production cuts, but the overall balance is still maintained. Overseas orders continue and domestic wind power projects are hot, with good short-term demand. However, in the long run, if the market continues to rise, the cost cannot be “transferred” to the downstream, and more downstream have to choose alternatives. According to the business agency, by mid April, the operating rate of liquid resin was about 80%. The factory mainly delivered early orders, and the price of new orders was still rising; Due to the influence of environmental protection inspectors of solid epoxy resin, the operating rate remains low, and the negotiation of new single price is cautious.

The second stage: the demand decreased sharply in the second quarter, the cost could not be “transferred” to the downstream, and the epoxy resin plummeted.

At the beginning of the second quarter, the market continued the previous trend and kept reaching new highs. Due to the large increase of epoxy resin, it was difficult for the downstream to digest high priced raw materials. From the market in late April to the end of June, the price of domestic liquid epoxy resin E-51 began to continuously adjust downward, mainly because of the substantial reduction of downstream demand and the sharp rise of early price, resulting in the negative profit of some downstream customers, In addition, there are a few substitutes in some terminal industries, and the downstream demand for epoxy resin is gradually reduced. From May to June, the demand for downstream wind power generation decreased sharply, the electronics and coating industry also showed a downward trend, the overall demand decreased significantly, the manufacturer’s inventory increased, the new single offer made profits and suppressed the price trend of raw material bisphenol A, and the market price was in a downward channel.

The third stage: the raw material end rose repeatedly, driven by high cost, and the epoxy resin stopped falling and rose again.

From July to August, epoxy resin is mainly affected by raw material bisphenol A. In August, the average price of bisphenol A exceeded 27000 yuan / ton, the second monthly high in the year. Driven by cost, epoxy resin entered the upward channel again. In particular, every Wednesday, the auction of bisphenol A by a major petrochemical enterprise in East China has attracted the attention of market operators. The auction price directly affects the trend of bisphenol A. in addition, due to the tight supply of bisphenol A inside and outside the plate and the delay of imported shipments, high-level operation will become the mainstream trend of bisphenol A. Therefore, driven by high cost, the epoxy resin market continues to rise.

In September, bisphenol A plunged sharply and plummeted. In early September, epoxy resin fell in a narrow range, but then another important raw material, cyclochlorine, soared due to the influence of double control, and epoxy resin continued to maintain an upward trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the offer of East China liquid resin market was 35233 yuan / ton on September 10, and that of East China liquid epoxy resin market was 37700 yuan / ton on September 27, an increase of 7%. So far, the offer of East China liquid epoxy resin market is 37500-38000 yuan / ton, barrel ex factory price, and the offer of Huangshan solid resin market is 29000-30000 yuan / ton, The sharp rise of epichlorohydrin is the main reason driving the rise of epoxy resin. On the one hand, the cost support is strong, on the other hand, due to the influence of “dual control”, the start-up of Jiangsu unit has fallen sharply, and the supply is expected to decrease significantly. According to the bulk list data of business society, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin was 20333.33 yuan / ton on September 17, up 28.15% compared with Monday’s price, 43.87% compared with August 17, and 55.22% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. In addition, the price of raw material propylene has increased, the price of raw material glycerol is high, and the cost has a positive boost to the market. Under the influence of “double control”, the load of some units is reduced and shut down, the overall operating rate of the market is declining, and the shortage of goods is increasing. In addition, the “double festival” is approaching, there is a demand for goods in the downstream, and the market quotation is greatly increased. As the price rises to a high level, the downstream just needs to follow up passively.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the trend of epoxy resin and bisphenol A is consistent from January to August, and the correlation is large. The correlation between epoxy resin and cyclochlorine is large in September. The trend of epoxy resin in the three quarters is greatly affected by the raw material end. Where will the epoxy resin market go in the fourth quarter?

1. Overall capacity increase in the second half of the year

In the first half of 2021, the domestic epoxy resin production capacity increased by 113000 T / A, all of which are liquid epoxy resin units. By the end of June, the total capacity of epoxy resin in China had reached 2.35 million tons / year. In the second half of 2021, a total of 515000 tons of epoxy resin is planned to be added. If the plant is on schedule, the industrial capacity will increase by more than 20% in the second half of the year. In addition, some units have capacity expansion plans.

2. Double control affects the reduction of start-up load

Under the influence of dual control, the supply and demand of epoxy resin are unbalanced at different stages. The major domestic liquid resin factories are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and these regions are also greatly affected. The 200000 ton capacity units in Jiangsu are shut down, and the restart time is to be determined. There are also production restrictions in other regions. In October, Nantong Xingchen and Changchun chemical industry plan to shut down for maintenance, increasing the volatility of the market.

3. Driven by policy, the downstream wind power industry may improve in the fourth quarter

Although epoxy resin continues to rise under the pressure of cost, the downstream transfer situation is not optimistic. The goods preparation near the National Day is general, the recognition of high prices is not high, and the high transaction situation is not optimistic. However, driven by the dual control policy, the wind power industry is expected to gradually revive in the fourth quarter. Although it can not be compared with the peak period, it will be better than September, which will form a good support for the epoxy resin market.

In conclusion, the epoxy resin Market in 2021 mainly changes with the cost of raw materials, mainly from the cost changes caused by the price fluctuations of bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin. The epoxy resin profit in the first three quarters was good in April, but the high cost downstream was difficult to digest, so we had to find more substitutes or reduce the demand. From the perspective of business society, the downstream wind power and other industries are still worth looking forward to in the fourth quarter. The demand side will continue to improve, and the downstream electronic and electrical appliances, coatings and materials will also increase. The demand remains high. At present, the price of epoxy resin has fallen, and the trading volume has not been driven during the national day. Business society expects that there will still be a wave of favorable market in the fourth quarter and pays attention to the changes in the cost side of raw materials.

Commodity index: on September 28, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 101.56, up 1.2 points from yesterday, down 6.83% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 20.45% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

It is found that the price of chemical raw materials has risen under the recent national “double control” policy. Under the comprehensive influence of factors such as the substantial increase of raw material cost and production cost, the reduction of spot inventory and national day order arrangement, the market of water treatment products has risen rapidly recently. The manufacturer’s quotation is cautious, the pricing and delivery are subject to the price of the day, and oral reservation is not accepted, but the order arrangement is subject to payment. As a result, there are many shocking enterprise notices in the circle of friends, as shown in the figure:

As shown in the figure, according to the data of business society, the mainstream market of polyaluminium chloride in China has risen sharply recently. On September 14, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride was 1762 yuan / ton, which rose slightly to about 1878 yuan / ton on September 28, an increase of 6.62% in half a month.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society shows that the downstream demand is good this month, and the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rises. The quotation rises from 293.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 299.80 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.21%. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market price of downstream ammonium chloride decreased slightly, which had a negative impact on hydrochloric acid. The downstream ammonium chloride market fell slightly recently. The quotation fell from 1170.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1115.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 55.00 yuan / ton, down 4.70%, up 79.84% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream white carbon black market rose slightly, and the quotation increased from 5100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 5300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 200.00 yuan / ton, or 3.92%, up 12.77% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market rose and fell, and the purchase enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid was general.

LNG is used in the production process. The mainstream market price of liquefied natural gas in China rose sharply from the 14th to the 16th in the middle of the year, about 10%. Then the market fluctuated and decreased slightly. In the half month of the 28th, the mainstream price in the domestic market rose from 5833 yuan / ton to about 6290 yuan / ton, an increase of about 7.83%. It is reported that the liquid plant has strong sentiment of supporting the price. Under the circumstances of strict dual control of energy consumption and reduced demand of downstream gas consuming enterprises this month, the price of LNG remains volatile and the market is relatively strong. In the future, it is expected that the domestic liquid price will generally operate stably in the short term, but it is inevitable to reduce the price and arrange the inventory near the National Day holiday.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the current market of water treatment industry is rising sharply, the procurement pressure of downstream enterprises is increasing, and the driving force is weakening before the national day. In the context of rising raw material costs, polyaluminium chloride market still has upward support in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride increased slightly this week. As of September 26, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation remained at 13533.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.50% over the average price of 13333.33 yuan / ton on September 20, and an increase of 15.01% over the same period last month.

On September 26, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 127.49, up 0.32 points from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 149.10% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The start-up of domestic benzene maleic anhydride market increased this week. International crude oil rose and domestic chemical prices rose; The operating rate of downstream unsaturated resin decreased slightly, the resin market rose, the resin market just needed to be purchased, and the operation was cautious under power restriction conditions. As of the 26th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 13000 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 13000 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 13500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Hebei was about 13500 yuan / ton, and the solid anhydride in South China was about 13800 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene fell continuously this week, and the price fell broadly. The average price of pure benzene was 8480 yuan / ton on September 19 and 7760 yuan / ton on September 26, down 720 yuan / ton or 8.49% from last week. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong fell sharply, at 8860 yuan / ton on the 20th and 8080 yuan / ton on the 26th, down 780 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane rose. As of September 26, the price in Shandong was 5540 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 38th week of 2021 (9.20-9.24), there are 51 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 19 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 19.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were organosilicon DMC (39.68%), phosphoric acid (23.45%) and acetic acid (22.30%). A total of 20 commodities decreased month on month, and 8 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were dichloromethane (- 22.64%), chloroform (- 9.57%) and butadiene (- 7.83%). Both rose or fell by 2.39% this week.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market supply is limited, and some factories are pre sold to the National Day holiday. There is no inventory pressure in the factories, and the supply and demand is good. However, recently, due to the impact of film restrictions in Jiangsu, the resin starts or decreases, and the market wait-and-see mood increases. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

Product Name: n-butanol

Latest price (September 26): 12833 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business agency, on September 26, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fell sharply. The average ex factory price of n-butanol was 10333 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was reduced by 2067 yuan / ton, a decrease of 16.67%. The downstream plant of n-butanol started at low load, and the demand for n-butanol decreased significantly. Near the national day, the downstream goods preparation performance was flat. The n-butanol plant sold goods at a profit, and the ex factory price of n-butanol was greatly reduced.

Future forecast: before the festival, the downstream goods preparation of n-butanol is mainly cautious, and it is unlikely to increase the operating rate of downstream devices before the festival. It is expected that the n-butanol market will mainly maintain stable operation in the days before the festival.

On September 24, the domestic cobalt price rose

According to the data monitoring of business agency, on September 24, the domestic cobalt market continued to rise, the cobalt price rose, and the domestic cobalt market rose. On September 24, the cobalt price was 381200.00 yuan / ton, up 0.69% from 378600.00 yuan / ton on the previous trading day (September 23).

Summary of cobalt Market

In the international market, the international cobalt price has risen continuously; In the domestic market, during the Mid Autumn Festival, spot trading in the domestic cobalt Market stagnated. Affected by the dual control of energy, some enterprises are expected to stop production and resume work after the national day, which exacerbated the shortage of electrolytic cobalt supply and raised the quotation of electrolytic cobalt. Overall, the rising momentum of cobalt market is strong, which stimulates the rise of domestic cobalt market.

Over the past 21 years, the price of ternary materials has increased by 52%, the price of negative materials has increased by 70%, the price of electrolyte has increased by 151%, and the cost of raw materials for lithium batteries has increased sharply. Since the beginning of the year, the cost of battery has increased by 17000 yuan! The price of the whole vehicle has increased by at least 5%. At present, new energy vehicle enterprises are expanding market share, and most of them will not choose to increase the price to affect sales. At present, vehicle enterprises mostly lower the price of battery enterprises, and basically do not accept the battery price increase to ensure their own profits, with little impact. Since this year, the cost pressure of battery enterprises has increased sharply, and it is difficult to conduct downward. Battery enterprises have poor acceptance of high priced raw materials, downstream enterprises have great resistance to the rise of cobalt price, and there is great downward pressure on cobalt market.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that the recent rise in international cobalt prices, the decline in domestic cobalt Market Construction and the insufficient supply of cobalt market have stimulated the rise of cobalt prices. However, in the long run, downstream enterprises have low acceptance of high price cobalt, and the rising support of cobalt market is insufficient, and the downward pressure remains. It is expected that the shock will stabilize after the slight rise of cobalt price in the future.